THERE are fewer than five weeks – 33 days, to be exact – until the post-season player movement period officially opens.
Unofficially, players, agents and clubs have been manoeuvring through conversations and offers for months.
KEY DATES When do the AFL Free Agency and Trade Periods kick off?
But just how much is on the table for this year's trade targets – both contracted and uncontracted?
In 2019, the average player wage was more than $401,000 for players who featured at AFL level. While that figure reduced by roughly 29 per cent in 2020, it is expected to level out heading into 2021.
Luring a target out of his original home typically forces the new club to pay overs, while destination clubs are often happy to pay even more for free agents knowing they won't have to part with a draft pick.
With Gold Coast's concession (now with Geelong) and a host of first-round compensations predicted, this year's second round could start around pick No.24-25.
INDICATIVE DRAFT ORDER Your club's picks as they stand
Clubs are awaiting finalisation on list spots and the salary cap for next season, but it hasn't stopped a flurry of offers being thrown about.
Here's how the industry – with input from various list managers, recruiters and player agents – sees this year's shopping list.
Not named are those players poised to re-sign, including Tom Hawkins and Brandan Parfitt (Geelong), Andy McGrath and Jordan Ridley (Essendon) and Jed Anderson (North Melbourne).
The out-of-contract stars
JORDAN DE GOEY (COLL)
Draft picks: Two mid-to-late first-round picks
Value on open market: $850,000-950,000
De Goey has said it's his desire to remain with the Pies but rivals will continue to ask the question until he officially inks a new contract. The proven match-winner will start next season as a 25-year-old and is still two seasons off free agency. These type of players don't become available all too often.
DARCY MOORE (COLL)
Draft picks: Two mid-to-late first-round picks
Value on open market: $800,000-900,000
All signs point to Moore re-signing with the Pies and to this point, all discussions are heading in the right direction. Fresh off his maiden AFL All-Australian blazer, Moore would be the most valuable intercepting defender in the game.
ADAM SAAD (ESS)
Draft picks: End of first-round / early second-round pick
Value on open market: $550,000-650,000 per season
Will spend the next week with family weighing up whether to accept a four-year offer from the Bombers or to look elsewhere. North Melbourne and Carlton are the two leading contenders of a number of clubs who have shown interest. The 26-year-old, who has spent three seasons at the Bombers after crossing from Gold Coast, has sought further clarity on his role under new coach Ben Rutten.
BEN BROWN (NM)
Draft picks: Second-round pick
Value on open market: $550,000-650,000 per season
Rival clubs raised their eyebrows this week at North Melbourne's decision to place Brown on the table publicly. Others believe it will cost the Roos leverage at the bargaining table because he simply can't return to Arden Street. His agent Adam Ramanauskas told RSN on Friday it was a "staggering" call for a player who kicked more goals than any other across 2017-2019. The 27-year-old will have a number of interested parties, however, expect suitors to throw themselves into the Brown market once Joe Daniher and Jeremy Cameron make their calls. The Roos will need to rely on a bidding war to receive adequate compensation.
WHO'S MOVING? All the latest trade and contract news
JYE CALDWELL (GWS)
Draft picks: Late first-round / early second-round pick
Value on open market: $400,000-500,000 per season
Will soon return to Sydney where he will make a call on his future between the Giants and a number of clubs, headlined by St Kilda with a long-term offer. Caldwell turns 20 next week and has played 11 games across two seasons after being taken at No.11 in the star-studded 2018 NAB AFL Draft. The usual going rate for a gun third-year midfielder is upwards of $350,000 but rivals may need to offer a touch more to get him out.
JOSH DAICOS (COLLINGWOOD)
Draft picks: Early-to-mid second-round pick
Value on open market: $400,000-500,000 per season
Still most likely to stay at the Pies on a multi-year deal but will have to knock back bigger offers in order to do so. The 21-year-old has enjoyed a breakout 2020 campaign, playing all but one game and proven himself as one of the best kicks inside 50 in the competition.
TOBY NANKERVIS (RICH)
Draft picks: Early-to-mid second-round pick
Value on open market: $450,000-550,000 per season
The whole situation around Nankervis changed the moment Tigers premiership ruck partner Ivan Soldo ruptured his ACL, ruling him out of the entire 2021 season. Before that point, rivals had believed the 26-year-old Nankervis was gettable with Soldo poised to pass him as the Tigers' No.1 big man. Will still have offers to leave but the Tigers can't afford to lose him. Crossed to the Tigers for pick 46 at the end of 2016 but now has two flags to his name.
NATHAN BROAD (RICH)
Draft picks: Mid-to-late second-round pick
Value on open market: $400,000-500,000
A latecomer to the AFL, the 27-year-old looks headed for a new home to cash in on the payday he missed out on early in his career. And who can blame him? The dual premiership defender now has 67 games under his belt but has been overlooked for selection in recent weeks. Would suit a developing club like Gold Coast looking for a calm head in defence. The Suns are one of several clubs who have interest.
