The rebuild ladder: Where does your club sit?

WONDERING where your side sees itself in the premiership race? Look no further than the rebuild ladder. 

Collingwood's bulging salary cap forced its hand, but the Magpies' big investment in last year's NAB AFL Draft made it clear that the club was at the start of its rebuild.

After coming within a goal of the premiership in 2018, the Magpies' efforts to keep their list together and remain in the top-four hunt were scaled back as the club returned to the draft following a dramatic Trade Period. 

The rebuild ladder – as seen in the table below – highlights clearly when clubs have made the switch internally from premiership mode to list regeneration, with the Pies flicking the button at the end of 2020 when they took five picks inside the first two rounds of the draft.

So far three of those – Ollie Henry, Finlay Macrae and Caleb Poulter – have debuted this season and shown impressive signs, with Reef McInnes and Liam McMahon to come. 

Collingwood's haul from last year was only two fewer first and second-round picks than Hawthorn has used in total over the past six years, ranking it last in the competition for selections in that stage of the draft over the period from 2015-20.

Of course, the Hawks tried to extend their golden era beyond their three flags, trading out first-round picks to secure Tom Mitchell, Chad Wingard and Jaeger O'Meara. Only in the past two years have the Hawks hit the early part of the draft, with five choices in 2019-20.

The first and second rounds of the draft are clearly fertile ground for recruiters. There are no guarantees, but success rates drop dramatically on picks outside of that range, which on average has stretched to the first 41 picks over the past six drafts due to live father-son and Academy bidding, free agency compensation picks and priority selections. 

Greater Western Sydney sits at the top of the rebuild ladder with 20 first and second-round selections in the six-year period. The Giants' were consistent finals performers from 2016-19, however their numbers are skewed by highly-rated players departing the club across that timeframe and a revolving door of early picks.  

By tracking each club's draft investment over the period, you can stencil their thoughts on where they sit in a push to a flag.  

Brisbane's build was done over 2015-18, when the Lions used 15 first and second-round selections, but they have backed out of the draft with only four across the past two seasons. Adelaide's decision to aggressively rebuild after their 2017 Grand Final loss is evident in the list, too, with the Crows using four first and second-round picks between 2015-17, but then 12 since then, including an equal-competition high of five last season.

Opposing list philosophies also ring true in the rebuild ladder. 

Geelong, essentially, has defied football gravity and avoided a true rebuild and it sits third-last in the AFL for fewest picks in the first and second-rounds. The Cats have, however, grabbed five over the past two seasons, including trading a future first-round pick to move up the board and grab Max Holmes last year.

St Kilda's flipped approach in recent seasons to attack the trade and free agency market is also obvious, with the Saints tallying nine first and second-round picks across the past six off-seasons – the second least in the competition, while West Coast's big deal to land Tim Kelly and extend their flag ambitions after their 2018 success also sees them towards the bottom of the League. 

First and second-round picks taken