Statistics suggest Hird is as capable as the dual premiership coach at continuing the trend of improvement they started together in 2011.
After finishing 14th in 2010 under Matthew Knights, Essendon sat fourth after round 18, 2013 and Hird's winning record sat at 59 percent.
After 18 rounds this season, Thompson has the Bombers seventh with a winning record of 58 per cent (for a total winning percentage of 62.3 per cent).
The most talked-about improvement under Thompson has been Essendon's ability to restrict opposition scoring.
It has conceded just 76 points a game, making it the third best defensive team in the competition.
History suggests a team must be in the top four defensively to win a premiership.
Thompson is obviously a master at team defence – given Geelong conceded the fewest points as early as 2004 – but Essendon has improved in that area every year since Hird took over.
People forget that until round 18 last season, before the Essendon season fell apart amid the supplements controversy, the Bombers were conceding on average just 80 points a game under Hird's direction.
Essendon has moved from conceding 100.8 points in 2011, 95 in 2012 and 90 in 2013 to this year's average of 76 points per game.
Given the club conceded an average of 109 points in the year before Hird took over, that is a positive trend.
Only Fremantle (68.3 points conceded per game) and the Sydney Swans (69.5) perform better on that measure in 2014.
Under Thompson, Essendon has improved its ability to restrict the opposition from launching scores from its defensive 50. It was 18th in that statistic in 2012, moved 10th last season and is now ranked fifth.
The introduction and improvement of Mark Baguley and Michael Hibberd, both of whom made their debut under Hird, has been significant.
Cale Hooker, who was close to being traded to West Coast, has become the best intercept mark in the competition and is becoming as reliable as the veteran Dustin Fletcher once was.
No match-day role for Hird in 2014
Essendon is second in the competition for disposals behind Hawthorn, but it was a trend it started last season under Hird when it also had the second-most disposals in the competition.
The Bombers' disposal efficiency has improved under Thompson (from ninth to first) and they have been electrifying at times in the way they have moved the ball.
What Thompson has managed to introduce to the Bombers in 2014 is a capacity to stop the opposition winning the ball as often.
Under Hird, Essendon was ranked 12th at stopping the opposition from winning disposals and it has moved to sixth, although opponents are only managing two fewer disposals per game on average than it did last season.
That is consistent with Essendon's improved ball use as it reduces turnovers.
Thompson's recent wins have also come without the services of the brilliant Jobe Watson, and ruckman Tom Bellchambers has been missing for most of the season through injury.
Patrick Ryder, the indefatigable Brendon Goddard, Dyson Heppell, David Zaharakis, David Myers and Brent Stanton have been very good at covering that pair's absence.
Essendon had a centre clearance differential of minus five in 2012 but it addressed the issue under Hird last season. It had +30 differential, which made it third-best in the AFL and has continued its improvement this season to lead the competition in that area with a +45 differential in centre clearances.
Thompson has re-ordered the priority players in the midfield with Stanton dropping down the pecking order, averaging 381 metres gained per game, well below his average of 486 metres gained under Hird.
Much has been made of positional changes under Thompson with Jake Carlisle playing forward and Michael Hurley in defence. Carlisle has been brilliant in the past two games against undersized defenders – and looked more threatening than Hurley at his best – but whether he has been a success or not remains debatable.
Certainly Essendon would expect its forward line to improve as Joe Daniher grows as a player and rookie Patrick Ambrose and the Merrett brothers, Zach and Jackson, continue to build on their promise.
Carlisle's sudden belief in his forward role might put Essendon in a strong position in the future because of the flexibility he adds, but with an improved Daniher leading the forward line the team might still be better with Hurley in attack and Carlisle in defence.
That's a decision for the future, but certainly Thompson's experience and credibility as a two-time premiership coach has helped him ride the rough patch with Carlisle.
The recruiting record since Hird started has been very good, with Dyson Heppell, Hibberd, the Merrett brothers, Ambrose, Baguley, Jason Ashby and Martin Gleeson all showing promise. Paul Chapman has also been a good stop-gap recruit. The Bombers have retained players and overcome being banned from the first round of the draft.
Having lost Stewart Crameri and Angus Monfries to rival clubs in recent seasons, the Bombers have done well to restructure their forward line, although their ability to score once inside 50 (45.8 per cent of the time) has dropped. Essendon is scoring 14 points a game fewer under Thompson than in 2013 under Hird, but it has been ranked 15th in both years.
