SUMMARY
Hawthorn's path towards a record-equalling fourth premiership in a row became significantly tougher the moment Isaac Smith missed his after-the-siren shot in the epic two-point qualifying final loss to Geelong last Friday night. Like last season, the Hawks now have to win three cut-throat finals to clinch the flag, starting with a dangerous semi-final assignment against the Western Bulldogs at the MCG. The Dogs will be brimming with confidence after dominating their elimination final clash with West Coast at Domain Stadium and could worry the reigning premiers if they bring the same intensity around the ball.
Jake Stringer must fire for the Dogs to be a chance against Hawthorn. Picture: AFL Photos
WHERE AND WHEN: MCG, Friday, September 16, 7.50pm AEST
TV AND RADIO: Click here for broadcast guide
WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR
Round three: Hawthorn 14.9 (93) d Western Bulldogs 13.12 (90) at Etihad Stadium
The Bulldogs dominated possession and contested ball but couldn't put the Hawks away after leading by 19 points at the final change. James Sicily booted all three of his goals in the last quarter to help clinch an epic win.
LAST FIVE TIMES
R3, 2016, Hawthorn 14.9 (93) d Western Bulldogs 13.12 (90) at Etihad Stadium
R3, 2015, Hawthorn 19.13 (127) d Western Bulldogs 8.9 (57) at Aurora Stadium
R19, 2014, Hawthorn 16.11 (107) d Western Bulldogs 6.9 (45) at Aurora Stadium
R17, 2013, Hawthorn 13.17 (95) d Western Bulldogs 11.10 (76) at Aurora Stadium
R16, 2012, Hawthorn 17.14 (116) d Western Bulldogs 6.8 (44) at Etihad Stadium
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
Hawthorn
1. The Hawks will want to get the ball out into space, and with their elite kicking skills, use the full width of the MCG to stretch the Bulldogs' defence.
2. Jordan Lewis is one of the better 'third men-up' at ruck contests. Look for him to belt the ball clear from congestion at stoppages.
3. The Hawks probably won't tag Marcus Bontempelli but Liam Shiels will have him on a tight leash at stoppages. The Dogs star can also expect a physical assault from Hawthorn's veterans.
Western Bulldogs
1. Expect the Bulldogs to try and gain the ascendency at the coalface which they did in the round three encounter between the sides. While Beveridge’s men went down by three points, the Dogs dominated contested ball and clearances.
2. Not one to routinely employ taggers, Luke Beveridge is likely to send Caleb Daniel or Liam Picken to go head-to-head with brilliant playmaker Sam Mitchell. Daniel held his own against the All Australian earlier in the season.
3. Renowned for their team defence, if the Dogs are winning the clearances, expect Easton Wood and co to push up strongly to try and strangle the Hawks' slick ball movement.
THE SIX POINTS
1. The Bulldogs dominated disposals (418-331), clearances (+16) and led by 19 points at three-quarter time in round three but lost by three points, with Hawks young gun James Sicily booting three final-term goals.
2. The Bulldogs only average 85 points per game this season – the lowest of any top eight side - but kicked 14.15 (99) in the elimination final against West Coast. Hawthorn averages 96 points per game.
3. Hawthorn has won the past eight meetings between the sides since the Bulldogs' last win in round three, 2010. Only two of those games though have been at the MCG, with three at Etihad Stadium and three at Aurora Stadium.
4. The Bulldogs are likely to command the contested possession battle on Friday night. They average nearly 149 per match, compared to the Hawks' 131.
5. The Hawks have never lost to the Bulldogs in four finals, the most recent being the 51-point 2008 qualifying final victory.
6. The Hawks will field eight players in the top 100 of the Schick AFL Player Ratings compared to the Dogs' six, but star pup Marcus Bontempelli (No.6 overall) will be the highest ranked player on the ground.
WHAT THE COACHES SAY
Alastair Clarkson: "Last year we went across to the west and got annihilated by West Coast (in a qualifying final) and we were able to bounce back strongly and we're just going to have to do the same sort of thing."
Luke Beveridge: "The way we see the Hawks play and set up these days is very different to when I was there two years ago. I know they'll be treating us with respect and working out ways to get under our skin, but I don't think it helps (being a former Hawthorn assistant) a great deal especially because they have changed so much."
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR …
Isaac Smith (Hawthorn): Don't be surprised if the resilient wingman comes out and plays a blinder to atone for missing the shot after the siren against Geelong. Smith almost hauled the Hawks over the line in the frantic final term and his running power when everyone else is nearing exhaustion could be telling late on Friday night.
Jake Stringer (Western Bulldogs): Stringer was one of the few Bulldogs not to have a good night against the Eagles, so the he'll be hoping he can finally return to his All Australian form. Ben Stratton looms as his opponent after the tight-checking Hawk kept ‘The Package’ quiet in round three.
PREDICTION: Hawthorn by eight points.
