The dynamic small forward suffered a high-grade hamstring tear against North Melbourne in round five, and was immediately ruled out until after the Hawks' bye.
The club's latest injury update, released on Tuesday afternoon, listed the 23-year-old as two to three weeks away.
Earlier on Tuesday, defender Josh Gibson said Rioli was progressing well, but the club would take a cautious approach to his comeback.
"He's looking good – he ran this morning – but he won't play this week," Gibson said.
"We just want to make sure he's cherry ripe.
"Obviously he's had a history of hamstring [injuries] over time, so I think he'll be back in the next couple of weeks."
After Carlton, the Hawks take on West Coast in round 13, followed by the Brisbane Lions.
If he misses all three matches, Rioli would then face the prospect of coming back in the round 15 grudge match against Geelong.
Meanwhile, midfielder Brendan Whitecross is set to make his return from a knee reconstruction when he runs out for the Hawks' VFL affiliate Box Hill this weekend.
Whitecross ruptured his anterior cruciate ligament against Collingwood in last year's qualifying final, requiring a reconstruction.
After a strong rehabilitation, he is ready to take his first steps back towards a senior call-up.
"It's really pleasing that 'Whitey' is back," Gibson said.
"He has been chomping at the bit.
"If you asked him, he'd have probably told you he could have played six weeks ago, but the medicos have just had to pull him back a bit.
"It's really good to have him back out there on the training track, because he's got a presence and brings that little bit of extra motivation to the group."
The 9-1 Hawks have a strong record against the Blues, having beaten them in the clubs' past nine meetings, by an average margin of 41 points.
They'll have the added advantage of intelligence from former Carlton coach Brett Ratten, who joined Hawthorn as an assistant coach after leaving Visy Park last year.
"You'd be crazy not to hit him up if you wanted to know about a player, especially if you're a defender and you want to find out about a forward," Gibson said.
"But in terms of their game style and structure, it's probably a bit different to when 'Ratts' was coaching them."
