Collingwoodfc.com.au has enlisted the help of David Natoli aka DaVe86, who has shot to internet fame for his in-depth Magpie tactical previews. 

Since publishing his first report on Nick's Bulletin Board in early 2008, DaVe86 has become a weekly favourite among the passionate online Magpie Army receiving thousands of views for each article.

The articles are lengthy and have been published in their entirety as the club did not want to hinder DaVe86's creativity during the writing process.

The views expressed in DaVe86's previews are solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Collingwood Football Club.

DaVe86's previews will be published throughout the club's finals campaign.

After a week off to re-energise, I return to preview the preliminary final match between Collingwood and Geelong.

After such an unpredictable home-and-away season, we are left with the same final four that we had last year. In particular, this is the third time in four years that Collingwood and Geelong will square off in the Grand Final qualifier.

I’ve thought long and hard about this game. Realistically, I was preparing this preview the minute Geelong lost to St. Kilda in the qualifying final. The more I think about it, the harder I find it to pick a winner. This is truly an even contest. I think it is going to be extremely close, hard fought and at times brutal.

I also sat down last Friday night to watch Geelong play Fremantle to see if I could learn anything new about the Cats. Unfortunately, the game was over very quickly, and it was hard to really analyse Geelong considering they were under very little pressure. As brilliant as they played, the match was no more than a warm up for this Friday night’s match.

Much will be made about the fact Collingwood has had a week off. There is a theory that sides tend to come out a little flat after a rest, and many fear a potential loss of momentum. I truly do not believe this will be a factor.

The reason I came to this conclusion is that over the last four years, Collingwood has continually returned from the split round full of energy. It was interesting to hear Harry O’Brien refuse to refer to the weekend off as a ‘rest’, instead preferring to call it ‘an extra week to prepare’. This is the message Mick Malthouse has been spruiking to his side over the past fortnight.

It has also been interesting to see Mark Thompson initiate mind games as early as last Friday night’s press conference. Thompson claimed Collingwood had a ‘hatred’ towards Geelong, and were also ‘jealous’ of their success. The truth is that I would be very concerned as a Collingwood supporter if my side was not jealous of such success. I definitely admire what Geelong has achieved and crave to see my team as dominant.

I could not be more excited about Friday night. Despite all the benefits of a week off, it has been agonising having to wait. So let’s get into the analysis.

The Round 19 Encounter - Did we learn anything?
Collingwood will take many positives out of its round 19 victory over the Cats. The 22-point victory was obviously important, however I believe the key was the fact that Collingwood won contested possession and shut down Geelong’s run.

The Magpies implemented their typical forward press and this caused Geelong a lot of problems. Clearing defensive 50 was a real issue and the Cats were forced into a lot of turnovers. The Magpies would have noticed the Cats fell into this same problem against St.Kilda two weeks ago. Again, the Cats really struggled to clear the ball from their defensive 50 and were beaten in the hard ball early.

I’m not sure if it is a level of arrogance or the fact that Geelong is so trained to take risks coming out of defence, but they continually try to pin-point 20 metre passes through masses of opposition players. This works against 13 other sides in the competition, but it is playing into the hands of Collingwood and St.Kilda.

However, from a Geelong point of view, the Cats would have been heartened by the fact that they were able to put together a 10 minute patch of football in the second quarter whereby they totally penetrated all of Collingwood’s defences and kicked a number of quick goals. They also allowed Didak and Swan to roam completely free, whilst a number of their players were well down on input on the night. You would assume more attention would go onto Didak this week.

The other area of concern for Collingwood is the fact that this is a preliminary final, and the Cats are going to fight right down to the wire. In round 19, the game was very much a dead-rubber, and Geelong was quite open about the fact that they already had one eye on finals. Considering this is a knock-out game, Collingwood can never feel assured that they have won the game until the final siren. Geelong will continue to attack. In fact, they may be at their most dangerous if they start falling behind on the scoreboard as they will throw caution to the wind.

The biggest lesson for me out of round 19 was that Collingwood has to win contested possession. A forward press only works if the side gets the ball forward. If the Magpies cannot win out of the centre, then they will not be able to contain Geelong’s run. Expect Gary Ablett to spend much more time in the middle as well.

At the Selection Table
Collingwood will give Sharrod Wellingham and Simon Prestigiacomo every chance to play on Friday night. Both at this stage are expected to play and are likely to be named in the 22 on Thursday night (Teams are released at 5pm).

Geelong has minor concerns over Podsiadly and Chapman who pulled up a little sore after the semi-final; however both have been cleared to play. The major talking point will be whether Andrew Mackie is recalled to the side after he was dropped for the semi-final. Mackie has been far too loose defensively in the second half of the season. However, considering run out of defence has been an issue against the top sides, Mackie’s class down back could be useful. At his best, Mackie is a good defensive player and has been asked to do roles on players such as Franklin in the past. I expect him to return quite fired up. Finding a spot is the tough part.