JACKSON HATELY (GWS)
Draft picks: Mid-to-late second round pick
Value on open market: $300,000-400,000 per season
Has played 13 games in his two seasons at the Giants after being taken at pick No.14 in the 2018 NAB AFL Draft. The South Australian has interest from the Crows to return home, but don't expect them to pay through the roof for a player entering his third season.
XAVIER O'HALLORAN (GWS)
Draft picks: Mid-to-late second round pick
Value on open market: $250,000-350,000 per season
Broke through for two games this year in his second AFL season but has been a victim of the Giants' abundance of midfield depth. Pick 22 in the 2018 NAB AFL Draft, O'Halloran will have suitors in his home state of Victoria should he wish to return. Entering his third season, it's hard to expect he will get much over the AFL average.
JACK LONIE (STK)
Draft picks: Late second-round / early third-round pick
Value on open market: $250,000-350,000 per season
Could Lonie be this year's Dan Butler? Has been in and out of the Saints' line-up this year and is under a cloud for the first final with a knee injury. Last year's Butler acquisition shows how valuable a small forward can be to a new club. If Lonie can't land a new deal at the Saints he will have suitors elsewhere.
NAKIA COCKATOO (GEEL)
Draft picks: Third-round pick
Value on open market: $250,000-350,000
Destined to land in Brisbane and follow the lead of former teammate Lincoln McCarthy who turned his body around up north. The Lions have held an interest in the explosive Cockatoo for some time and will back their medical team to get him on the park after two games in three seasons. Like the deal for McCarthy, the Cats won't dig their heels in at the trade table.
Free agents
JEREMY CAMERON (GWS)
Draft picks: First-round compensation pick
Value on open market: $950,000-1.1m per season
Still most likely to stay with the Giants but was quoted in July saying he'd re-sign soon after the contract freeze lifted and he's still yet to put pen to paper. Geelong is his strongest suitor and the Cats are awaiting an answer from Cameron before they progress elsewhere. One of the highest-paid players in the game in 2020, the 2019 Coleman medallist had a frustrating season. Still, for a player at 27 and with his proven goalscoring history, his value remains strong.
ZAC WILLIAMS (GWS)
Draft picks: First-round compensation pick
Value on open market: $800,000-900,000 per season
Locked in on a long-term deal at Carlton believed to be upwards of $800,000 per season after the Blues edged out North Melbourne for his services. It will net the Giants a first-round compensation pick that will fall after their first selection at pick eight (a selection that's in the possession of the Crows after a trade last year).
JACK VINEY (MELB)
Draft picks: First-round compensation pick
Value on open market: $700,000-800,000 per season
Viney's agent Tom Petroro said last week his client has a decision to make on his future. Still a chance the 26-year-old stays at Melbourne with negotiations ongoing after the Demons' opening offer was deemed underwhelming for a former captain who this week finished third in the best and fairest. Viney comes off a strong contract signed in 2016 and while his 2018 was hampered by injury, he has since put together two impressive seasons. Now that Jack Graham has told Carlton he's staying at Richmond, do the Blues go all-in on Viney and join Geelong as one of several interested parties?
JOE DANIHER (ESS)
Draft picks: First-round / end-of-first-round compensation pick
Value on open market: $700,000-800,000 per season
Looms as the most fascinating contract of all restricted free agents. Provided there's several suitors, Daniher will have no problems in securing a sizeable contract. But it's the length of term that will concern some given his body history and the fact he's played 15 games in three seasons. As reported by AFL.com.au this week, Essendon is prepared to offer up to four years. But if a rival – such as Brisbane, Sydney or Geelong – comes with something similar and the Bombers are only headed for an end-of-first-round compensation, do they match the bid and force a trade?
BRAD CROUCH (ADELAIDE)
Draft picks: First-round / end-of-first-round compensation pick
Value on open market: $650,000-750,000 per season
The Victorian is searching for a five-year contract and admitted this week he doesn't have a contract offer from the Crows. He looks to be out the door but now it's about finding a club willing to offer enough that will secure Adelaide a first-round compensation pick (would fall at pick No.2). Five years at more than $700,000 would likely be enough and it would avoid the Crows matching and forcing a trade. Like all restricted free agents, suitors would be willing to pay more for the contract to avoid a trade, however the interesting watch on Crouch will be the length of term, given his history of soft tissue injuries. Geelong has interest and while Port Adelaide have been linked, it's unlikely they'll offer five years.
AIDAN CORR (GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY)
Draft picks: Second-round / end-of-second-round compensation pick
Value on open market: $400,000-500,000
Headed for North Melbourne after indicating to the Giants earlier this month of his wish to return to Victoria. A proven first-choice defender of his quality moving clubs would likely command a wage above the AFL average. Length of term will determine where the Giants' compensation pick falls.
RORY ATKINS (ADEL)
Draft picks: End-of-second-round / third-round compensation pick
Value on open market: $350,000-450,000
All but certain to be at Gold Coast next year on a four-year deal estimated at around $400,000. Free agency compensation will be a handy addition to Adelaide's rebuild for a player that was often overlooked this season.
