I watched the Grand Final Replay last night before I went to bed. I needed to watch it one more time before I turned all my focus onto the 2011 season. After watching the game, I fell asleep very satisfied with life and slept very soundly. However, I woke up this morning with my full attention on round one. I have taken my Collingwood cap off and switched back to full-analysis mode.
Collingwood enters the game overwhelming favourites with Port paying around $9 for the win. This comes off the back of an undefeated pre-season which saw the Pies win their first night premiership since 1979. However, from a Port Adelaide point of view, they would also be quite satisfied with their pre-season form having won their last three practice matches against Richmond, Geelong and GWS, in all convincing fashion.
It is also worth noting that Port Adelaide had a very quick start to the 2010 season so will be looking to replicate that in 2011. Further, the Power won five of their last seven games last season under new coach Matthew Primus so will be looking to carry that momentum into the new year. They face the toughest of challenges first up and it will be a real test for the young Power side.
Malthouse implored his players at the season launch to remain the ‘hunter’. This mentality was at the forefront of Collingwood’s success in 2010 as they entered the season with a game-plan specifically designed to break down the reigning premiers Geelong. In 2011, it will be all the other clubs designing a plan to unhinge the Magpies famed forward press. The Magpies ‘hunted’ their opponents all year, taking tackling and defensive pressure to an entirely new level. For Collingwood to be successful this year, it will have to maintain that level of intensity and perhaps even improve upon it as the rest of the competition attempts to catch up.
Recent History
Collingwood has won the last three matches on the trot against Port Adelaide. However, it is yet to face a Power side coached by Matthew Primus.
The last time these two clubs met was in Round 15 last season at AAMI stadium which happened to be Mark Williams’ last game as head-coach and Primus took over the week after. The Magpies ran out 26 point winners but had an early fright when the Power kicked the opening five goals of the game. A seven goal to two second quarter had scores level going into half-time, and it was all the Magpies from there.
Dane Swan has been the main destroyer against Port Adelaide in recent history, picking up 39 and 48 disposals in his last two matches. He picked up two Brownlow votes in the round 15 clash last season. For Port Adelaide, David Rodan was the best performed last season polling the three votes with a 26 disposal, 3 goal and 8 tackle game. Chris Dawes polled the one vote with a three-goal game. Brett Ebert also generally plays well against Collingwood, having kicked nine goals in his last three matches against the Magpies.
The (Pre-Season) Formline
Obviously Collingwood has hit the season running winning the NAB Cup premiership. However, I thought the Magpies looked quite rusty during the pre-season. They had blue-collar victories over Sydney and West Coast and realistically just did enough to get across the line without having to click into full gear. Essendon presented a greater threat to Collingwood and really pushed the Pies right through the match.
From a Collingwood point of view, Malthouse would be happy in the knowledge that when his side was pressed, they were able to lift a notch and swing momentum back into their favour. I think that the hard-fought win in the NAB Cup Grand Final was the perfect launching block for the Magpies as it forced them to play better and gel. It’s worth noting that a number of Magpies had managed pre-season’s after a longer than expected end to the 2010 season so it is not a huge concern that a few are still a bit rusty.
Nonetheless, a number of fringe players really impressed throughout the entire pre-season and will be pushing hard for selection from Round 1. In particular, Simon Buckley, Lachlan Keefe, Leon Davis and John McCarthy have shown that they are more than capable of playing senior footy in 2011.
At the Selection Table
Port Adelaide has a fairly healthy list at the moment with most top 22 players available. However they still have concerns. A few youngsters pushing through are on the injury list such as Jacobs, Lobbe and Moore. Jacob Surjan is not on the injury list but will probably be out for a few more weeks due to his interrupted pre-season. He is a major loss for the Power as he holds down a key back pocket position. Ebert has also had a limited pre-season. Thomas may also struggle to be available for Round 1.
Much attention will be placed on whether Primus elects to play Chad Cornes. He was dropped for the Power’s last practice match against GWS but went back to the SANFL and kicked six goals. It looks as if he’ll be used mainly as a forward this year, but it seems the Power are hell-bent on playing youth in 2011 meaning Cornes is likely to play a lot of SANFL.
