Rd 21: St Kilda at the SCG

Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium

Rd 23: Richmond at ANZ Stadium

60 points (15 wins, four losses) 113.1 per cent

Geelong's thrilling win over Freo has kept it in the mix for a top-two finish. The Cats' relatively low percentage could be a hindrance, though, with Chris Scott's men effectively a win behind Hawthorn and the Swans. The round 22 clash against the Hawks will be pivotal but Geelong needs to negotiate a tricky encounter against the in-form Blues first. Theoretically, the Cats could still finish as low as fifth but they can feel safe inside the top four given Port's recent form struggles. A home game against the Lions in round 23 should be an ideal chance to iron out any issues before finals.

52 points (13 wins, six losses) 129.4 per cent

It's tough to point the finger at David Mundy, but his miss after the siren against Geelong has probably blown the Dockers' hopes of a top-two finish out of the water. Victory over the Hawks in round 21 would keep those slim chances alive, but a loss could see Freo slip to fifth behind the Power, who the Dockers host in round 23. Ross Lyon's men aren’t in the clear yet but it would be a brave pundit to bet against them playing in a qualifying final.  

48 points (12 wins, seven losses) 126.7 per cent

Saturday night's gallant loss to the Sydney Swans might have signalled a revival of sorts for the Power, but they must now win every game to have a realistic chance of finishing in the top four. Gold Coast (away) and Carlton (home) will be tricky, with Fremantle (away) looming in round 23. If things go horribly wrong in the final three weeks the Power could unthinkably find themselves in a scrap just to make the eight. A home elimination final looks the most likely scenario at this stage.

40 points (10 wins, nine losses) 112.4 per cent

What a difference a week makes. Lambasted from all corners after their shock loss to the Eagles, Adelaide responded by belting the Brisbane Lions to the tune of 105 points. The thumping win saw the Crows climb three spots up the ladder to seventh but they are still no certainties to feature in September. Richmond will be playing to keep its season alive in round 21, while North will be no easybeats in Hobart a week later. If the Crows win at least one of those matches and knock over the Saints in round 23 they should be finals bound.

40 points (10 wins, nine losses) 105.9 per cent

The Bombers have crashed back to the pack after their loss to Richmond. With West Coast and Carlton both hitting form, Essendon would only pencil in a victory against Gold Coast at Etihad Stadium in round 22 at this stage. One win is unlikely to be enough to feature in September and even two victories might not get them there without a percentage boost. But if the Bombers respond to the Tigers loss with three straight wins, they could yet host an elimination final. However unlikely it may be, the Bombers could finish as low as 12th if things go awry and they lose all three.

Rd 21: Brisbane Lions at the MCG

Rd 22: Greater Western Sydney at Spotless Stadium

40 points (10 wins, nine losses) 97.2 per cent

Gary Ablett's season-ending shoulder injury might be the making of Gold Coast in the next few seasons, but it's likely to cost them a historic finals appearance in 2014. The Suns were bitterly disappointing in the loss to Carlton, barely firing a shot with their season on the line. Two games at Metricon against Port and West Coast gives them some hope but a poor percentage looms as a big obstacle to overcome. Hard to see the Suns mustering a finals challenge now.

36 points (nine wins, 10 losses) 111.8 per cent

Impressive wins over Adelaide and Collingwood in the past two weeks have left West Coast fans wondering what has taken the Eagles so long to hit their straps. Now only one win and minimal percentage from seventh spot, the Eagles are effectively facing three elimination finals on the run home. West Coast is sure to encounter a fired-up Bombers outfit next round in a season-defining game for both sides. If the Eagles can engineer a win, finals are a realistic chance with two highly winnable matches against Melbourne (home) and Gold Coast (away) to round out the season.