IT IS a question that was asked on the night and countless times since: how did Brodie Grundy slip to pick No.18 in the 2012 NAB AFL Draft?
There is no straightforward answer, but the case does lie as something of cautionary tale, a little bit of a sign of the times and also an insight into the minds of recruiters.
Grundy was seen as a likely top-five selection right throughout his draft season and even before then, having performed at under-18 level as a bottom-ager the previous year.
But on draft night he was passed over until the Magpies' pick 18 – the first of three straight selections the club held that year.
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"The rich getting richer" was one rival recruiter's take that evening on Grundy getting to the biggest club in the land.
But why did it happen, and how? It comes down to this, according to one long-time recruiter.
"You have to look at the rucks in a draft completely different to anyone else. They can generally only play one position, and If you don't quite need one then you won't take one," the scout said this week as Grundy, an All Australian this year, prepares to spearhead Collingwood in its Grand Final clash with West Coast.
Each club had different reasons in not picking Grundy, though.
The Giants' decision not to take him is the most obvious miss given they held five of the first 14 picks that year.
After Lachie Whitfield at No.1, they picked Calder Cannons mates Jonathan O'Rourke and Lachie Plowman at No.2 and No.3 and Vic Metro teammates Kristian Jaksch (No.12) and Aidan Corr (14) with the others. Only Whitfield, and to a lesser extent Corr, can be deemed successful choices for GWS.
The club at the time was still in its initial list build phase and was keen to load up on key position players, knowing that some would leave down the track. It was building by position and happy to have excess in areas, believing that if top picks were traded back out of the club gradually that would give the Giants an ongoing suite of early choices to stretch out their list demographic. The ruck wasn't a priority.
They added another key tall, James Stewart, with their final pick at the 2012 draft (No.27 overall).
The Giants, through coincidence or preference, have never picked a South Australian in the national draft.
Collingwood draftee Brodie Grundy in 2012. Picture: AFL Photos
Journeyman Jonathan Giles and ex-Port Adelaide big man Dean Brogan led their ruck division in 2013, while Tom Downie was another ruckman on their list. They had yet to recruit Shane Mumford, but it is hard not to wonder about the difference Grundy would make at GWS now.
There wasn't a specific knock on Grundy's game that saw him fall down the draft order. He was competitive, he was strong, he put pressure on at ground level. All traits that underpin his game now, but with plenty added on since then.
His cruisy demeanour took some getting to know, but scouts don't reflect on that being any reason they looked past him.
Port Adelaide at No.7 didn't strongly consider him and Ollie Wines has proven to be an excellent choice, while Richmond was also linked as a potential home for Grundy but was a rusted-on fan of Nick Vlastuin, who was a key player in its flag last year.
North Melbourne chose Taylor Garner at No.15 but had Todd Goldstein about to enter his peak as a ruckman. The biggest hurdle for Grundy getting to Collingwood was the final one: Fremantle at No.17.
By draft day it was clear Grundy was slipping down the order. The Dockers liked Grundy, but with Aaron Sandilands in his prime, decided only hours before the draft that they wouldn't pick a ruckman.
Grundy up against Jonathan Giles in his first AFL appearance in round 18, 2013. Picture: AFL Photos
Instead they went with Josh Simpson, who had thrown a curveball into recruiters' preparations only a week before the draft when clubs learned he was a father to a one-year-old. Simpson played two games for the club in a fleeting career.
Collingwood's head recruiter Derek Hine was quick to call Grundy's name the next pick, before drafting fellow South Australians Ben Kennedy and Tim Broomhead with the next two selections. Grundy, who has averaged 40 hit-outs and 21 disposals this season, said the wait on draft night had unnerved him.
"There's been a little bit of talk over the last few years about that draft night, but I was there on the night and was actually getting a little bit edgy as the picks were going," Grundy said.
"I thought 'I might not get drafted and I'm here on the Gold Coast'. But I was really pumped to go to Collingwood."
The lessons of passing over a talented ruckman on a needs basis didn't strike for clubs, with the same story eventuating in 2016 when talented West Australian Tim English slipped through to the Bulldogs at pick No.19.
English, like Grundy with the Pies, fell into the Dogs' lap as other clubs didn't require – or didn't want to spend a top pick on – a young ruckman.
Adding some irony to the Grundy situation this week is the fact the Pies grabbed him with the draft pick they acquired from the Eagles for premiership midfielder Sharrod Wellingham.
PICK | CLUB | PLAYER | GAMES PLAYED |
1 | GWS | Lachie Whitfield | 114 games |
2 | GWS | Jonathan O'Rourke | 9 games at GWS, 12 games at Hawthorn |
3 | GWS | Lachie Plowman | 20 games at GWS, 53 games at Carlton |
4 | Melbourne | Jimmy Toumpas | 27 games at Melbourne, 10 games at Port Adelaide |
5 | Western Bulldogs | Jake Stringer | 89 games at Western Bulldogs, 20 games at Essendon |
6 | Western Bulldogs | Jack Macrae | 118 games |
7 | Port Adelaide | Ollie Wines | 129 games |
8 | Brisbane | Sam Mayes | 101 games |
9 | Richmond | Nick Vlastuin | 117 games |
10 | Essendon | Joe Daniher (F/S) | 100 games |
11 | Carlton | Troy Menzel | 40 games at Carlton, 4 at Adelaide |
12 | GWS | Kristian Jaksch | 7 games at GWS, 7 games at Carlton |
13 | Gold Coast | Jesse Lonergan | 60 games |
14 | GWS | Aidan Corr | 75 games |
15 | North Melbourne | Taylor Garner | 34 games |
16 | Geelong | Jackson Thurlow | 46 games |
17 | Fremantle | Josh Simpson | 2 games |
18 | Collingwood | Brodie Grundy | 107 games |