A Look at Collingwood
Mick Malthouse attempted to mix things up a little bit in the lead up to finals. We saw Heath Shaw move into the midfield, and defenders implement the torp from kick-ins. We saw Macaffer go into a midfield tagging role and Harry O’Brien become the main run out of defence.

However, against the Bulldogs, Malthouse reverted back to a more traditional game plan. Of most interest was the fact that Shaw went back into defence onto Brad Johnson. I think he will play off half back again against Geelong. Doing this means that Harry O’Brien and Nick Maxwell are left untagged as most sides will tag Shaw.

Turnovers are Collingwood’s main avenue to goal. Nearly 30% of their goals this year have come from turnovers. They have also had more tackles than any side in the competition (most importantly the most effective tackles inside 50), rank second for kicks per game, second for points per game and second for least opponent’s points per game.

A Look at Geelong
My major interest regarding Geelong leading into the finals was whether they would adjust their attacking game-style for finals football. They definitely have not. In the opening two rounds of finals, they have put more attention into their own structures than that of their opposition. They are however tending to concede more inside 50’s than in previous years and are a bit patchy from clearances.

The most interesting point I have noticed is that Gary Ablett has played purely as a midfielder in the finals series. Considering he kicked 44 goals in the home-and-away season, this caught me off guard. He is yet to kick a goal so far in the 2010 finals. Nevertheless, his output has been just as high. Against St.Kilda, he was the one who started winning contested footy and helped turn the tide. He continually gets his hands on the ball around stoppages and is near impossible to stop. With Byrnes, Stokes, Varcoe and Steve Johnson up forward, the Cats have plenty of goalkickers without Ablett. Expect Gaz to start on the ball on Friday night.

In 2010, the Cats are ranked first for disposals and first for points per game. However, they rank eighth for tackles.

Inaccuracy
Both sides have been inaccurate of late in front of goals. Geelong seemed to improve in this area last week, however there are still question marks. Interestingly, Collingwood has managed to get away with its poor kicking for goal all year. My theory is that Collingwood has such a strong zone set-up from kick-ins, that they actually generate a lot of their scores from turnovers following a behind. The key for the Magpies is to get the ball inside 50. Then they put all their focus onto locking the ball inside, and keep plugging away until they kick a goal (even if it takes three or four attempts).

With such congestion, and with so many shots coming from the boundary, it is no wonder Collingwood is such an inaccurate team. However, it generates so many scores from opposition kick-ins, that it is not as big a disadvantage as it may seem. Geelong has to be mindful of this. Instead of trying to pinpoint the impossible 20 metre pass, they may be better off kicking it long to a contest.

Key Match-Ups

Geelong’s Forward Line:

Simon Prestigiacomo/Nathan Brown v James Podsiadly - If you could pinpoint one area Geelong has improved in 2010, it would be the fact that they now have a genuine goal-kicking power forward. Pods has been the perfect compliment to the Geelong forward line, and will be looking forward to making his mark on the big stage. He hasn’t necessarily excelled at the MCG this year. Expect Prestigiacomo to get this match-up if he plays. Otherwise, Nathan Brown will get the role after he played on Barry Hall in the qualifying final.

Ben Reid v Cameron Mooney - Mooney is one of the most important players for Geelong this week. He will face a much younger and inexperienced opponent in Ben Reid and look to intimidate him. Question marks still remain on Mooney’s goal-kicking under pressure, so the result could hinge on whether he can convert or not. In round 19, Reid started on Mooney, however he injured himself in the first quarter and then Maxwell was moved onto him. It will be interesting to see whether Reid can match Mooney for strength. Reid has rarely been out-muscled this year, however he has not played in a preliminary final before.

Harry O’Brien v Steve Johnson - I think Harry plays his best footy when on an opponent and blanketing him. Harry played on Johnson in round 19 and did a fairly decent job, restricting him to 17 disposals. However, Johnson was able to kick two goals. Johnson ran into the midfield against Fremantle, and this might be a strategy for Geelong against Collingwood to take O’Brien out of his comfort zone. Nevertheless, Stevie J is in terrific goalkicking form and has had a top season. Both are All Australians, so it looms as a pivotal battle.

Alan Toovey v Matthew Stokes- In 2007, it was Stokes who snuck under the Magpies’ radar in the preliminary final kicking three goals. Stokes has had a tough year, having missed the first half due to suspension. He would feel as if he owes his coach and team for sticking by him. I think Malthouse will use either Johnson or Toovey in a shut down job on Stokes. Collingwood cannot allow him to kick three goals again and break the game open. I have suggested the Toovey match-up as I think Malthouse would prefer to use Johnson more attackingly.

