LOCKOUT following round one has lifted but it could be a long wait before the next lot of AFL Fantasy points are scored.

Coaches will have to sit tight until June, at least, before the next lockout will be in effect. There are plenty of weeks to stew on the possible trade scenarios following a round one like we've never seen before. 

The extended layoff has called for three trades to be made available ahead of 'round two'.

RAGE TRADES Make changes to your Fantasy team now

An extra trade has been added to allow coaches some greater flexibility in the lead up to the next lockout. There is a lot of unknown about what the remainder of the season will look like. AFL Fantasy is committed to remain agile and flexible in the ever-changing landscape of AFL through this pandemic.

Plans are in place for a range of scenarios regarding the fixture. Fantasy coaches will learn to adapt to - and possibly even enjoy - the new strategies due to the challenges faced in these unprecedented times.

Listen to the AFL Fantasy Podcast with The Traders at Apple Podcasts, Spotify and Google Podcasts.  

Round one price movements

Prices change based on each player's performance in Fantasy Classic. If a player outperforms their value, their price increases, if they score below their value, their price decreases. As the season goes on, their most recent score is included in a formula that takes into account their performances over recent weeks which dictates all price changes.

The 16-minute quarters didn't make a difference to how prices are calculated as any movement is based on the total number of points scored in the round. All prices add up to the same figure each week, so for all of the price increases, there has to be the same amount decreasing.

Jack Viney's value increased the most in round one based on his score of 132. His value was equivalent to an average of 82 (in the old figures), so his 132, which would have been 165 if extrapolated for 20-minute quarters, saw his price skyrocket.

We will need to rejig our thinking with the new scores this season.

If you multiply a 2020 score by 1.25, that can give you an idea of an equivalent score in previous seasons. 80 is the new 100, so anything over 100 this year is going to be a super-score of 125-plus. Going back the other way, you can multiply a pre-2020 score by 0.8 to see what the equivalent is for this year.

The biggest price changes following round one, both positive and negative, were from players with low ownership. The exception from the top 10 increases was Sam Naismith who appears in 32 per cent of teams, but half of his owners had him on the bench.

Top 10 price increases after round one

Top 10 price decreases after round one

Breakevens ahead of round two

A breakeven is the score a player needs to achieve to maintain their value. This figure is a guide as the total number of Fantasy points scored in a round can fluctuate. However, it gives a good indication of what a player needs to do for a price rise or fall.

Players who priced at under $300,000 dominate the lower breakevens. Marlion Pickett’s score of 60 saw him increase $26,000 and joins NAB Rising Star nominee Sam Sturt as the players with the lowest breakevens ahead of the next round. Even if they ended up with one kick (3 points), their price would continue to increase. In fact, they would need to give away four free kicks (-3 points for a free against) before their price would head south.

Lowest breakevens after round one

Marlion Pickett (MID, $196,000) -11
Sam Sturt (FWD, $197,000) -11
Jarrod Brander (DEF/FWD, $240,000) -4
Ryan Gardner (FWD, $189,000) -3
Tyler Brown (MID, $189,000) -2
Sam Naismith (RUC, $314,000) -2
Curtis Taylor (MID, $188,000) -2
Justin McInerney (MID, $189,000) -2
Mitchell Georgiades (FWD, $258,000) 2
Matthew Rowell (MID, $292,000) 5

Many popular high-priced players underperformed in round one. Patrick Dangerfield (40), Josh Dunkley (59), Lachie Whitfield (68) and Jake Lloyd (55) all averaged 107 or more last season and were well below their best last weekend. Their scores were equivalent to 50, 74, 85 and 69 last season, therefore their prices took a hit and are likely to continue to drop in price in the future with due to their high breakevens.

If you're an owner, the advice is to hold onto your premiums. Non-owners should always look at breakeven numbers to see who could drop in price and be a bargain buy in the weeks to come.

Highest breakevens after round one

Jarrod Witts (RUC, $742,000) 114
Patrick Dangerfield (MID, $768,000) 114
Josh Dunkley (MID, $804,000) 105
Lachie Whitfield (MID/FWD, $829,000) 104
Jake Lloyd (DEF, $775,000) 104
Matt Crouch (MID, $768,000) 103
Jack Ziebell (MID/FWD, $634,000) 103
Brad Crouch (MID, $782,000) 102
Marcus Bontempelli (MID, $755,000) 102
Elliot Yeo (MID, $740,000) 101 

*Breakevens for all players are available to Fantasy Coach subscribers on the website and app.

Top Fantasy Classic coaches after round one

Josh’s team 9th Place racked up the most Fantasy points for round one. It featured some of the top scorers of the round and unique selections, including Jack Viney (132) and Jeremy Howe (110). Josh's team structure, which featured a lot of mid-priced selections, allowed him to play just four sub-$300k players on field.

Stay tuned for updates on the 2020 AFL Fantasy season via the Fantasy Hub. Follow AFL Fantasy on Twitter and 'like' the Facebook page to join in the conversation.