The views in this article are those of the author and not those of the AFL or its clubs
WITH five rounds remaining, pressure is mounting on the sides in the race to the finals - especially those trying to sneak into the lower rungs of the eight. We take a look at the contenders and their chances.
Collingwood: 1st - Played 17, won 16, lost one. Percentage 175.81
To come: Port Adelaide (AAMI Stadium), St Kilda (Etihad Stadium) Brisbane Lions (MCG), Fremantle (Patersons Stadium), Geelong (MCG)
It's hard to see the Magpies being tipped out of top spot, even though they have two interstate trips and matches against the surging Saints and perennial contenders Geelong. Collingwood's massive percentage means the second-placed Cats will have to win two more matches than the Pies to top the ladder.
Geelong: 2nd - Played 18, won 16, lost two. Percentage 150.97
To come: Gold Coast (Skilled Stadium), Adelaide (AAMI Stadium), Bye, Sydney Swans (Skilled Stadium) Collingwood (MGC)
With two matches at their home fortress and a trip to AAMI Stadium to face the collapsing Crows, the only challenge for the Cats would appear to be the round 24 blockbuster against Collingwood. They will almost certainly finish in second place.
Hawthorn: 3rd - Played 17, won 13, lost four. Percentage 136.70
To come: North Melbourne (Aurora Stadium), Port Adelaide (MCG), Carlton (Etihad Stadium), Western Bulldogs (MCG), Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium)
A reasonably favourable draw is likely to see the Hawks maintain the double chance, but the clash against Carlton is a tough assignment. Hawthorn will need to keep winning to stave off a run from fifth-placed West Coast.
Carlton: 4th - Played 18, won 12, lost five, drawn one. Percentage 132.38
To come: Melbourne (MCG), Fremantle (Patersons Stadium), Hawthorn (Etihad Stadium), Bye, St Kilda (MCG)
The round 22 Friday night assignment against Hawthorn shapes as a critical match for the Blues' chances of a top-four finish. Fremantle at Patersons Stadium and St Kilda in round 24, with Carlton coming off the bye, are also danger games. The Eagles are looming.
West Coast: 5th - Played 17, won 12, lost five. Percentage 118.82
To come: Richmond (Patersons Stadium), Melbourne (Etihad Stadium), Essendon (Patersons Stadium), Brisbane Lions (Gabba), Adelaide (Patersons Stadium)
The Eagles just keep on producing, and their draw could easily see five more wins, which would guarantee a double chance. But given that fourth place would almost certainly mean a trip to Melbourne to face the Magpies, finishing fifth and hosting a home final in week one wouldn't be a disaster.
Sydney Swans: 6th - Played 17, won nine, lost seven, drawn one. Percentage 109.58
To come: Essendon (Etihad Stadium), Richmond (MCG), St Kilda (ANZ Stadium), Geelong (Skilled Stadium), Brisbane Lions (SCG)
A win and 9 per cent ahead of ninth-placed Essendon, the clash with the Bombers will go a long way to deciding if the Swans will play finals. St Kilda at ANZ Stadium and Geelong at Skilled Stadium are also tough asks. The Swans will do extremely well to hold onto fifth or sixth and a home final.
St Kilda: 7th - Played 17, won nine, lost seven, drawn one. Percentage 109.41
To come: Fremantle (Etihad Stadium) Collingwood (Etihad Stadium), Sydney Swans (ANZ Stadium), North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium), Carlton (MCG)
With four of the sides contending for spots in the lower half of the eight having played out draws this season - Swans, St Kilda, Essendon and Melbourne - percentage may decide the final composition of the eight. With three matches against teams around the same mark, the Saints' future is entirely in their own hands.
Fremantle: 8th - Played 17, won nine, lost eight. Percentage 95.53
To come: St Kilda (Etihad Stadium), Carlton (Patersons Stadium), North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium), Collingwood (Patersons Stadium), Western Bulldogs (Etihad Stadium)
A wobbly Fremantle still has to face Collingwood, Hawthorn and Carlton, all at home, and St Kilda. It's a tough draw, with Freo likely to have to win at least one of those matches against teams above them on the ladder to ensure a top-eight finish.
Essendon: 9th - Played 18, won eight, lost nine, drawn one. Percentage 100.00
To come: Sydney Swans (Etihad Stadium), Western Bulldogs (Etihad Stadium), West Coast (Patersons Stadium), Port Adelaide (Etihad Stadium), Bye
The injury-hit Bombers' percentage took a big hit in the loss to Collingwood, and that may prove the difference between playing finals or missing out. Three wins might be enough, four would almost certainly be sufficient, but it's a tough task. And the bye in round 24 doesn't help.
North Melbourne: 10th - Played 18, won eight, lost 10. Percentage 99.71
To come: Hawthorn (Aurora Stadium), Bye, Fremantle (Etihad Stadium), St Kilda (Etihad Stadium), Richmond (Etihad Stadium)
It's a very demanding end to the season for the Kangaroos, who have to face three teams placed higher on the ladder. The likelihood of having to win at least three of their final four matches to make the eight means they will struggle.
Melbourne: 11th - Played 17, won seven, lost nine, drawn one. Percentage 88.82
To come: Carlton (MCG), West Coast (Etihad Stadium), Richmond (MCG), Gold Coast (MCG), Port Adelaide (AAMI Stadium)
The Demons are in turmoil on and off the field, but somehow still may play finals. Their fate will be decided in two tough weeks starting with the "bruise-free" return stoush against Carlton. Three likely wins at the end of the season simply won't be enough, so Melbourne will have to sneak at least one victory against more highly favoured opponents.
Western Bulldogs: 12th - Played 18, won seven, lost 11. Percentage 93.89
To come: Bye, Essendon (Etihad Stadium), Port Adelaide (AAMI Stadium), Hawthorn (MCG), Fremantle (Etihad Stadium)
Add the dreaded 'mathematically-possible' tag to the Bulldogs' chances. Realistically, even four wins would be unlikely to drag them into the eight, given their poor percentage. The roughest of roughies.
The views in this article are those of the author and not those of the AFL or its clubs
