Perhaps its recent form – against Hawthorn and Collingwood – is not just a matter of the team falling off the cliff.
It might merely be a return to the mean, a real reflection of where the team is placed.
The Bombers have won just three of the 16 quarters it has played in 2013 against the top four teams, Hawthorn, the Sydney Swans, Geelong and Fremantle.
The most recent time it won a quarter against those premiership contenders was the first quarter in round seven against Geelong.
It's not a premiership winning form line.
And as Essendon heads towards the finals – a series it remains confident it will be a part of despite the ASADA investigation – it has problems up forward.
To be blunt, its forward structure is less settled than a middle-aged musician.
In the past five weeks, Stewart Crameri, Jake Carlisle, Joe Daniher, Scott Gumbleton and Michael Hurley have all played as key forwards.
None have cemented a position.
And with just four rounds remaining Essendon does not seem any closer to determining its preferred combination.
Leaving its run late might prove costly.
It should have played Daniher against the Giants but decided to rush – in hindsight at least – Crameri back from his ankle injury he suffered against West Coast in round 14.
Crameri, Essendon's leading goalkicker with 28, was subbed off in the third quarter and didn't play the following week. He is now making his way back through the VFL.
Daniher was then thrown to the Hawthorn wolves and received a quick education from the Hawks' Josh Gibson.
That game against Hawthorn should have been – it would seem now – Crameri's comeback game. He should return this week.
After laying one tackle in 10 games, Hurley missed last week with an ankle injury. He has kicked 19 goals and has changed a game once – in the third quarter against Fremantle – but has been inconsistent. He looks like missing again this week against West Coast.
Carlisle was in great form in defence until he began to be used as a swingman. The move looked to have worked spectacularly but in recent weeks his form has slid like it was tagged, put on a toboggan and pushed.
Then there is Gumbleton, who played his sixth game this season on Sunday against Collingwood.
He took one of just four marks the Bombers took inside 50, the first by Jobe Watson coming 14 minutes into the third quarter.
Essendon is ranked 12th for marks inside 50 (and goals from marks) – lowest of the top eight teams – and does not have a player in the top 20 for marks inside 50.
Hurley and Crameri are ranked in the top 20 for targets so they have had opportunities.
Gumbleton was reasonable on Sunday and there is an argument he should just play forward for the rest of the season.
He has kicked 12 goals and can compete although he looks behind Crameri and Hurley in the ramshackle pecking order. Unfortunately, his two most recent games – against the Swans and Collingwood – have been in the wet so a fair assessment is impossible.
Funnily enough, ruckman-forward Tom Bellchambers is most productive inside 50 with 25 goals in 16 games, placing him second on the club's goalkicking list.
Nineteen of Bellchambers' goals have come from marks and his height worries opponents.
Of course, at its best Essendon creates opportunities for forwards by creating turnovers but that scoring source dried up against the Magpies, with just 33 points coming from 70 turnovers.
It also has goalkicking midfielders who can push forward such as Watson and Brendon Goddard, who have 14 goals each.
Bombers coach James Hird said conditions were tough for forwards on Sunday, and he was right, putting the onus on the midfielders work around the contest.
"Our forward line wasn't able to set up because of the way the ball was coming in," Hird said.
Tackling and pressure will be the focus this week.
That is true but the fact remains Essendon has left it late to settle on a forward line that has names most clubs would die for.
Perhaps it has become another victim of the paradox of choice.
Stats supplied by Champion Data
Peter Ryan is a reporter for AFL Media. Follow him on Twitter @AFL_petryan
