The Brisbane Lions, with Jonathan Brown taking the field for the first time in 2007, will look to prove the punters wrong for a fourth straight week, when they tackle Carlton in Saturday night's NAB Cup Grand Final at Docklands.
The Lions are yet to start a match in the pre-season competition as favourites and, with key forward Daniel Bradshaw a withdrawal from the initial 28-man squad, the Leigh Matthews-coached side looks set to be underdogs again. Thursday night's head-to-head betting had the Lions at $1.88, compared to Carlton, the two-time reigning wooden-spooners, at $1.85.
While punters may not have flocked to the Lions, the team itself will go into the match with plenty of confidence, not least because of the return of star forward Brown. The powerhouse 25-year-old missed the last 12 games of 2006 with a stress fracture and had his summer interrupted by a knee complaint - but he's finally ready to go.
If Brown can pick up where he left off last year, Lions fans could be in for something special on Saturday night. He booted 35 goals from 10 games in 2006, 26 of them from Rounds 7-10, including consecutive hauls of seven, seven and eight. Brown is a noted first-up performer, having marked his return from suspension and knee trouble in Round 6 of 2005 with a dominant eight-goal performance in three quarters against Essendon.
Unfortunately for Lions fans he won't be joined in the forward line by partner-in-crime Bradshaw, whose hamstring won't be put to a match test until Round 1 of the season proper, despite being named in the preliminary squad. Other omissions from that squad are second year defender Wayde Mills and 2006 draftees James Hawksley and Chris Schmidt.
For the Blues, who came from 37 points down in the third quarter to down the Kangaroos at Carrara last week, the inclusions were young guns Josh Kennedy and Luke Blackwell and veteran Simon Wiggins.
The Lions must find a way to combat Carlton's in-form forward Brendan Fevola, who has booted 15 NAB Cup goals to date in 2007 - including eight in a match-winning performance against the Roos.
The Lions team (with guernsey numbers): 2. Chris Johnson, 4. Ben Fixter, 5. Scott Harding, 6. Luke Power, 7. Jed Adcock, 8. Tim Notting, 9. Ashley McGrath, 10. Matthew Moody, 11. Justin Sherman, 15. Matthew Tyler, 16. Jonathan Brown, 17. Jared Brennan, 20. Simon Black, 21. Daniel Merrett, 24. Joel Patfull, 25, Jason Roe, 30. Robert Copeland, 31. Cameron Wood, 32. Cheynee Stiller, 35. Michael Rischitelli, 40. Will Hamill, 42. Marcus Allan, 43. Beau McDonald, 46. Colm Begley.
The Carlton squad: 1. Andrew Walker, 2. Jordan Russell, 3. Marc Murphy, 4. Bryce Gibbs, 5. Josh Kennedy, 6. Kade Simpson, 7. Adam Bentick, 8. Lance Whitnall, 11. Cain Ackland, 12 Matthew Lappin, 13. Luke Blackwell, 14. Brad Fisher, 16. Shaun Grigg, 17. Setanta O’hAilpin, 18. Paul Bower, 19. Eddie Betts, 23. Adam Hartlett, 24. Nick Stevens, 25. Brendan Fevola, 28. Cameron Cloke, 29. Heath Scotland, 30. Jarrad Waite, 32. Bret Thornton, 33. Ryan Houlihan, Simon Wiggins, 38. Ryan Jackson, 43. Anthony Koutoufides, 44. Andrew Carrazzo.
Round 3 stars: Luke Power (Lions)While Brownlow medallist Simon Black and up-and-comer Michael Rischitelli have drawn the rave reviews in the pre-season, Power's contributions have been just as important to the Lions' NAB Cup fortunes. At his best, Power is not only an elite-class midifelder but also a first-rate finisher - as evidenced in 2000, when he booted 52 goals as a small forward. His instincts in front of goal played an important role in last week's 12-point semi-final win over Geelong, when his conversion late in the last term - originally ruled a supergoal but later rescinded to a normal six-pointer - provided the sealer. Another big year looks on the cards.
Marc Murphy (Carlton) The Lions were keen to get their hands on the son of Fitzroy champion John Murphy under the father-son rule in 2005 and his display at Carrara last week against the Kangaroos shows why. The Blues had the next No.1 draft pick, highly rated South Australian Bryce Gibbs, on show as well, but it was Murphy, along with spearhead Brendan Fevola, who stood out. Evasive, seemingly always aware, neat with his disposal and blessed with a good sense for where the goals are, Murphy looked anything like a player with only 13 games to his credit, as a brilliant Blues comeback sealed an exciting win.
On the punt: If status quo holds, the Lions will, amazingly, go into a NAB Cup final as betting underdogs for the fourth week in succession. Overnight the Lions were at $1.88 to become pre-season premiers for the first time, with Carlton sitting at $1.85.
Potential punters who find those odds a little skinny on both sides might instead like to look at the margin markets, where the Lions are $2.30 to win by 39 points and under and $7.00 to win by 40 points or more. Investors can also get $2.40 about the Lions leading at half-time and the full-time siren.