Essendon has also become better at protecting leads in recent weeks.
The Bombers have won five of the eight games decided by fewer than 10 points this season. It lost to Hawthorn, Melbourne and Geelong after leading with just minutes remaining but has stabilised its efforts in that area.
After winning just two cliffhangers from eight (plus a draw) in Hird's first two seasons the Bombers won four from four games decided by less than 10 points in 2013.
The club appears to be building towards the end of the season rather than hitting a brick wall mid-season as it did under Hird. Essendon won eight of the first 11 games in 2012 and 2013 but just three and six of the final 11 respectively.
This season it won just five of the first 10 but it has won five of its past seven, as it appears to have learned its lesson.
It has also vastly improved its record on the road since Hird took over. Between 2002 and 2010 it won just seven of 41 games played outside Victoria.
Since Hird began, the club has won 13 from 19 games outside Victoria, including three out of four this season.
Excluding Carlton - the beneficiary of Essendon's supplement scandal punishment - the Bombers have beaten three-top eight teams both this season and last season.
However they are yet to beat Hawthorn since Hird took over and have only beaten Geelong and the Sydney Swans once in the past four years.
A win against the Swans at the SCG on Friday night and a strong finals performance might push Thompson's record into a different sphere. After all, he is a proven premiership coach and Hird has benefited from his presence.
But right now – having nearly completed his 12-month suspension for being senior coach when the 2012 supplements program took place – Hird looks capable of resuming a role that the experienced Thompson has made look easier than it is in 2014.
HIRD OR THOMPSON? WHAT THE STATS SAY
| 2014 (THOMPSON) | 2013 (HIRD) | 2012 (HIRD) | 2011 (HIRD) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points against | 76.0 (3rd) | 90.0 (10th) | 95.0 (11th) | 100.8 (12th) |
| Points for | 83.5 (13th) | 97.5 (7th) | 95.0 (10th) | 100.8 (6th) |
| Quarters won | 33 (Eq. 11th) | 43 (Eq. 11th) | 37 (13th) | 42 (Eq. 9th) |
| Disposal efficiency (%) | 74.5 (1st) | 72.2 (9th) | 70.7 (16th) | 72.1 (9th) |
| Long kicks (%) | 30.0 (18th) | 34.6 (Eq. 15th) | 33.8 (18th) | 36.6 (7th) |
| Metres gained per game differential | +188.1 (8th) | +179.7 (9th) | +94.1 (12th) | +29.9 (8th) |
| Scores inside 50 (%) | 45.8 (15th) | 48.4 (15th) | 48.7 (11th) | 48.8 (10th) |
| Scores when opp. inside 50 | 45.8 (5th) | 50.2 (11th) | 47.4 (6th) | 50.7 (13th) |
| Points from stoppages differential | +52 (8th) | -200 (16th) | +89 (7th) | -40 (8th) |
| Centre clearances differential | +45 (1st) | +30 (3rd) | -5 (11th) | +42 (2nd) |
| Inside 50 differential | +6.1 (5th) | +4.6 (5th) | +1.5 (12th) | +1.5 (7th) |
| Disposals for | 388.0 (2nd) | 375.9 (2nd) | 353.0 (12th) | 361.1 (6th) |
| Disposals against | 358.4 (6th) | 360.7 (12th) | 362.5 (13th) | 354.9 (8th) |
| Marks for | 113.3 (1st) | 100.6 (1st) | 91.0 (8th) | 87.0 (8th) |
| Marks against | 89.7 (13th) | 92.7 (14th) | 94.4 (15th) | 83.2 (7th |
| Scores from D50 | 4.2 (5th) | 4.8 (4th) | 5.9 (2nd) | 4.6 (Eq. 5th) |
| Scores from D50 against | 3.4 (Eq. 5th) | 4.5 (10th) | 5.3 (18th) | 4.6 (Eq. 12th) |
| % of play in corridor | 31.2 (Eq. 4th) | 31.6 (3rd) | 35.5 (2nd) | 30.4 (10th) |
| % of play on wing | 31.1 (14th) | 33.2 (4th) | 32.5 (3rd) | 31.3 (4th) |
| % of play along boundary | 37.7 (12th) | 35.2 (16th) | 32.0 (17th) | 38.3 (11th) |
