ARE YOU from the camp that thinks Eddie Betts is comfortably the game's best small forward in the past decade?
Not so fast, at least until you've given one Hawk some serious consideration – and it ain't Cyril Rioli.
Hawthorn's resident sharpshooter and 2018 Coleman Medal contender Luke Breust is the man in question, closing any perceived gap to the Crow with his devastating efficiency.
Both stars were discovered on the draft scrapheap: Betts, 31, was a pre-season selection, while Breust, 27, was a rookie pick.
Betts is No.1 among small forwards if only total goals and goal assists are taken into account since Breust played his first match in 2011, with the Hawk second in both.
The picture becomes murkier once you dig deeper, including the fact Breust averages almost one score involvement per game more than Betts.
The modern small forward is unrecognisable, in some ways, to even the days of former Saints champion Stephen Milne, who did his work between 2001 and 2013.
Goals are still great, but the job description these days, not just at Richmond, places every bit as much importance on their ability to pour on the pressure.
They are expected to be 'two-way players', to borrow from NBA parlance.
That's where Breust sits favourably in AFL.com.au's handpicked field of little men in attack, behind only his ex-teammate Rioli.
To make the cut, the footballer had to have played at least seven seasons since Breust's arrival, so as to more accurately compare and contrast within modern expectations.
They also had to be offensive weapons, averaging at least 1.5 goals for their career.
PLAYER | POSS | GOALS | SAG% | GOAL ASSISTS | SCORE INV | F50 GB | F50 MARKS | PRESSURE POINTS |
Luke Breust | 14.9 | 1.9 | 61.4 | 0.9 | 7.0 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 39.0 |
Eddie Betts | 12.4 | 1.9 | 56.3 | 0.9 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 33.0 |
Cyril Rioli | 15.1 | 1.5 | 58.0 | 1.0 | 6.7 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 42.9 |
Steve Johnson | 19.2 | 1.8 | 47.7 | 0.9 | 7.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 33.0 |
Mark LeCras | 14.6 | 2.1 | 53.0 | 0.6 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 33.8 |
Jeff Garlett | 11.3 | 1.8 | 51.3 | 0.6 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 38.5 |
Lindsay Thomas | 11.3 | 1.6 | 47.3 | 0.7 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 32.9 |
Hayden Ballantyne | 12.8 | 1.5 | 50.4 | 0.6 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 35.4 |
Michael Walters | 16.2 | 1.7 | 56.0 | 0.8 | 6.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 30.9 |
Chad Wingard | 18.3 | 1.6 | 51.0 | 0.8 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 30.6 |
Tory Dickson | 12.8 | 1.6 | 64.6 | 0.4 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 28.0 |
- Johnson, Walters and Wingard spent significant time in the midfield
Champion Data has data for pressure points since 2010.
Milne, for example, averaged only 25.1 in his four seasons in that time, which would have placed him a long way last in the above table, but it was a different game then.
What hasn't changed is the value in making the most of shots at goal, another Breust strength, as indicated above and below.
The triple premiership star booted an extraordinary 109 goals against only 31 behinds and 12 misses across 2014 and 2015, the final two seasons of Hawthorn's three-peat.
PLAYER | GOALS | BEHINDS | MISSES | ACCURACY |
Tory Dickson | 153 | 52 | 32 | 64.6% |
Jay Schulz | 242 | 104 | 43 | 62.2% |
Ben Brown | 207 | 95 | 32 | 62.0% |
Luke Breust | 349 | 166 | 53 | 61.4% |
Daniel Giansiracusa | 124 | 59 | 22 | 60.5% |
Breust is on track to kick 50 majors for the third time in his career this year – and he has never slotted fewer than 30 – whereas Betts has achieved that feat on five occasions in six extra seasons.
Milne did it six times and Rioli never reached that plateau, while Johnson (three), LeCras (two) and Thomas, Wingard and Dickson (one each) are the others to manage it from the aforementioned list.
Most of Breust's 349 goals – the sixth-most of any player since 2011 – are from set shots (173), with the rest from snaps (99), on the run (62), playing on from marks (eight) and off the ground (seven).
His forward-50 disposal efficiency of 65 per cent also ranks eighth of the top-200 ball winners in that area in the past eight years.
A second All Australian nod seems certain, but don't rule out Breust becoming the first small forward since Leigh Matthews in 1975 to win the Coleman Medal.
That might just seal the deal on this topic.
Sharing the love
Only six Tigers won at least 20 disposals in their runaway 28-point victory over Collingwood on Saturday, headed by Shane Edwards and Brandon Ellis with 22.
It is the equal-lowest leading tally in a winning side in 2018, along with Port Adelaide enforcer Ollie Wines in round 11.
Fremantle's Shaun McManus, Troy Longmuir and Brad Dodd had the fewest with 15 possessions in round 11, 2000.
Richmond's depth was also evident in Jacob Townsend's 11 touches being the year's equal second-highest lowest ball-winning tally, behind four Hawks with 13 in round eight.
The 11-disposal range between the highest and lowest Tigers was the second-narrowest for 22 AFL players since 2000 in a win or loss.
The Dockers had a range of 10 in round 13, 2006.
Moving on up
Evergreen Hawthorn great Shaun Burgoyne is in equal third place for all-time wins with former Blue Bruce Doull as of Sunday's victory over Fremantle.
It's unlikely Burgoyne will ever catch frontrunning Hawk Michael Tuck, but he could overtake Richmond legend Kevin Bartlett if he plays on next year and Hawthorn fares well.
Tuck (70.89) is the sole player in the top four to boast a better winning percentage than Burgoyne (67.61).
PLAYER | YEARS | GAMES | WON | DRAWN | LOST | WIN% |
Michael Tuck | 1972-1991 | 426 | 302 | 1 | 123 | 70.89 |
Kevin Bartlett | 1965-1983 | 403 | 260 | 4 | 139 | 64.52 |
Shaun Burgoyne | 2002- | 352 | 238 | 2 | 112 | 67.61 |
Bruce Doull | 1969-1986 | 356 | 238 | 5 | 113 | 66.85 |
Brent Harvey | 1996-2016 | 432 | 235 | 3 | 194 | 54.40 |
Dustin Fletcher | 1993-2015 | 400 | 234 | 5 | 161 | 58.50 |
Simon Madden | 1974-1992 | 378 | 223 | 2 | 153 | 58.99 |
Do clearances matter?
The answer is yes, but with an asterisk.
Just five of the nine victors in round 19 won the clearance battle in what is becoming a trend in the modern game.
The club that won clearances claimed more than 65 per cent of matches two seasons ago, but that figure has slipped to 61.5 per cent in 2018.
There is an even more distinct drop in the winning ratio for teams with the edge in centre clearances – going from 61 per cent in 2016 to just 53.9 per cent this year.