- Stirred up superstar out indefinitely
- Sore Ablett still wanted at the Suns
- Natural healing not the best: Doc Larkins
- Gaz's shoulder will never be right: Eade
- North goes west: Queensland's Fantasy fail
Tuesday's news that Gary Ablett will be sidelined indefinitely had the AFL world abuzz. Seeing the Little Master with his wing clipped over the first two rounds was something we're just not used to, but now we won't get to see him at all – for who knows how long? Ablett's shoulder injury will not only be at the front of his mind, but that of coach Rodney Eade, Gold Coast supporters, those involved with Sunday's opponent Geelong, and thousands of fantasy footy players around the country. Here's what you need to know.
The incident
Saturday July 5, 2014 was the start of the problems for Ablett. Collingwood's Brent Macaffer drove him into the Metricon Stadium turf, dislocating his left shoulder. Rehab from the resulting reconstruction took eight months, but after some heavy hits in the opening two weeks of 2015, Ablett has had to temporarily put his season on ice.
Click here to watch the incident
What is the exact problem?
There's no funky medical term for this. Dr Peter Larkins says it's an "inflamed, stiff shoulder" that got aggravated under heavy contact. The inflammation restricts his range of movement. Suns coach Rodney Eade says there is no problem with the structure of the shoulder and it's totally sound.
Does he need surgery?
No he doesn't – well, it's extremely unlikely in any case. Larkins says he needs time to heal, exercises to strengthen and anti-inflammatories to take the inflammation down. "None of those are really surgical options," he said. "It's a low choice option to do surgery a second time, but it's still there." The Suns are adamant he doesn't need it.
How long will he miss?
The common view is he'll miss anywhere from two to five weeks. Given the length of rehabilitation to overcome the initial surgery – which he never really overcame – you can expect it to be at the latter end of that scale. Mark Thompson coached Ablett for nine years and said: "Gary's the sort of player that likes his body to be pristine." Ablett didn't want to rush back the first time and he sure as anything won't be rushed this time. He needs to be at least 90 percent to play and common sense says that's at least a month off.
Have we seen the best of Gary?
The dual Brownlow medallist has set such an incredible benchmark over the past eight years, it's going to be hard to scale those heights again. You'd be stupid to say he couldn't though. Eade said on Wednesday it was unlikely the shoulder would ever return to 100 percent, so it has to diminish his superpowers to some extent. In saying that, a 90 percent Gary Ablett is still better than 99 percent of the AFL.
Gold Coast record with and without Gary
Let's cut to the chase, the Suns have been abysmal without their captain. They've won just one of 12 matches (and that was against wooden spooners St Kilda last year) and their average losing margin is 47 points. In Gold Coast's four seasons in the competition, Ablett has racked up 97 Brownlow Medal votes, while the rest of the team have just 103.
Gary Ablett leaves the field in pain after the round 16 incident last year. Picture: AFL Media
Gold Coast's next five games
Geelong (SS), Greater Western Sydney (SO), Brisbane Lions (MS), Adelaide (MS), West Coast (DS).
Who steps up?
There couldn't be a worse time for Ablett to go down, with Jaeger O'Meara (knee) out for the season, and Jarrod Harbrow (shoulder) and Mitch Hallahan (ribs) also missing time to decimate the midfield. Jesse Lonergan will get games, as will Matt Shaw, while tagger Andrew Raines could be elevated from the rookie list. But now is the time for Harley Bennell to step up. He will likely get more midfield minutes and simply must elevate his game alongside ever-consistent David Swallow and Dion Prestia.
What does it mean for Gold Coast's finals hopes?
The Suns have effectively dropped two matches to the rest of the finals field with losses to Melbourne and St Kilda. Ablett's injury is a huge dent, and if they can't reverse their shocking record without him, they can kiss goodbye their dreams of making the eight. But there's hope. The next six weeks are tricky, but only Geelong played finals last year. The Suns must win at least four of those matches before they hit Hawthorn, Sydney Swans and Fremantle in successive weeks where their season could slide away.
What they’ve said
"It's never going to be 100 per cent because he had an operation. Guys who have had ACLs are never going to have 100 per cent knees again because once you've had an invasive procedure, there's some limitation within the joint. He's never going to be 100 per cent." Suns coach Rodney Eade.
"What treatment he has will depend on whether he's willing to take on board the medical advice and go with what we do know that works, even though it's slow to work." Dr Peter Larkins
"Getting knocks on it, that's not ideal. It definitely stirs it up but as the weeks roll on, it will hopefully get stronger (and) I feel more confident in it." Ablett – two days prior to his injury announcement.
Fantasy
It's only early days, but Ablett is on the nose in Fantasy land. His price has dropped $72,000 since the start of the season to $603,000. But with his immediate future in doubt, captains can't get rid of him quick enough. Ablett was owned by 39 percent of coaches before round one, but right now that's down to 30 percent and you can expect that to plummet further once people start to finalise their teams on Friday.
The markets
Ablett's injury has hit the betting market like an earthquake. CrownBet reports Ablett's odds to win a third Brownlow Medal have drifted from $9 to $15. The Suns are also on the nose to make the top eight, slumping from $2.15 chances to rank outsiders at $7. The immediate impact of his absence is felt this weekend, with Geelong firming from $1.21 favourites to $1.15 and the Suns out from $4.50 to $5.50.
