BRODIE Grundy has become a more dominant tap ruckman in 2021 than his previous All-Australian seasons, but the Pies are operating better without him at centre bounces this year.
Hard to fathom? Let the stats explain before jumping to a conclusion on how he has performed.
According to Champion Data, Grundy is winning more hitouts and feeding his midfielders more per ruck contest this year than his previous three campaigns which include Therabody All-Australian blazers in 2018 and 2019.
The 27-year-old, who is 17 games into a seven-year contract with the Pies, has won 56.6 per cent of ruck contests this season. It has him ranked behind only Max Gawn and Paddy Ryder in the entire competition.
His hitout-to-advantage rate has also risen, putting the ball to his teammate's advantage 33.4 per cent of ruck contests – up on previous years. But relative to the competition, it has him ranked 14th of all ruckmen. You can argue whether that says more about Grundy or his new-look midfield unit.
GRUNDY'S KEY STATS 2018-21
|
|
2018 Avg |
2019 Avg |
2020 Avg |
2021 avg |
|
Hitout Win % |
55.5% |
53.9% |
51.6% |
56.6% |
|
Hitout-to-advantage rate |
32.1% |
28.7% |
27.8% |
33.4% |
|
Hitout Sharked % |
16.5% |
16.6% |
15.4% |
19.4% |
|
Score Involvements |
6.3 |
6.4 |
4.1* |
4.8 |
|
Disposals |
20.2 |
21.3 |
18.0* |
19.4 |
|
Clearances |
5.3 |
6.1 |
4.0* |
4.0 |
|
Goals |
0.35 |
0.29 |
0.20* |
0.67 |
*2020 number multiplied by 1.25 to balance the 20% shorter quarters.
Three weeks into the season, then Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley dismissed a "furphy" suggesting hitouts should correlate to wins with Brodie Grundy's dominance again unrewarded. Grundy had just recorded 54 of the Pies' 64 hitouts against Brisbane's grand total of four with Tom Fullarton carrying the load as the Lions stole victory at Marvel Stadium.
Digging deeper, an assessment of Grundy's 2021 campaign, one that was heavily scrutinised in the early stages, can go one of two ways depending on how you interpret the findings.
With his overall hitout numbers rising, so too have Grundy's shark rates – where opposition teams take advantage of the ball from his hitouts.
His score involvements and disposals are both up on last year but down on 2018-19, whereas his goals per game are at a career-high despite his time forward all but identical compared to 2018-2020.
The Pies have won the centre clearances on 42.9 per cent of occasions in 2021 with Grundy in attendance and 45.5 per cent of time without him.
Damning on the two-time best and fairest? Potentially, but the numbers suggest the same in 2018 when he was lauded as one of the best two big men in the competition and the Pies went within a whisker of a flag.
CENTRE BOUNCE WIN RATE
|
|
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
|
CB Win % with Grundy |
43.1% |
42.2% |
45.5% |
42.9% |
|
CB Win % Without Grundy |
45.3% |
38.1% |
45.5% |
45.5% |
An All-Australian blazer will elude him this season as he deals with a different midfield set-up that has seen more of Jack Crisp, Josh Daicos replacing 2020 regulars Jamie Elliott and Adam Treloar. Scott Pendlebury has also rotated out at stages.
Incoming Collingwood president Mark Korda suggested earlier this year the Pies would've preferred they only sign Grundy to a four-year deal, but the market dictated he sign for seven to ward off rival interest (namely Adelaide).
So, when assessing the value of the deal in the early stages – is it fair to compare to his lofty heights of 2018 and 2019 when the Pies went within a kick and game respectively of the flag? Or compare to other ruckmen where he remains among the most revered in the game?
One thing is for certain – he will be a central figure to the Pies' midfield re-generation in coming years with even more spotlight to come on his impact leading the club's engine room.