DAYNE Beams is the most valuable recruit of the season and his Brisbane Lions teammate Allen Christensen is not far behind him, statistical software program Aphex has found.
The Collingwood premiership midfielder left the Magpies at the end of last year in what shapes as a win-win deal for both clubs, with the Lions landing Beams and the Magpies receiving pick five (Jordan De Goey) and Jack Crisp.
The Pies also received pick No.25 – which they swapped for Kangaroos midfielder Levi Greenwood – while the Lions acquired Collingwood's fourth-round draft pick (No.67).
According to Aphex, the Lions can take early bragging rights in the deal, with the software program ranking Beams, who has played every game and averaged 29 disposals, the best recruit of 2015.
Aphex is a program used by several AFL clubs in their list management and recruiting departments. It ranks every player in the competition based on their projected WAR (Wins Against Replacements).
The formula has been devised and developed by Australian-based baseball talent identification experts including Brett Ward, who is an international scout for the Baltimore Orioles.
The program measures the on-ground value of every player and ranks them according to how many wins they bring to their team each year.
It is designed to help clubs put some science behind their recruiting eye – it gives an objective view of the value a player gives on the field. The Aphex technology can also add a monetary value to its ratings to judge how much a club should be paying a player based on his output.
Of 15 of the most high-profile players to switch clubs last year through free agency or a trade, Beams tops the list for players who have brought in the most wins.
Clubs using the Aphex program can design their weightings based on key statistical areas to determine the value of a player, but these are Aphex's own weightings and are not based on what a player is being paid.
Aphex keeps its projected WARs under wraps, but has supplied AFL.com.au with three different lists ranking the best recruits at the halfway point of the season. WARs are adjusted after every game and at the end of every season.
The first list, in which Beams is ranked first and Christensen fourth, is a pure list of who has brought in the most wins this year so far.
But WARs are measured by playing games – if a player is injured or out of the team his overall WAR will drop. This is why new Hawk James Frawley, who missed a month with a pectoral injury, is at the bottom of that group.
For this reason the second list is useful, with Aphex ranking the 15 recruits based on their WAR per game played. Beams again sits first on that list, ahead of Greater Western Sydney's Ryan Griffen and North Melbourne's Shaun Higgins.
The final list shows how a recruit has performed in comparison to his 2014 form and WAR, highlighting Christensen and Melbourne pick-up Jeff Garlett to be most improved on their output last year.
Jarrad Waite, who crossed from Carlton to North Melbourne in the off-season, is ranked eighth in that group about the same level as his previous two seasons.
If he goes on in the second half at the same form, he will have produced a similar WAR to 2013 and 2014, meaning the Kangaroos got what they expected when they brought him into the club.
Underneath Waite on the third list are players who have regressed this season according to their WAR.
List 1 – Direct comparison by WAR.
Who has brought in the most wins for their team this year?
1. Dayne Beams
2. Ryan Griffen
3. Shaun Higgins
4. Allen Christensen
5. Travis Varcoe
6. Heritier Lumumba
7. Joel Patfull
8. Patrick Ryder
9. Jeff Garlett
10. Jarrad Waite
11. Rhys Stanley
12. Mitch Clark
13. Adam Cooney
14. Tom Boyd
15. James Frawley
List 2 – Value per game played.
Who has the best WAR per game played?
1. Dayne Beams
2. Ryan Griffen
3. Shaun Higgins
4. Allen Christensen
5. Travis Varcoe
6. Heritier Lumumba
7. Joel Patfull
8. Patrick Ryder
9. Adam Cooney
10. Jeff Garlett
11. Jarrad Waite
12. Rhys Stanley
13. James Frawley
14. Mitch Clark
15. Tom Boyd
List 3 – Comparison to 2014.
Who has improved their WAR most since 2014 and who has gone backwards?
1. Allen Christensen
2. Jeff Garlett
3. Dayne Beams
4. Tom Boyd
5. Travis Varcoe
6. Shaun Higgins
7. Ryan Griffen
8. Jarrad Waite
9. Joel Patfull
10. Rhys Stanley
11. Heritier Lumumba
12. Patrick Ryder
13. Adam Cooney
14. James Frawley
*Mitch Clark did not play in 2014 and has been excluded from this list
