EARLY in the season, it seemed a fait accompli the No.1 draftee from last year, Sam Walsh, was destined to win the NAB AFL Rising Star Award. Now, the stats reveal he might not deserve to finish on the podium.

That's the verdict from Champion Data, which has a surprise name in the top three, ahead of the ultra-impressive Blue.

Using the Official AFL Player Ratings, which take into account a variety of numbers to determine an individual's effectiveness, boom Tigers backman Sydney Stack sits at No.1 among this season's first-year players.

Only those who have lined up in at least eight matches qualify, and the rankings are based on their average Player Ratings score, rather than their total.

Coming in second is supremely talented Port Adelaide forward Connor Rozee* (*Rozee has more total points than Stack but Rozee has played 12 games compared to Stack's 11).

Then, in third place, in a spot higher than many might expect, is Western Bulldogs young gun Bailey Smith.

AFL PLAYER RATINGS Who are your club's leaders?

Walsh (who has played 13 games and is third overall in total points) finally comes in at fourth, ahead of North Melbourne's tantalising prospect Tarryn Thomas.

Listen to the AFL Fantasy Podcast with The Traders at Apple Podcasts, Spotify and Google Podcasts.

Keep in mind these rankings take into account only those recruited in the past few months, so Gryan Miers, who has been crucial to Geelong's resurgence and a member of the 2017 draft class, isn't included.

He would have been equal-second with Rozee if he was, pushing Walsh further down the standings.

2017 draftee Gryan Miers was the R8 NAB AFL Rising Star nominee. Picture: AFL Photos

Walsh has acquitted himself well in several areas. He is among the top-50 in the competition for looseball gets, uncontested marks and pressure applied.

However, his wayward goalkicking, with 3.6 and another three complete misses, hurts his standing.

If he had have converted at the expected accuracy, compared to how other players finished their shots from similar positions, Walsh's Player Ratings score would have been on par with Rozee's.

Then there's Walsh's field kicking. Walsh is No.16 in the AFL for turnovers when under no pressure.

Furthermore, in five of his 13 games, he has had a kick rating of -10 per cent or worse.

Kick rating provides context around the difficulty of a player's attempted kick, taking into account how much pressure was on him.

That means in five of Walsh's matches, he delivered the ball by foot at least 10 per cent more inaccurately than what would be expected, compared to other players.

It's a trait Walsh will likely improve as he becomes more accustomed to the speed of the elite level, based on what he showed at junior level, but it's interesting to note how that compares with others around him.

For instance, Stack is No.4 in the AFL for disposals per turnover, Thomas is No.30 and Smith is No.2 for kick rating on short kicks.

Find AFL Exchange on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts and Spotify.