Ben Johnson v Travis Varcoe - I have been impressed by Varcoe in 2010. He has really turned himself into a damaging player with a really good goal-sense and work ethic. His defensive skills have also been good. I would actually use Ben Johnson in a tagging role on Varcoe. Varcoe perhaps works higher up the ground than Stokes, which means Johnson will still be around the ball where he can use his pace in attack as well. Collingwood should pay careful attention to Varcoe because he is one of the inform players of the competition.

Players of Interest: Nick Maxwell & Heath Shaw
Bomber Thompson has a decision to make. Forward tag Maxwell and Shaw, or stick to his own structures and leave loose men of his own down back. The Bulldogs left Maxwell very loose all night, and this really hurt them. However, I can’t see Thompson electing to crowd his forward line too much. I think he will use someone like Byrnes on Heath Shaw, and leave Maxwell loose early, electing to keep a spare man of his own down back. If it’s not working, I think he’ll send Cameron Ling up forward to tag Maxwell. Ling will likely start midfield in a tagging role, but he has proven that he is a dangerous forward option because he is such a good kick for goal.

Collingwood won’t mind if Thompson elects to tag Maxwell because it means that its own forward line will be less congested. This is why I think Thompson will back in his own structure, as he has done all year, and look to generate plenty of run off his half back line

The Midfield:
Ultimately, this is where it is going to be won or lost on Friday night. Collingwood needs to get the footy out of the centre to implement its forward press. It will then look to lock the ball inside 50. Geelong on the other hand will put a lot of emphasis on contested footy and clearances, which are the areas they were beaten in round 19.

Luke Ball v Joel Selwood - Seeing these two square off is going to be the highlight of the night for me. Both will go in head first for the footy and we are sure to see some spine-tingling contests. Selwood bounced back from a disappointing qualifying final with a good game against Fremantle. However, he faces a huge task this week against Ball who has been in great form all year. Clearances will be vital.

Dane Swan v James Bartel - I don’t think Geelong will tight tag Swan, however I think Bartel will be asked to mind him around the stoppages. He did a similar role against Lenny Hayes in last year’s Grand Final. Bartel has had a quieter year, however his form has really picked up in the finals. He was one of Geelong’s best against St.Kilda, and was also brilliant against Fremantle. Swan on the other hand is the Brownlow favourite and played one of the all-time classic finals games against the Bulldogs with 30 disposals and three goals.

Sharrod Wellingham v Gary Ablett - Assuming Wellingham plays, he will be given responsibility for Ablett. If Wellingham does not pass his fitness test, then Ben Johnson will probably be asked to do this role, with Heath Shaw moving onto Stokes and Toovey onto Varcoe. As I said, Ablett has been moved back into a permanent midfield role in the finals series, and this is where he will start again on Friday night. He has taken his game to a new level in the finals and his confidence is right up. Ablett is truly becoming one of the greatest finals players, so Collingwood will have its hands full with him. However, it will not implement a tight tag. The Magpies will look to use Ablett’s opponent very attackingly, and simply look to zone off him when he has possession.

Brent Macaffer v Paul Chapman - Macaffer played a forward tag on Enright in round 19, however I think he should play the shut down role on Chapman this week. Chapman is a superstar of the game and physically way too big for any other Collingwood midfielder. Macaffer’s ability to play forward, centre or back makes him the ideal match-up, and he is also quite strong in his upper-body. I truly think Chapman is the most damaging player in the league, and no doubt Collingwood will be putting a lot of attention into him.

Scott Pendlebury v Cameron Ling - Ling will most likely start with this match-up as he did in round 19. He limited Pendlebury to 24 disposals, however I thought the Magpie probably had the better of the tussle in the end. I have no doubt that Ling is not quite as fit as he was last year, so it is unlikely he’ll be asked to play on Didak or Swan. Pendlebury is a better match-up speed wise for Ling. Like Swan, Pendlebury rotates very heavily, so I think we’ll see Ling push forward quite a lot and perhaps play on Maxwell or Shaw as well.

Dale Thomas v James Kelly - Dale Thomas has been Collingwood’s X factor this year, and was slightly unlucky not to come into All Australian contention. Towards the end of the season, Thomas has attracted a tag, which is a credit to his impressive form. On the other hand, I think Kelly is one of the most underrated Geelong players. He goes in and wins the hard ball, can do jobs for his coach, has nice skills and is also a good wet weather player. I can see Thompson electing to use Kelly slightly defensively on Thomas and look to out-muscle him around the stoppages.

Dayne Beams v Joel Corey - Corey is slowly working himself back into form, however his injuries this year have cost him a bit of speed and fitness. Geelong is no doubt missing his hard running through the middle. Beams is likely to go head to head against Corey. Beams has a terrific record against Geelong in 2010, kicking seven goals in the two games they have played. No doubt Geelong will be mindful of his presence.