Simon Black, who has enjoyed an outstanding pre-season is favourite for the Michael Tuck Medal as best afield, at the tempting price of $5.50. The next closest Lion is Luke Power at $8, with Jonathan Brown also in the market at $12, despite being yet to step out under match conditions in 2007. Brendan Fevola and Marc Murphy head the betting for the Blues at $9 and $10 respectively. Anyone searching for an in-form Lions roughie might look to tough utility Robbie Copeland ($51) or Daniel Merrett ($41) - with the latter likely to get the job of stopping Fevola.
NAB Cup history: The Lions are still chasing their first ever NAB Cup - although Fitzroy were pre-season/night series premiers in both 1959 and 1978. The Lions lost to Port Adelaide in the 2001 grand final by 85 points, before going on to claim a first-ever AFL premiership later in the year. The Lions have an overall 19-21 record in the pre-season, while Carlton are 57-39. The Blues are shooting for their fourth pre-season premiership, with their most reason summer flag in 2005. Surprisingly, given their 16 season proper premierships stretching back to 1906, all of Carlton's pre-season triumphs have come since 1983.
2006The Lions scored a thrilling one-point win over Essendon in Round 1 of the NAB Cup, as AFL football made an official return to Carrara and the Gold Coast, the former homes of the Brisbane Bears. Jared Brennan was the hero, soccering an instinctive goal that put the Lions in front in the final quarter and then providing the behind that broke a deadlock with six seconds left and ultimately proved decisive. The Lions bowed out against Melbourne in Round 2 the following week at Docklands, putting in a brave effort but eventually succumbing by nine points. Carlton entered the 2006 pre-season looking for back-to-back NAB Cups and hoping to erase some of the memories of a regular season wooden spoon. But they came unstuck at the hands of eventual NAB Cup winners Geelong in Round 1, going down by 28 points at Docklands.
2005The Lions travelled north to Cazaly Stadium for Round 1 but Melbourne, buoyed by three nine-point supergoals, emerged 45-point winners. The Demons were stopped in Round 2 by the Blues, who emerged 10-point winners at Docklands en route to their third pre-season premiership. After taking care of Essendon in Round 1 and then Melbourne, the Blues carried on to a 51-point semi-final win over the Western Bulldogs and a 27-point grand final victory against highly-fancied West Coast.
Odds & sods: - Last week this preview noted that, on the supergoal front – when it rains, it pours. The same rings true headed into the grand final, with Jed Adcock, Simon Black and the somewhat unlikely figure of Irish rookie Colm Begley joining the list of Lions to have contributed nine-pointers. Given that club consisted of just one member - full-back Daniel Merrett - going into the Round 2 clash with the Western Bulldogs, the now six-strong contingent is some achievement indeed. The other Lions to register maximum pre-season scores are Robbie Copeland and Luke Power.
- Saturday night's game will mark the first time this pre-season that the Lions' triple-premiership coach Leigh Matthews has matched up against another mentor who has tasted ultimate AFL success. Matthews, whose coaching CV also includes a flag with Collingwood in 1990, has so far come up against maiden premiership aspirants Ross Lyon (St Kilda), Rodney Eade (Western Bulldogs) and Mark Thompson (Geelong). Of course, Eade and Thompson have both won premierships as a player - the former on four occasions with Hawthorn, three of them with Matthews as a teammate. Carlton coach Denis Pagan staked a claim to being the coach of the 1990s by guiding North Melbourne to seven consecutive finals appearances, three grand finals and two flags.
- The Lions enter Saturday's grand final with a fine recent record against the Blues. In fact, you have to go all the way back to Round 8 of 2001 to find the Lions' last loss to Carlton. In a match often identified as a turning point in the lead-up to the Lions' historic 2001 premiership, Anthony Koutoufides ran rampant in a 74-point Carlton victory. Koutoufides, at that stage pretty much the most complete player going around in the AFL, helped himself to 36 disposals, 11 marks and three goals. In a mark of the Blues' dominance, only six Lions players received best-and-fairest votes. The Lions subsequently won 16 of their next 17 games, a first-ever flag as a merged identity and follow-up premierships in 2002 and 2003.
Broadcast details: TV - Network Seven Melbourne - 7:30pm (30 mins delay approx)
Brisbane - 6:20pm LIVE (NB: shortened 6pm news broadcast)
RadioMelbourne - Triple M (7pm), K Rock & SEN & 3AW (6pm), ABC 774 (6.30pm)
Brisbane - Triple M (6pm), ABC 936 (7pm)
Where to from here? The Lions, like all other AFL clubs, will have the weekend of March 24/25 off in the lead-up to the start of the season proper. Round 1 will see the Lions host Hawthorn at the Gabba on March 31.
The weekend's other games: Richmond v Collingwood, Friday March 16, Mildura
Hawthorn v Essendon: Saturday March 17, Cranbourne
Adelaide v Fremantle: Friday March 16,AAMI Stadium
West Coast Eagles v Western Bulldogs: Saturday March 17, Subiaco Oval
Geelong v Melbourne: Saturday March 17, Geelong
Kangaroos v St Kilda: Friday March 16, MC Labour Park
Sydney v Port Adelaide: Friday March 16, Homebush
