Can the Pies make the finals?
As brave as Collingwood has been this season, it has defeated just one of the existing top-eight teams – a 17-point win over North Melbourne in round nine. If the Magpies are to return to the finals after missing last year from an eerily similar late-season slump, they will need to knock over the Sydney Swans (fifth), Richmond (seventh) and the Cats (eighth), along with the 15th-placed Bombers. Collingwood's six-game losing streak, which was ended by an 18-point win over Carlton at the weekend, emphasised the gap between it and the top teams.
It starts on Friday night against the Swans, who face their own form dilemmas.
R20 v Sydney Swans, SCG, Friday night
Last time: A masterclass from Collingwood skipper Scott Pendlebury helped power the Magpies to a 20-point win over the Sydney Swans in round two last season. Pendlebury notched 33 touches (16 contested), 10 tackles and nine clearances to dominate after quarter-time. Young backman Jack Frost also executed a sterling defensive job on Swans spearhead Lance Franklin, keeping him to two goals.
Recent history:
R2, 2014, Won by 20 points, ANZ Stadium
R20, 2013, Won by 29 points, ANZ Stadium
R9, 2013, Lost by 47 points, MCG
Match preview: Swans v Magpies
R21 v Richmond, MCG, Saturday
Last time: Collingwood remained in control for large portions of its round seven showdown with Richmond, only to be overrun late in the game. After kicking four goals to the Tigers' one in the opening term, the Magpies conceded eight goals to three in a 36-point turnaround. Nathan Buckley rued his side's ability to stick their tackles as it lost to Richmond for the first time since 2007.
Recent history:
R7, 2015, Lost by five points, MCG
R4, 2014, Won by 38 points, MCG
R4, 2013, Won by 21 points, MCG
R22 v Geelong, MCG, Friday night
Last time: Nathan Buckley's men allowed Geelong to kick the opening seven goals of their round six showdown, which formed an 11-goal-to-two first half. Poor kicking in front of goal again came back to bite the Magpies, while they allowed the run-and-gun Cats far too much space to operate in as Tom Hawkins' influence became too hard to curtail.
Recent history:
R6, 2015, Lost by 41 points, MCG
R3, 2014, Lost by 11 points, MCG
R8, 2013, Won by six points, MCG
R23 v Essendon, MCG, Sunday
Last time: Unrelenting pressure around the ball was the key element in Collingwood's 20-point win over Essendon on Anzac Day earlier in the year. Young defender Paul Seedsman dazzled across half-back in the cold conditions, racking up 31 possessions and 14 inside 50s. After leading by one point at half-time, the Magpies powered away in the second half, piling on five goals to the Bombers' two to seal their fifth victory from the past six Anzac Day clashes.
Recent history:
R4, 2015, Won by 20 points, MCG
R17, 2014, Lost by 64 points, MCG
R6, 2014, Won by 23 points, MCG
Would missing the finals be a failure? Missing September action will be viewed as a failure internally, but 2015 was always considered a year to get the wheels in motion to building a list for the club's next premiership assault. The Pies have reaped the rewards of developing Jordan De Goey, Darcy Moore, Brayden Maynard, Corey Gault, Matt Scharenberg, Jackson Ramsay, Jonathon Marsh and Adam Oxley who have all shown positive signs this season. Taylor Adams has stamped himself as a bona-fide AFL midfielder, and if the club's pursuit of Adam Treloar proves fruitful then all of a sudden the midfield has a nice balance of ball winners and classy outside players, to complement the cream of Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom.
Our verdict: No. The Magpies face an uphill battle to make finals and it is difficult to see them toppling the Swans, the Tigers and the Cats in a make-or-break three-week period. Collingwood should salute against the Bombers, but that won't be enough. The return of Ben Reid and Travis Cloke (from a calf injury) gives Collingwood hope, but it may have left its run too late.