The focus around Collingwood will be how Malthouse structures his defence without his skipper Nick Maxwell or premiership fullback Nathan Brown. Ben Reid is also listed as a test following an ankle injury so may struggle to get himself right for round one. Chris Tarrant will slot straight into fullback, however I doubt he is a like-for-like replacement for Nathan Brown. Tarrant often has struggled against taller forwards, and may be exploited by Daniel Stewart who stands at 200cm.
Krakouer should get his debut for Collingwood following his terrific NAB Cup, especially with Alan Didak far from match-fit. Tyson Goldsack also seems a fair way off after he suffered glandular fever. Simon Buckley and John McCarthy may have to bide their time.
Key Match-Ups
Port Adelaide Forward line
Port have a nice mix of youth and experience in the forward line, with three talls and a couple of mid-sized forwards. Collingwood’s defence will be tested early without their skipper Nick Maxwell.
Schulz v Tarrant - Tarrant’s form has been patchy during the NAB Cup but he should prove a decent match-up for Schultz who realistically becomes Power’s key forward in the absence of Tredrea
Motlop v O’Brien - You get the feeling that it is a crunch year for Daniel Motlop after he fell out of favour in 2010. He has definitely put in a strong pre-season on the track and looks to have renewed hunger. However he will face a very tight checking opponent in O’Brien who will also look to run off him at every chance. One of Motlop’s biggest criticisms has been his accountability so he is going to have to lift this area of the game as Harry is one of the best rebounding defenders going around.
Westhoff v Reid: Reid is under an injury cloud but should be expected to play. Westhoff will be looking to take the next step in 2011 after a solid season last year. He’ll most likely have to try and hold down the Centre Half Forward position and perhaps even assist in any other position he is needed around the ground.
X-Factor: Daniel Stewart - As mentioned above, I think Stewart could pose a real threat to the Magpies’ defence which is why I advocate Lachlan Keeffe playing. With the new substitute rules, I think Stewart will be a key player for the Power as he’ll be asked to assist in the ruck and play forward. He’ll be a tough match-up for most sides as he is a genuine forward who stands 200cm tall.
X-Factor: Heath Shaw - With Leon Davis assisting down back, we might see more of Shaw on a wing which is a role he was used in towards the end of 2010. Shaw capped off another strong pre-season with the Michael Tuck medal as best afield in the NAB Cup Grand Final. Collingwood’s greatest strength is its run off half back, and Heath Shaw is the leader in this area.
Midfield
One of the real points of interest this year will be whether teams elect to tag Swan or Pendlebury. I have a feeling that most sides will send their best tagger onto Pendlebury. I think the view will be that Pendlebury is more taggable and is more damaging. Alternatively, Dale Thomas may become a target as he has become a star midfielder but is yet to experience really tight tags. We’ll get a really good indication from this match as Port Adelaide is one of the few sides that possess two high quality taggers in Cassisi and Kane Cornes.
Swan v K. Cornes - I think Primus would have seen Dane Swan absolutely tear up the Power in the last two encounters and will therefore ensure he is tagged. Kane Cornes is one of the best going around and always wins a lot of the ball. The heavy rotation of Swan may also see Cornes used on Dale Thomas in large patches.
Pendlebury v Cassisi - Scott Pendlebury will captain the Magpies in the absence of Nick Maxwell. Therefore, this matchup would be a battle between the two opposing skippers. Pendlebury’s form across the entire pre-season has been very solid and I actually think he could even take another step this year and become even more damaging. Cassisi is a great tackler and also a solid ball-winner himself, so he would keep Pendlebury honest. I think Scott will become the number 1 target for opposition taggers in 2011.
Rodan v Johnson - Rodan has made a 2nd miraculous recovery from knee surgery after having his 2nd LARS operation in the off-season. He returned against Geelong in the third week of practice games and looked very good. I think Malthouse will be highlighting Rodan as Port’s main match winner for this game and will likely use Ben Johnson in a defensive tagging role. Otherwise Jarryd Blair has been used as a tagger during the off-season.
Pearce v Wellingham - Danyle Pearce is the other Power midfielder I would closely check if I was Malthouse. His pace and class could break the game open and can punch holes through defensive zones. Wellingham’s form over the off-season has not been great, however he has often been used in defensive roles in the past which makes him an incredibly valuable player to the side.