ISAAC SMITH (HAW)
Draft picks: Third-round compensation pick or nothing
Value on open market: $350,000-400,000
Ideally searching for a two-year contract and it could still come at Hawthorn. But Smith admitted on RSN radio this week he wasn't 100 per cent sure what his future held. Carlton and Melbourne are among the parties having a look at the triple premiership wingman who turns 32 in December but is only 10 years into his career.
And those contracted…
ORAZIO FANTASIA (ESS)
Draft picks: Early-to-mid second-round pick
Value on open market: $450,000-550,000
Has undergone independent medical testing that will give Adelaide and Port Adelaide greater clarity on what's been holding him back in 2020. The speedy forward managed only five games this season due to constant soft tissue setbacks. His value has dropped from 12 months ago when he was seeking more than $600,000 to depart but is again weighing up his future. The bargaining power for Essendon will have also lowered given he now only has one year left on a contract and was been unable to reach his best this year.
SHAUN HIGGINS (NM)
Draft picks: Second-round pick
Value on open market: $400,000-500,000
Told to look elsewhere earlier this month if he wanted to secure his future on a two-year deal. The smooth-moving midfielder, who starts next year at 33, still has one year to run on his contract at the Roos but will weigh up a move elsewhere with Geelong keen and St Kilda registering its interest. His deal for next season at the Roos would be well in excess of $400,000 but another club may smooth it out over a second year to offer career security. It may also see the Roos pay a portion to ensure an adequate trade return.
JARED POLEC (NM)
Draft picks: Second or third-round pick
Value on open market: $500,000-600,000
Still has three years and upwards of $1.6 million left on a front-ended contract he signed when crossing from Port Adelaide at the end of 2017. Finished seventh in last year's best and fairest but fell out of favour this season and was dropped twice. Provided they're looked after with a reasonable pick, the Roos would be willing to entertain offers for the 27-year-old wingman and pay some of his wage for next season. Now it's about finding the right suitor.
TOM McDONALD (MELB)
Draft picks: Late second-round pick
Value on open market: $450,000-550,000
Overlooked late in the season with the Demons' finals hopes hanging by a thread, McDonald may need to look elsewhere to progress his AFL career. Has battled injuries and form since signing a four-year extension to 2022 early in his breakout 2018 campaign that netted 53 goals. With two years to run on his current deal, a potential suitor could look to smooth his contract out over three or four years to fit his existing deal into their cap.
PETER WRIGHT (GC)
Draft picks: Third-round pick
Value on open market: $350,000-450,000
The 24-year-old has two years left on a healthy contract he signed in early 2019. Failed to feature at AFL level this season season and was emergency more than 10 times, watching Ben King rush by him in the pecking order and Sam Day get picked as the preferred forward/ruck option. The Suns will entertain offers for their 203cm tall, but suitors will only emerge once Jeremy Cameron, Joe Daniher and Ben Brown have their futures sorted.
ALEX WITHERDEN (BL)
Draft picks: Second-round pick
Value on open market: $300,000-400,000
Missed just two games across 2018-2019 but has been reduced to six matches this campaign with youngster Brandon Starcevich and recruits Grant Birchall and Callum Ah Chee picked ahead of him. Has two years to run on his current deal, and while the Lions won't want to lose him, Victorian clubs are already lining up for the 22-year-old who has proven himself as an astute ball user out of the back half.
BRAYDON PREUSS (MELB)
Draft picks: Early third-round pick
Value on open market: $300,000-400,000
Is it time for Preuss to look for his third club? Arrived at Melbourne on a four-year deal at the end of 2018 with the hope of playing in tandem with Max Gawn. That happened just once this season, with Preuss playing two other matches – including a win over Brodie Grundy – in Gawn's absence. It will be hard for the Demons to stand in his way given they've also brought in No.3 pick Luke Jackson since Preuss' arrival. Has already gained interest from Sydney and Greater Western Sydney.
CONNOR BLAKELY (FREM)
Draft picks: Late second-round / early third-round pick
Value on open market: $350,000-450,000
Will be open to a trade if suitors emerge. However, expect things to only ramp up closer to Trade Period when other inside midfielders including Brad Crouch and Jack Viney settle on decisions. Blakely, who starts next year at 24, signed a contract until 2022 just three weeks before Ross Lyon was sacked last season. Limited to five games this year under new coach Justin Longmuir.
WILL BRODIE (GC)
Draft picks: Late third-round pick
Value on open market: $250,000-350,000
Both Brodie and Gold Coast are both on the same page that a fresh start would be the best result. Now it's about finding a suitor that will take on his current deal that has two years to run. Like a few other contracted players, he will need to wait for some of the high-profile midfield free agents to make their calls. Essendon is crying out for a big-bodied midfielder, and with Ollie Wines now to stay at Port Adelaide, attention could turn to Brodie.
CHARLIE CONSTABLE (GEEL)
Draft picks: Third-round pick
Value on open market: $250,000-350,000
Looking for a new home but will need to see where the cards fall elsewhere. After seven games last year, the 21-year-old played just two this year with the Cats committing to Brandan Parfitt and Cam Guthrie as inside midfielders to partner Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood. With the Cats considering Shaun Higgins, a number of free agents and having last year's first-round pick Cooper Stephens up their sleeve, it's time for Constable to seek greater opportunities.
