ONE OF the most "unpredictable" drafts in recent years is expected next month, with clubs unable to put a line through who will feature in the first 30 picks.
While the first batch of 12-14 selections at the NAB AFL Draft are unlikely to feature any major shocks, many recruiters believe there will be some surprises in the next group as clubs reach for the players they want.
Such is the evenness of the pool from picks 15 to 30, clubs think there will be a group of players in that bracket who some rate as possible first-round selections, and who some wouldn't draft at all.
"It will be very unpredictable from about pick 15 onwards," one recruiter told AFL.com.au.
Another recruiter spoke of a large "variance" in that draft range, meaning the rankings of those players was widely mixed according to each club.
In essence, the group of 'certain' draftees is smaller and the batch of 'possibles' is a lot bigger than most years, making it more difficult for each club to forecast how the cards will fall on draft night at the Gold Coast.
A consistent view is that clubs will start to draft on a needs basis earlier than before, meaning a number of taller prospects could be taken in the 20s and early 30s, even though they may not be the best available player.
This could have a ripple effect, a reason why some clubs believe they will be able to get the player they want if they hold a later pick in the third or early in the fourth round, despite the shallowness of the draft.
Talls pushing into the earlier stages would push back some other midfielders, who at this stage may be more accomplished players.
It has been spoken of regularly throughout the year that it is a midfielders' draft, with the talented smalls outnumbering the talls by some way.
But if clubs need to add a key position type to their list others believe a quality midfielder could be available later than they might have expected.
Four clubs – Greater Western Sydney, the Brisbane Lions, St Kilda and Gold Coast – hold three or more picks inside the top 30.
