IT'S ROUND 13, and although that number might feel unlucky for some AFL Fantasy coaches, you’ve come to the right place because I’ve been working overtime this week to make sure you have a great captain to score you double points.
Firstly, I have to address the pink elephant in the room - and that’s the fact that I left Gary Ablett and Steve Johnson out of my top five last week.
My prediction with Johnson was on the money. He scored just 77 against the Sydney Swans, but Fantasy coaches via Twitter (@CalvinDT), were more interested in talking about Ablett’s exclusion from my top five after he scored 146 points without a tag for the first time in three weeks.
Now in my defence, he did have scores of 98 points and 78 points leading into that game but I have listened and I have learnt and this week.
So disregarding all form, I declare… The return of Steve Johnson.
THE RETURN OF STEVIE J
This week, Steve Johnson [MID, $537,336] will return to his Fantasy best.
It's a big statement, considering he hasn’t scored over 95 points in his last three games. Johnson has been heavily tagged in recent weeks and has only managed scores of 77, 94 and 56 points.
This week will be different.
Firstly, he plays at Simonds Stadium. A ground he has scored 168 and 121 points at already this year and this week, he’ll meet the Saints who have given up 13 scores of over 100 points to opposition players in the last two weeks.
Johnson has scored 109 and 98 in his last two games against St Kilda and although they do use taggers, I can’t see them being overly effective against this maverick.
Joel Selwood scored 136 points in 2013, despite a tag from Clinton Jones, and with Tom Curren omitted last week, the pressure on Stevie J should be much lighter.
This week will be the return of Johnson as he delivers something special for us on his favourite ground, against a team that is currently bleeding Fantasy points.
IT’S TOUGH ‘PICKEN’ THE TAGS
Great play on words! But we’re not here for my humorous puns.
Mitch Wallis and Liam Picken are some of the best taggers going around, and this week they will have their sights set on Collingwood’s midfielders.
Picken tends to go the number one opposition midfielder and this week, he’ll be targeting Scott Pendlebury [MID, $550,547] at Etihad Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
Pendlebury has back to back scores of 133 points in his last two games against the Bulldogs and has averaged 111 points in his last three games this year. He’s also averaged 123 points under the Etihad roof over the last two years.
After being tagged to just 76 points last week, his lowest score for 2014, Dayne Beams [MID, $565,675] will certainly copy the same treatment this week.
Beams scored 137 points when he last played against the Western Bulldogs in 2012, and even with the extra attention he will now receive, we can’t write him off based on just one game. However, we do need to be cautious.
So if Picken and Wallis go to Pendlebury and Beams, then that means that Dane Swan [MID, $531,234] will run free against a team he has averaged 130 points against in his last four games. Scary!
Swan has scored 114 and 101 points in recent weeks and scored 137 against the Western Bulldogs last year. The great man is starting to warm-up and could produce something big on Sunday afternoon.
Let’s not forget about Tom Liberatore [MID, $565,322] though. He’ll be rubbing shoulders with these stars and has been in some hot form of his own averaging 125 points in his last four games. He scored 88 and 86 points against Collingwood last year and loves playing at Etihad Stadium.
Liberatore hasn’t scored under 110 points in his last six games and has now officially emerged as a Fantasy star.
ABLETT v ROCKY
Gary Ablett [MID, $578,685] bounced back last week with an impressive 146 points. Prior to that, he was tagged to scores of 98 and 78 points, and this week he’ll receive another tag from West Coast’s Scott Selwood.
Selwood has tagged Ablett in their last two contests, holding him to 89 and 102 points. This has my alarm bells ringing. Adding to my concerns is the fact that the game is at Patersons Stadium, a ground Ablett has only scored 80 and 89 points on in his last two games at the venue.
When playing at Metricon Stadium, Ablett has averaged 128, compared to 109 away from home.
On the other hand, Tom Rockliff [MID, $624,623] is back home at the Gabba this week, a ground that has seen him score 153, 147, 141 and 116 points in 2014.
He had 95 and 125 points in his last two games against the Giants and although he only scored 102 points last week, he’s still averaging 134 points in his last three.
Ablett made me eat my words last week, but based on these statistics, Rockliff will get the nod ahead of him again this week.
Just quickly…
Once again, here are few more of the popular players I have looked at. If I have missed your favourite, hit me up on Twitter (@CalvinDT) and I’ll do my best to cover them in round 14.
Kieren Jack [MID, $535,168] v Port Adelaide at the SCG: Jack scored 105 points against Port Adelaide last year, his first triple-figure score against the Power in his career. He’s been in solid form but we have better options this week.
Patrick Dangerfield [FWD/MID, $497,954] v North Melbourne at Adelaide Oval: Crowley tagged Dangerfield to just 66 points last week but in his last two games against North Melbourne, Dangerfield scored 101 and 121 points. He’ll be better this week.
Marc Murphy [MID, $533,806] v Hawthorn at the MCG: Over his career, Murphy has scored over 100 points in 50 per cent of his games against the Hawks. He has scored 84 and 153 points over the last two weeks and should score well again on Friday night.
Leigh Montagna [MID, $519,687] v Geelong at Simonds Stadium: It’s a huge ask to score well against Geelong at Simonds Stadium but Montagna has scored 109 and 100 points in his last two games against them. He’d be a very gutsy captain pick if you do it.
Brent Stanton [MID, $529,671] v Melbourne at the MCG: Although his numbers can be hard to predict at times, Stanton has scored 128 and 143 points in his last two games at the MCG and posted 142 points against the Demons last year. He’s a high risk player, but can deliver that high reward on his day.
Michael Barlow [MID, $539,454] v Richmond at the MCG: Over his career of five games against Richmond, Barlow has never scored under 100 points. He had 106 and 122 points against them last year and averages 111 points at the MCG over the last two years. A top option!
Josh P. Kennedy [MID, $592,048] v Port Adelaide at the SCG: Kennedy has scored 123, 123 and 113 points at the SCG this year and although he only has one score over 100 points against the Power in his career, his form is far too hot at the moment to ignore. With scores of 103, 123, 139 and 139 points in his last four games, he has to be considered.
