GARY Ablett will have to defy the weight of history to win his third Brownlow Medal if, as predicted, he misses at least a month with his injured shoulder. 

The Gold Coast champion's prognosis could become clearer on Tuesday afternoon when he receives further opinion from surgeon Grey Hoy in Melbourne.

However, respected sports medico Dr Peter Larkins believes Ablett could avoid surgery and spend up to four weeks on the sidelines.

Only one player - Richmond's Stan Judkins - has missed that many games and still claimed the Brownlow.

Despite missing a remarkable six games in the 1930 season, Judkins tied with Footscray's Allan Hopkins and Collingwood's Harry Collier on four votes apiece under a system in which the umpire only awarded one vote per game to the fairest and best player.  

He was only awarded the Brownlow after the VFL officials met the week after the count and ruled Judkins the winner as he had played fewer games (12) than Hopkins (15) and Collier (18).

Amazingly, the classy wingman was dropped the Tigers four weeks out from the finals and remains the only medallist to be omitted during his winning year.

Several players have missed three games and still claimed the Brownlow, including triple medallist Haydn Bunton in 1932, Chris Judd in 2010 and Ablett himself in 2009.

But history suggests Ablett's 2014 season is more likely to join a raft of near-misses by champion players who fell foul of the injury gods. 

Collingwood's enigmatic key forward Phil Carman was sidelined for eight games in 1975 and only came up three votes shy of the eventual winner, Footscray ruckman Gary Dempsey. 

Carman, who won the Magpies' best and fairest award in the same year, broke a bone in his foot when playing state football for Victoria. He was missed rounds 11-18 and promptly kicked 17 goals (six and 11) in his first two games back. It was his first season in the VFL.

Essendon's James Hird is a more recent example of a player to have fallen just short, failing by three votes to share in the 2003 Brownlow Medal despite missing six games through calf and hamstring injuries. 

Hird polled 19 votes from his 16 games, three behind the winning trio of Mark Ricciuto, Adam Goodes and Nathan Buckley.

In 2010, Judd missed the first three rounds of the season through suspension and started the count as a $21 outsider behind clear favourite Dane Swan. 

However, the Carlton champion was adjudged best afield in each of his first five games that season, reeling in early leader Aaron Sandilands by round eight and he was never headed. 

6 – Stan Judkins (Richmond), 1930 (won on countback)

3 – Allan Hopkins (Footscray), 1930 (awarded retrospectively)

3 – Haydn Bunton (Fitzroy), 1932

3 – Tony Liberatore (Footscray), 1990

3 – Gary Ablett (Geelong), 2009

3 – Chris Judd (Carlton), 2010

2 – Jimmy Bartel (Geelong), 2007

2 – Edward 'Carji' Greeves (Geelong), 1924

2 – Colin Watson (St Kilda), 1925

2 – Dick Reynolds (Essendon), 1934

2 – Dick Reynolds (Essendon), 1937

2 – Ian Stewart (St Kilda), 1965

2 – Bob Skilton (South Melbourne), 1968

2 – Gerard Healy (Sydney), 1988

2 – Gavin Wanganeen (Essendon), 1993

2 – Greg Williams (Carlton), 1994

1975 – Phil Carman (Collingwood): missed eight games, polled 17 votes; finished three votes behind winner Gary Dempsey (Footscray) 

1976 – Peter Knights (Hawthorn): missed seven games, polled 45 votes (in a year 3-2-1 were awarded by two umpires); finished three votes behind winner Graham Moss (Essendon) 

1996 – Paul Salmon (Hawthorn): missed five games, polled 18 votes; finished three votes behind winners James Hird and Michael Voss 

2003 – James Hird (Essendon): missed six games, polled 19 votes; finished three votes behind winners Mark Ricciuto, Nathan Buckley and Adam Goodes