WHERE AND WHEN: Etihad Stadium, Saturday, June 9, 7.40pm
LAST TIME: Essendon 15.10 (100) d Sydney Swans 14.15 (99) round 20, 2011 at Etihad Stadium
TV, RADIO AND BETTING: Click here for broadcast guide and odds
It's only round 11, but this looms as an important game for both clubs and their respective top-four hopes. If James Hird's side can bounce back from a shocking loss to Melbourne and beat the Swans, it would give the Bombers a two-game gap on the Swans on the ladder. But if the Swans can manage to string two wins in a row they would jump ahead of the Bombers on the table and sit comfortably in the top echelon of contenders. The Swans are ranked the best defensive side in the competition and Essendon comes in second, making it likely to be a tight contest.
THE FOUR POINTS
ESSENDON
1. Despite Essendon's disappointing loss to Melbourne last week, the Bombers have one key thing on their side in their meeting against the Swans: Etihad Stadium. The Bombers have been near unbeatable at the venue in the last year and a half, winning 12 for their last 13 games at the venue. So far this year, they have won all four of their games at Etihad Stadium.
2. How will Essendon stop the Swans' rampant midfield? In last week's win over the Western Bulldogs, Jude Bolton (41 disposals), Dan Hannebery (35), Kieren Jack (34) and Josh Kennedy (28) were irrepressible. On occasions this year the Bombers have let run-with specialist Heath Hocking roam free, but he - and maybe Ben Howlett - will need to play shutdown roles for the Bombers.
3. Essendon's forward line has looked potent throughout the season and is hitting the scoreboard more than it has for several seasons, but even Hocking admitted this week that inaccuracy had been very costly last week when it kicked six goals and 16 behinds. It needs to sharpen up in this area against the Swans. No doubt the roof at Etihad will help.
4. Essendon might have won the contested possession tally against the Demons (by three), but they were smashed in the uncontested possession count and in clearances. The Demons had 28 more uncontested disposals and won 15 more clearances than the Bombers, who pride themselves at the stoppages. Against the Swans, a team renowned for its strength at the clearances, the Bombers will need to lift their game.
SYDNEY SWANS
1. Can the Swans finally produce some decent football in Melbourne? They have shown they can compete in Sydney, Adelaide and even in Launceston. But Melbourne has been a disaster, suffering poor defeats to Richmond and St Kilda on the road. They need to show they can perform in Melbourne, particularly if they are to have any impact in the finals.
2. John Longmire's side has solved some of its goal kicking troubles from last season so far, sharing the load nicely. Lewis Jetta continued his remarkable season in front of goal with four against the Bulldogs, taking him to 24 for the year. Trent Dennis-Lane, Kieren Jack, Sam Reid and Lewis Roberts-Thomson also kicked multiples. They need more of the same against the Bombers.
3. The Swans' depth is being severely tested nearing the midway point of the season. Adam Goodes is still sidelined, while Shane Mumford finally played just his third game of the season last week. But with Luke Parker (collarbone) and Ben McGlynn (suspended) now out, joining Gary Rohan (leg), their stocks are getting a little thin.
4. Essendon and the Swans are currently third and fourth in the AFL for contested possessions. The latter is also in the top three in tackles (1st) and clearances (3rd), but the Bombers are only mid-table so far. If the Swans can maintain their high level in those areas, they may just break their Melbourne drought.
AFL.com.au prediction: Sydney Swans by 4 points
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL
