SUMMARY
These arch-rivals always put on a fierce contest and this Sunday should be no exception as they fight to stay off the bottom of the ladder. Both teams have struggled to score this season and a 12-goal tally is likely to be enough for victory. The Bombers were humiliated on Anzac Day and will be out to redeem themselves. They rely heavily on skipper Brendon Goddard and David Zaharakis in the midfield, and their battle with Marc Murphy, Patrick Cripps and Bryce Gibbs will be crucial to the result. Led brilliantly by Murphy, Carlton displayed plenty of grit and determination to outlast Fremantle last Sunday and record its first win of the season. The challenge for the Blues is to maintain that effort.
Levi Casboult has the chance to find form against a weakened Essendon defence. Picture: AFL Media
WHERE AND WHEN: MCG, Sunday, May 1, 3.20pm AEST
TV AND RADIO: Click here for broadcast guide
PAST FIVE TIMES
ROUND 3, 2015, Essendon 16.9 (105) d Carlton 11.18 (84) at the MCG
ROUND 23, 2014, Carlton 14.6 (90) drew with Essendon 13.12 (90) at the MCG
ROUND 3, 2014, Essendon 21.12 (138) d Carlton 8.9 (57) at the MCG
ROUND 22, 2013, Essendon 12.10 (82) d Carlton 9.22 (76) at the MCG
ROUND 11, 2013, Essendon 11.11 (77) d Carlton 10.12 (72) at the MCG
THE SIX POINTS
1. The last time these clubs met, in round three last season, Essendon had more disposals (385-336), more tackles (58-42) and took more marks inside 50 (15-9), but the Blues dominated the clearances 53-30 and both teams had 57 inside 50s.
2. After five matches this season the Bombers are the lowest-scoring team, averaging only 61.2 points a game. But Carlton is not much better, ranked 17th with an average of 63.2 points.
3. The Blues are the worst centre clearance team this season, averaging only 8.4 a game. The Bombers are not much better, ranked 16th with an average of 11.8.
4. Carlton and Essendon have played 63 times at the MCG and the Bombers have been victorious on 35 occasions. The Blues have won 24 with four draws. The Blues have lost eight of their past 10 games against all opposition at the MCG.
5. Carlton is the worst team this season for goalkicking accuracy with 44 goals and 52 behinds at 41.5 per cent. Essendon is only marginally better, ranked 16th at 44 per cent.
6. Of these teams playing on Sunday Carlton captain Marc Murphy is the highest-ranked player in the Schick Hydro AFL Player Ratings. He is ranked 48th with 452 points. His rival skipper Brendon Goddard is the highest-ranked Bomber at No. 62 (434.6 points).
IT’S A BIG WEEK FOR … Levi Casboult.
The key forward has been struggling with his goalkicking and has an opportunity to impose himself against an under-strength Essendon defence. He needs to score a goal early to boost his confidence.
PREDICTION: Carlton by 18 points.
