RICHMOND coach Damien Hardwick said last week a side could win the flag from outside the top four this year. And after three premierships from the past four years, Hardwick has every right to have faith in his men.
But if it is to challenge for an historic three-peat of triumphs, Richmond needs to quickly make up ground against the best sides in the competition.
The Tigers' defeat to West Coast on Sunday night came after three weeks on the road, back-to-back Perth trips and against an Eagles side that sensed a tiring opponent. Post-game, West Coast coach Adam Simpson credited the crowd as a factor, too.
But it was the Tigers' sixth loss from seven games against top-eight teams this season, itself a concern for a Richmond side that has become known for leaving its best for the best.
The Tigers have lost those six games at an average of 29 points, leaving them in eighth position on the ladder as they enter their round 14 bye and a win behind sixth-placed Sydney and seventh-placed West Coast, who have also played 13 games.
Richmond's only win against a top-eight side this season came over the Western Bulldogs in round seven, when they ended the Dogs' unbeaten start to the year with a 22-point victory at the MCG.
The defeats to contenders have been varied. Their round three loss to Sydney was a shocker, a 45-point drubbing at the MCG.
They were terrific on the road against Port Adelaide the following week and fell two points short of an in-form Power at Adelaide Oval, but they were well short of Melbourne in round six (they lost by 34 points) and then again in round eight against Geelong, when they were overrun in the second half and lost by 63 points.
Brisbane was also too strong in the second half in round 10, kicking eight goals to four after the main break, to run out 28-point winners.
Second halves have proved costly for the Tigers in their defeats this season, with Richmond outscored 45 goals to 25 after the main breaks in its losses at a rate of almost two goals to its one.
Hardwick remains optimistic that his side will time its run in the business end of the season, like it has the previous two campaigns. The alarm has not been sounded yet, nor Richmond written off. But to their contemporaries in the top half of the ladder, the Tigers are beatable again.
"We're in the hunt. We're like a lot of sides, spluttering along at the moment," Hardwick said after the four-point defeat to the Eagles.
"We get some players back, then we lose some players. There are sides, I wouldn't say having a charmed run, but they are coping well with their injuries.
"We probably haven't hit that run of form as yet. Hopefully it comes after bye."
Tigers v top eight
Opponent | Venue | Result | |
Rd 3 | Sydney | MCG | Loss - 45 points |
Rd 4 | Port Adelaide | Adelaide Oval | Loss - two points |
Rd 6 | Melbourne | MCG | Loss - 34 points |
Rd 7 | Western Bulldogs | MCG | Win - 22 points |
Rd 8 | Geelong | MCG | Loss - 63 points |
Rd 10 | Brisbane | Gabba | Loss - 28 points |
Rd 13 | West Coast | Optus Stadium | Loss - four points |