Geelong v Carlton
Why the Cats win:
- Geelong has dominated Carlton in matches at Etihad Stadium. From seven contests at the venue the Cats remain undefeated - and have done so with relative ease, winning five of the seven games by more than 50 points.
- Carlton upset Geelong in round 5 at the MCG. The Blues led by 31 points at half time and ran out easy winners by six goals. The victory made the Blues one of the few teams in recent seasons to string together consecutive wins over the Cats.
The Mozz: The Blues will be desperate to win but three in a row over the Cats might just be too much to ask, especially a week out from September. Cats to win.
St Kilda v Richmond
Why the Saints win:
- St Kilda was too strong for Richmond earlier this season, winning by 38 points on a Friday night in round 11 at Etihad Stadium.
- The last time Richmond played at Etihad Stadium in round 21 was in 2005 and the Tigers were successful, defeating Hawthorn.
The Mozz: The season is all over for the tiring young Tigers, while the Saints will be looking to conquer all and boost morale heading into their finals campaign. St Kilda easily.
Hawthorn v Fremantle
Why the Hawks win:
- Hawthorn defeated Fremantle by 22 points in the most recent contest between these sides, back in round 8, 2009 at Subiaco Oval.
- Fremantle has won four of their last five matches played in Round 21 including three wins by more than 50 points.
The Mozz: Hawthorn has had the edge over Freo in Launceston all along, and now half the Fremantle side has been rested, you’d say the Hawks should cement their finals berth with a win.
Collingwood v Adelaide
Why the Magpies win:
- Last time these sides met was in a thrilling semi final last season at the MCG. The Magpies staged an impressive comeback to win by five points after trailing by 26 at half time. That victory continued their recent form over the Crows; they’ve now taken the points in five of the last seven matches between the sides.
- In the Crows’ favour they have won two of the three matches played between these sides in round 21, including the most recent by a whopping 110 points in 2005 at AAMI Stadium.
The Mozz: The Magpies are an all-conquering force at the moment and certainly won’t be stopped by the Crows - mozz or no mozz, Collingwood will win.
Sydney Swans v Western Bulldogs
Why the Swans win:
- The Swans and Bulldogs last met on a Saturday night at the SCG in 2006, with the Swans winning by 26 points. In fact, the Swans have won three of the four previous Saturday night meetings between the sides at the venue.
- The Bulldogs have dominated the Swans in recent seasons, winning the last five matches between the sides.
The Mozz: The Dogs had a shocker last week while the Swans posted a memorable victory over Freo in the west. Even though this match is being played in Sydney, expect the Bulldogs to come out snarling - and take the four points, because there is no greater mozz than a side on the rebound from an embarrassing loss.
Port Adelaide v Melbourne
Why the Power win:
- Port Adelaide has dominated Melbourne on home turf, winning 10 of 12 matches played at AAMI Stadium - including the last five on the trot by an average of more than 50 points.
- Melbourne beat Port Adelaide in round nine this season at TIO Stadium. After leading by 33 points at three-quarter time, the Demons managed to hold off a final term surge from the Power to win by one point for their second consecutive win over Port Adelaide.
The Mozz: With neither side in finals contention, they’ll be playing for pride here. Port should have the edge at home, especially given Melbourne’s struggles at AAMI Stadium.
Essendon v Brisbane Lions
Why the Bombers win:
- The Bombers have had the better of the Lions recently, winning three of the last five matches between the sides.
- The last time the Brisbane Lions travelled outside of Queensland to play in Round 21 they were successful, defeating Geelong in consecutive seasons at Skilled Stadium, in 2001-2002.
- Lions coach Michael Voss has enjoyed great success against Essendon; as a player he played in 12 winning teams from 18 games and he is yet to suffer a loss to the Bombers as a coach.
The Mozz: It’s been another controversial week for the Bombers and they’ll either come out firing or be a total flop. Flip a coin - or just go with the home side, as the Lions haven’t played too well away from home this season (or at home either, to be honest).
West Coast v North Melbourne
Why the Eagles win:
- West Coast holds a clear advantage over North Melbourne at Subiaco Oval, winning eight of 11 matches. The Eagles have won the last five games between the sides at their home ground, with the Kangaroos last victory at the venue way back in 2001.
- North Melbourne proved too strong for the Eagles earlier this season, winning the round three encounter at Etihad Stadium by 25 points.
The Mozz: North Melbourne loves its greats and has a habit of winning milestone matches, but the Eagles will be desperate to reward the home crowd with a victory in their last game at Subiaco for 2010. Expect the “Shinboner spirit” to get the Kangaroos over the line in a close one.
* prices via Betfair.com, correct as at 12:30pm AEST, August 20, 2010
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