Boak v Ball - Travis Boak is a real star on the rise and should end the 2011 season as one of the competitions best midfielders. He has had a terrific pre-season and played well in all the practice matches. He’ll probably go head to head against Ball in the middle.
X-Factor: Robbie Gray - Although he has played most of his career as a forward flanker, it looks as if Gray will spend far more time through the middle this year. Fitness will always be the concern, but the early signs are good as Gray has dominated all his practice matches pre-season and is seemingly full fit. It would be exciting to see a head to head battle with Dale Thomas.
X-Factor - Steele Sidebottom - I think Steele will see much more midfield time this year as his development continues into its third season. He has already shown throughout the NAB Cup that he is really sharp and capable of taking the next step. He was one of Collingwood’s best throughout the entire finals series last season proving his big-game abilities. He will still be used close to goals as he is an elite crumber, however it will be his value as a midfield rotation which will see him take the next step as a player.
Collingwood Forward Line
Collingwood’s forward line looks incredibly strong again in 2010, especially with the addition of Krakouer. However, Didak and Macaffer had very limited pre-seasons and are not at their sharpest. Port Adelaide possess a very underrated backline but will likely be without Surjan.
Cloke v Chaplin - Travis looked a little rusty in the NAB Cup but should return back to his best quickly. Chaplin is a very reliable defender and is likely to get the job first up on Cloke.
Dawes v Carlile - Chris Dawes was very underrated in Collingwood’s premiership success last year. I thought he was brilliant in the Grand Final despite not getting a lot of the ball. He now has the confidence of knowing his spot in the team is secure and I think he will take the next step this year and become a genuine 50 goal a year forward. Carlile will have his hands full with Dawes who looked a real monster throughout the NAB Cup. However, like Chaplin, Carlile is underrated and it will be a great strength battle between the two.
Leigh Brown v Trengove - Brown’s form over the NAB Cup was woeful, but I suppose that’s expected after such a big 2010. Trengove is likely to take this match-up as both players are their sides back-up ruckmen. Trengove will probably share with Stewart as the pinch-hitting ruckman, whilst Brown will continue to play his attacking back-up ruck role. Trengove has had a terrific summer and will be keen to impress as a recently inducted member of the leadership group.
X-Factor: Andrew Krakouer - Hard to go past Krakouer’s form in the NAB Cup. He is a real scoreboard threat as he is so dangerous and slick at ground level. I hope the Magpies give him midfield time as well because this is the position he dominated in the WAFL. Hard to find a real match-up for Krakouer.
X-Factor: Steven Salopek - After a number of injury-riddled years, Salopek looks set to re-claim his spot in the side. I’ve named him in the backline here as that is the role Mark Williams used him in for the majority of last year, however I believe we’ll see him push more into the midfield under Primus.
The Ruck
Jolly v Brogan - This could be a really pivotal match-up. Jolly has looked rusty in his two NAB Cup games whilst Brogan will be asked to shoulder a lot of the responsibility in the ruck this year. Jolly’s form is not a huge concern for me as he started the season slowly last year as well and his pre-season was carefully managed so he would run out the full year strongly. Brogan is not getting any younger, however is still a really tough opponent due to his aggression and size.
The real question will be how the back-up rucks fare. Although Brown was dominant in 2010, I still believe most sides will look at his position as a weakness in the Collingwood side. He is far too short to be a ruckman and surely opposition coaches are going to look to take advantage when Leigh Brown is in the ruck. It could be a strategy to use Brogan in the ruck at times when Brown is pinch-hitting to try and get the advantage. Then use guys like Trengove and Stewart to nullify Jolly and try and work him over.
The Wrap Up
As always against Collingwood, the start will be essential. Collingwood is the best starting side in the competition, winning 21 of 26 first quarters last year and typically blowing opponents out of the water immediately.
Fortunately for the Power, I actually see them starting quite strong this week. I think they will be really fired up and hit in hard early. If they can hold onto the Pies early then they may be a chance. On the flip side, I can’t see Port Adelaide sustaining the level of intensity required to run with Collingwood all game. You know Collingwood is going to hit in hard from start to finish and have a battle-hardened midfield. Port Adelaide will have debutants along with a few other young players like Hartlett coming back into the side.
I’ll have to stick with the Magpies for this one.
Collingwood by 22.
By David Natoli
aka DaVe86
