Warnie's Fantasy draft rankings by position

DRAFTING is open for AFL Fantasy leagues from Thursday morning and for coaches keen to get the edge over their opponents, they’ll spend some time setting their pre-Draft rankings.

I like to work off positional rankings. As each Draft takes place, you’ll find yourself strategising as to which line you should take your next pick from based on how your squad, and other coaches’, is shaping up.

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We’re currently compiling our rankings for a number of upcoming drafts as well as the annual Draft Kit which will be available later this month on AFL.com.au. Projecting season averages based on past performances, new roles and personnel changes coupled with durability and age help make decisions on where I’ll be happy to take players.

It’s a guessing game, but being prepared will help you when you’re on the clock and under Draft day stress.

As information flows through – such as injuries and our favourite pre-season quotes of "more midfield time" - we adjust our ranks.

Note: Due to 2020 games played with shorter quarters, the averages for players below have been adjusted to reflect full length games.

DEFENDERS

Expect Jake Lloyd and Lachie Whitfield to be first round picks but from there, you should be able to get serviceable defenders a little later in the draft. Last season, 27 of this year’s players with DEF status averaged more than 80. That’s 10 more than the forwards, so you may prioritise grabbing a forward over a defender in those first few rounds.

Zac Williams has a big bump based on his 2020 average with the mooted midfield time he’ll get at the Blues.

In the last week or so, James Harmes has seen his Fantasy stocks rise due to the revelation that he’s training with the midfield group because his season in defence "didn’t really work". Harmes averaged 94 the previous season when he was primarily a midfielder.

MIDFIELDERS

The most prolific scorers in Fantasy are the midfielders. They’re the ones that will rack up plenty of touches and in turn, rack up the best scores. A whopping 27 midfielders averaged 100 or more last year meaning that your captain is usually going to be the first midfielder you pick.

Your first or second solution will hopefully be someone who has the capacity to average 110-plus.

For those playing Fantasy Classic, you’ll notice a range of players who last year returned averages well below their personal best. They may become value selections and worth bumping up your order. I believe the Giants will have a much better year and have ranked Tim Taranto and Stephen Coniglio around the group of midfielders I think will go at around 105.

Knowing that there were 51 players last season who averaged 90 or more, I’ll be keen to grab a skipper and fill my other lines before thinking too much about the midfielders… unless there’s a value pick that pops up in the mid-rounds I need to jump on.

RUCKS

Recently the No.1 selection based on ADP (average draft pick) is a ruckman. Brodie Grundy has been that man for the last couple of seasons but Max Gawn is likely to be at the top of the table this year.

The two best ruckmen in the game could have 10-point gap on the next best available ruck (possibly Reilly O’Brien) and should be taken in the first half of the first round. I’m predicting the duo to have ADPs of one and two.

A strategy that has worked when drafting ruckmen is to take a punt on them. Meaning, if you didn’t get one of the big dogs early, you leave them until the late rounds. Based on projections, you could get an 85 averaging ruckman with one of your last picks as players like Toby Nankervis and Nic Naitanui can return those numbers, yet the defenders or forwards in the later rounds might be mid-70s at best.

FORWARDS

There is certainly a gap between the first couple of tiers of forwards and the rest. Scoring drops away dramatically outside of the top half-a-dozen players.

You can bank 100-plus averages from MID/FWDs in Steele Sidebottom, Josh Dunkley and Patrick Dangerfield. Even with time in the forward line, they’ve proven to be great scorers across their careers. They’ll be snapped up in the first two rounds with the next group, including Dustin Martin, not far behind.

While it’s possible, there is unlikely to be more than 10 forwards average more than 90. Last year it was eight.

RANKINGS SPREADSHEET Click here to download Warnie's excel sheet

Snagging some of those high-80s players will be a priority. There’s plenty of risk, but those MID/FWDs that are likely to have a run on the ball will be hot property. Jye Caldwell should get that opportunity at the Bombers as may Jaidyn Stephenson at the Roos.

The player who took the biggest hit in my rankings was Tom Hawkins. After averaging a career-high 89, the inclusion of gun key forward Jeremy Cameron has me scratching my head over what his output will be. I’ve basically ranked him at 25 (he was the ninth highest averaging forward last year) as I know someone else will grab him before I will.

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