First preliminary final: Geelong (1st) v Collingwood (6th), Friday 7.50pm (EST)
UNiTAB market: Geelong $1.26, Collingwood $3.75
Head to head in ‘07: Round 15, Cats by 16 points.
How they got here:
Geelong – Reached a second preliminary final in four years with as emphatic a finals win as you are ever likely to see – a 106-point caning of the Kangaroos in the first qualifying final. That result took the Cats’ record to 17 wins in 18 outings since losing to the Roos in Round 5.
Collingwood – the Pies booked their preliminary final berth in the most dramatic of fashions, eliminating reigning premier West Coast with a 19-point extra-time victory. A Collingwood victory had looked most unlikely mid-way through the third term, when the Eagles led by as many as 23 points.
Match-up to watch:
Gary Ablett (Geelong) v whomever – With Brodie Holland out of action, the Pies lack a true tagger, meaning one of their “regular” midfielders is going to have to be especially diligent. In truth, no player has been able to completely stop Ablett and certainly the Kangaroos battled for options when he amassed 32 possessions and kicked two goals against them a fortnight ago. Irishman Martin Clarke has been mentioned in dispatches as a candidate to spend time on the Brownlow Medal favourite – a big ask for any first-year player, let alone one who didn’t pick up the oval-shaped ball until late last year.
The breakdown:
Collingwood has bucked all the odds to get this far and there is little doubt that Mick Malthouse’s side has been severely underrated. But can they upset the Cats? The Pies were admirable in their efforts in the Round 15 loss to Geelong at the MCG, but common logic has Mark Thompson’s charges advancing to the grand final. The Cats gave a timely reminder of their talent in the first week of the finals when they humiliated the Kangaroos. The margin is unlikely to be as big this time out. However, Geelong deserves its warm favouritism.
Second preliminary final: Port Adelaide (2nd) v Kangaroos (4th), Saturday 4pm (Adelaide time)
UNiTAB market: Port Adelaide $1.31, Kangaroos $3.30
Head to head in ‘07: Round 2, Power by 18 points.
How they got here:
Port Adelaide – the Power were made to work for it, but earned a deserved week’s rest, when they accounted for West Coast in the second qualifying final. Port trailed by almost four goals in the third quarter but, like Collingwood last week, eventually prevailed over the Eagles in an archetypal arm wrestle.
Kangaroos – the Roos completed a miracle form turnaround when they ended Hawthorn’s season with a 33-point win in last weekend’s semi-finals. Just a week after succumbing to Geelong by 106 points, Dean Laidley’s side was too strong for the in-form Hawks.
Match-up to watch:
Brendon Lade (Port) v Hamish McIntosh (Kangaroos) – The commonly held theory is that Lade narrowly edged McIntosh out of an All-Australian berth. Footy fans can judge for themselves on Saturday whether the correct decision was made. Lade is an accomplished ruckman with a premiership medallion from 2004, but McIntosh is well and truly a gun on the rise – as evidenced by his 23 possessions and 24 hit-outs last weekend. Their battle will be pivotal.
The breakdown:
The Power are well-fancied by punters and not without reason – they were rewarded for a most consistent season with second spot on the ladder and beat the Kangaroos by 18 points in their only meeting this year. But the Roos, as shown against Hawthorn, are made of stern stuff. If the Kangaroos can ensure the match is played to their own terms – as they did last week versus the Hawks – they are a decent chance of causing an upset. Certainly this game looks more likely to produce a surprise result than Friday’s.
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the club.
