Head to head: Geelong 113 wins, Sydney Swans 93 wins, no draws
Last time: Geelong 13.14 (92) d Sydney Swans 13.9 (87), round 20, 2009 at ANZ Stadium
MISSING IN ACTION
GEELONG
Gary Ablett (hamstring) - test
Joel Corey (knee) - 1-2 weeks
Brad Ottens (foot) - 6-8 weeks
Steven Motlop (shoulder) - 9 weeks
Max Rooke (knee) - 1-2 weeks
Matthew Scarlett (back) - test
SYDNEY SWANS
Craig Bird (foot) - 2-3 weeks
Craig Bolton (achilles) - 7-8 weeks
Daniel Hannebery (shoulder) - 1-2 weeks
Ben McGlynn (quad strain) - test/1 week
Brett Meredith (knee) 1-2 weeks
Jake Orreal (back soreness) - indefinite
Mark Seaby (ankle) - 12 weeks
Kristin Thornton (knee) - 2-3 weeks
FORM
Geelong: WLWLW
Sydney Swans: WWWWW
SUMMARY
First versus fifth isn't so surprising when these two teams meet, but it is when the Swans sit atop the ladder and the Cats are out of the top four. The harbour team is playing terrific football - exciting, dashing - while the Cats have alternated between outstanding and underwhelming. The Swans have won more quarters (18) this year than any other team in the competition while the Cats have won 14 and sit equal fifth. The telling stat here is that each side has won four first, second and final quarters, but the second term sees the Swans with all six won, and Geelong just two. But just in case you think a big second term for the Swans could get them over the line, here's a sobering reminder of just why the Cats are so feared at Skilled - they have won their last 19 matches there, and 25 of their last 26.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Tom Hawkins is seemingly perpetually under pressure despite coach Mark Thompson's insistence that he will be a long-term player with the Cats. Tomahawk is currently ranked 20th at the Cats for kicks per game, not ideal for a key forward, and with 1.2 goals a game, is equal seventh with youngster Mitch Duncan. He needs to crank it up, maybe with a run as second ruckman with Brad Ottens out.
Shane Mumford was offered a deal in trade week that he couldn't refuse, so the giant young ruckman left the Cats and became a Swan on the back of a breakout year that didn't quite see him play in a flag-winning side. With Mark Seaby copping a three-month injury last weekend, Mumford is suddenly even more important to the high-flying Swans.
QUESTION MARKS
Will Matthew Scarlett play? Scarlett has missed four weeks with a back injury and the coach says he's likely, but he has to get through a few training sessions yet.
Can new Swan Daniel Bradshaw keep his stellar form going? The former Lion has 23 goals after his six matches so far, but averages just 1.5 goals a game at Skilled Stadium.
If Scarlett plays, will he play on Bradshaw?
WHO WILL WIN AND WHY
This is a really tough one to pick. The Swans are playing terrific footy, while the Cats have been up and down. But it's at home, which is a fortress for the Cats.
PREDICTION
Geelong by 14 points
Follow Matt Burgan's inside view of Geelong v Sydney Swans at #aflcatsswans on Twitter.com from 1:10pm Sunday or @AFL_MattBurgan#aflcatsswans
The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