Collingwood Forward Line
Travis Cloke v Harry Taylor - This battle is always an enthralling one, and honours are pretty even between these two in previous encounters. Like Mooney, much rests on Cloke’s accuracy in front of goal. Nonetheless, Cloke will have taken a lot from Riewoldt’s game in the qualifying final, where he absolutely ran Taylor off his legs. Cloke has a similarly high work-rate and is going to work high up the ground. It will be interesting to see if Taylor follows. I think at times on Riewoldt, he should’ve simply allowed him to work up the ground, and put more focus onto him inside 50.

Chris Dawes v Matthew Scarlett - Realistically, Scarlett is going to win this battle against a more inexperienced opponent. Dawes needs to use his strength. He is taller and heavier than Scarlett. However, Scarlett is equally as strong in a one of one battle. If Scarlett is getting on top, then Dawes has to at least ensure he is providing crumbs to his small forwards, and ensuring his defensive pressure on Scarlett is top notch.

Alan Didak v Corey Enright - Didak ran completely free against Geelong in round 19, and I can’t see the Cats allowing this to happen again. They have tried to use Enright quite offensively all year, however I think it would be wise to use Enright in a stopping role on Didak. If Didak picks up 35 disposals again, I think the Magpies will win. Again, this would be a battle between two All Australian players.

Leon Davis v Josh Hunt - Davis’ form did not pick up against the Western Bulldogs, and he is still yet to shake his finals voodoo. Nevertheless, Josh Hunt is another who is under a bit of pressure after he was totally beaten by Milne a fortnight ago. I highly doubt Davis’ fitness is at its peak, however he must take a leaf out of Milne’s book and run Hunt high up the ground and work back hard towards goal. Davis also has a massive role in terms of his forward pressure and tackling. It will be crucial against Geelong.

Leigh Brown v Tom Longergan - Jolly is going to ruck 80% of the game, leaving Brown to do a lot of work up forward. Lonergan is the man likely to get this match-up when this happens. I think Leigh Brown is one of Collingwood’s most important players on Friday night as he is a real enforcer and needs to set the tempo for his teammates around him.

Player of Interest: David Wojcinski
Wojcinski didn’t play in the round 19 clash, and looms as Geelong’s real X factor this weekend. His run out of defence was simply amazing against Fremantle, and I actually thought he was one of the most damaging players on the ground.

Fremantle set up a similar forward press as Collingwood, so it will hearten Geelong that they were able to penetrate it with such ease. Wojcinski was one of the main reasons why. He is probably quicker than anyone on Collingwood’s list, so I think a tactic for the Magpies will be to try and make him accountable. Perhaps Sidebottom will move onto him and try to get a few goals to force him to play more defensive. Either way, Wojcinski cannot be allowed to run off half back with the same freedom he did against the Dockers.

The Ruck
Geelong took great offence at comments made by Jolly after the Round 19 clash, where Jolly remarked that Hawkins was only a part-time ruckman and he looked to really dominate him. Ottens will take major responsibility for Jolly. Both sides use shorter ruckmen in Leigh Brown and Hawkins to chip in. Jolly and Ottens will look to push forward and kick goals as well, so it will be an interesting battle as both ruckmen will take big risks to do this.

No doubt Jolly will look to intimidate Hawkins again. Jolly is perhaps fitter than Ottens, so will be able to ruck for longer periods. In previous preliminary finals, Geelong has always taken huge ascendency from the ruck, with Ottens the dominant figure. This year, Collingwood may actually have the edge. It is a massive plus for Collingwood to have this base covered in this year’s finals series. It is a huge reason why they are a genuine contender.

The Wrap Up
The forecast for Friday night is for a few showers and a bit of wind, but nothing too dramatic. If it is wet, I think it would suit Geelong given their terrific comeback in the rain against St.Kilda. Wind however may suit Collingwood as it will cause more turnovers.

What a game this proves to be. On the one hand, Geelong is on the verge of becoming one of the greatest sides of all time. Making four Grand Finals in a row will cement its place in history. On the other hand, Collingwood is very much the heir-apparent to the Cats. They have a younger list, and have approached their football very similarly to the Geelong side of 2007. If they can win this game, they may be on the verge of something quite special.

I’m so ridiculously nervous. I simply cannot wait for Friday night. I’m expecting an absolute heart-stopper.

A Grand Final berth is on the line. It will be unfair for the loser, as both these sides have clearly been the best in the competition all year. However, that’s football and the stakes couldn’t be higher.

I have to tip a bit with my heart this week.

Collingwood by 5 points.

By David Natoli
Aka DaVe86