WITH four rounds remaining, the pressure is on for top-four spots and a place in the lower reaches of the eight. We take a look at the contenders and their chances.
Collingwood: 1st - Played 18, won 17, lost one. Percentage 186.06
To come: St Kilda (Etihad Stadium) Brisbane Lions (MCG), Fremantle (Patersons Stadium), Geelong (MCG)
The wins keep on coming and the percentage keeps on rising. St Kilda presents a decent challenge, while Fremantle in Perth is no gimme, but realistically only Geelong in the final round represents a major threat. It's a pity the round 24 clash is effectively a dead rubber.
Geelong: 2nd - Played 19, won 17, lost two. Percentage 160.42
To come: Adelaide (AAMI Stadium), Bye, Sydney Swans (Skilled Stadium) Collingwood (MGC)
In almost any other season, the Cats' winning record and massive percentage would be good enough to top the ladder, but not in 2011. Adelaide and the Swans at Fortress Skilled Stadium are almost certain wins, with Geelong destined to finish second.
Hawthorn: 3rd - Played 18, won 14, lost four. Percentage 135.64
To come: Port Adelaide (MCG), Carlton (Etihad Stadium), Western Bulldogs (MCG), Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium)
A favourable draw is likely to see the Hawks safely to the double chance. A win over Carlton would ensure top-four status.
Carlton: 4th - Played 19, won 13, lost five, drawn one. Percentage 136.32
To come: Fremantle (Patersons Stadium), Hawthorn (Etihad Stadium), Bye, St Kilda (MCG)
The round 22 Friday night assignment against Hawthorn shapes as a critical match for the Blues' chances of a top-four finish. Fremantle at Patersons Stadium and St Kilda in round 24, with Carlton coming off the bye, are also danger games. The Eagles are looming.
West Coast: 5th - Played 18, won 13, lost five. Percentage 121.59
To come: Melbourne (Etihad Stadium), Essendon (Patersons Stadium), Brisbane Lions (Gabba), Adelaide (Patersons Stadium)
The Eagles just keep on producing, and their draw could easily see four more wins, which would guarantee a double chance. Fourth place would mean a trip to Melbourne to face the Pies, so even fifth and a home final against the eighth-placed side wouldn't be a disaster. But top four looks likely.
St Kilda: 6th - Played 18, won 10, lost seven, drawn one. Percentage 111.91
To come: Collingwood (Etihad Stadium), Sydney Swans (ANZ Stadium), North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium), Carlton (MCG)
Six wins in a row have put the Saints comfortably inside the eight. Although they have some tough assignments - not the least of which is Collingwood next Friday night - it's hard to see them being tipped out.
Sydney Swans: 7th - Played 18, won nine, lost eight, drawn one. Percentage 108.83
To come: Richmond (MCG), St Kilda (ANZ Stadium), Geelong (Skilled Stadium), Brisbane Lions (SCG)
The loss to Essendon has the Swans looking a little vulnerable, and they cannot afford to drop either of their matches against teams lower on the ladder. Their better percentage than Essendon might be critical ... unless they cop a thrashing from the Cats in Geelong.
Essendon: 8th - Played 19, won nine, lost nine, drawn one. Percentage 100.05
To come: Western Bulldogs (Etihad Stadium), West Coast (Patersons Stadium), Port Adelaide (Etihad Stadium), Bye
The narrowest of wins against the Swans saw the Bombers edge back into the eight, and two wins from their final three matches ought to be enough to see them into the second week of September. But it's likely they will face a nervous weekend on the sidelines in round 24.
Fremantle: 9th - Played 18, won nine, lost nine. Percentage 93.37
To come: Carlton (Patersons Stadium), North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium), Collingwood (Patersons Stadium), Western Bulldogs (Etihad Stadium)
The loss to St Kilda has pushed Freo out of the eight, and things don't get much better, with matches against the Blues and Magpies to come, albeit both at home. They'll need to win at least one of those and knock off the Roos and Dogs to sneak back in.
North Melbourne: 10th - Played 18, won eight, lost 11. Percentage 98.79
To come: Bye, Fremantle (Etihad Stadium), St Kilda (Etihad Stadium), Richmond (Etihad Stadium)
It's a very demanding end to the season for the Kangaroos, who have to face two teams placed higher on the ladder. They need to win at least one of the clashes against Freo and the Saints, and not drop the match with the Tigers. It's in their favour that all three are at Etihad Stadium.
Melbourne: 11th - Played 18, won seven, lost 10, drawn one. Percentage 83.74
To come: West Coast (Etihad Stadium), Richmond (MCG), Gold Coast (MCG), Port Adelaide (AAMI Stadium)
Remarkably, given all that has happened in the past couple of weeks, the Demons can still make the finals … but don't hold your breath. Even if they can make up the deficit in matches, their rotten percentage will hurt.
Western Bulldogs: 12th - Played 18, won seven, lost 11. Percentage 93.89
To come: Essendon (Etihad Stadium), Port Adelaide (AAMI Stadium), Hawthorn (MCG), Fremantle (Etihad Stadium)
Yes, it is 'mathematically-possible' for the Dogs to make it, but no, they won't. A loss to the Bombers next Saturday will mean curtains.
The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of the AFL or its clubs
