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• Fantasy form watch: Disaster strikes in-form Gaz
• How did your club's players fare in this week's state leagues?

THE TEAM with the best percentage after 16 games has not won the premiership since Geelong saluted in 2007.

It's a fact for Hawthorn to ponder as it moves into the back end of the season the hottest of favourites for the 2015 premiership.

The Hawks have an extraordinary percentage of 170.05 yet sit third on the ladder, two games behind Fremantle.

In 2012, they sat in the same position, third on the ladder, with 12 wins from 16 games and the best percentage.

They lost to the Sydney Swans in an epic Grand Final.

History is against the Dockers too, with the top team after 16 games winning just four flags since 2001.

All that says the premiership race remains wide open with six games to go.

• After the siren: The Dockers are far from done

Fremantle coach Ross Lyon never counts his chickens anyway, but he knows better than most that recent history is a sobering reminder for all clubs near the top of the table.

After Saturday's game against Richmond, Lyon said percentage didn't lie, implicitly acknowledging that Hawthorn and West Coast's ascendancy in that area justified their position as flag favourites.

But he also said he knew what had to be fixed if the Dockers were to contend.

Both Lyon and his Hawks counterpart Alastair Clarkson understand that favourites can fall at the final hurdle. 

In 2009, St Kilda was flying with Lyon at the helm.

The Saints had not lost a game and boasted a percentage of 169.8, but they came back to the pack to lose a classic Grand Final to the Cats in the dying minutes.

There are other vagaries making July a dangerous month to predict premierships.

With clubs from three different states sitting in the top four, it's likely at least one club will have to travel to play in a qualifying final.

Even for the two top-four clubs who win their opening game of the finals and earn a week off, the final two cut-throat games test nerves and make luck a real factor.

Remember Geelong defender Tom Harley's nervous attempt to mark in the opening minutes of the 2007 preliminary final? Or Hawthorn's Luke Hodge suffering a bout of gastro and missing the 2013 preliminary final?

Let's face it, if Shaun Burgoyne and Sam Mitchell hadn't turned it on in the last quarter of the 2012 preliminary final against Adelaide, the Hawthorn story may be way different.

Collingwood's Ben Reid came into the 2011 preliminary final against Hawthorn under an injury cloud and Dayne Beams suffered a soft tissue injury early in that game.

The simple message is things change in August and September – and in this year, October.

This premiership remains up for grabs. 

WHERE THE CONTENDERS STOOD AFTER 16 GAMES PLAYED *

* After round 16 or 17, depending on that season's byes
** Given the 17-team competition, Collingwood played 16 games in the first 17 rounds of 2011. Eight other teams had played 17