AFTER an up and down start to Buddy Franklin's season the obvious question continues to be asked: can Buddy, who has just celebrated his 27th birthday, live up to his celebrated $10 million, nine-year deal?
More pointedly, from a statistical point of view, can Buddy's nine years with the Sydney Swans be anywhere near as good as his first nine were at Hawthorn?
If it was measured purely on goals kicked, the answer would most definitely be 'no' but it's not as simple as that.
Although Franklin still wears number 23, his on-field numbers have changed.
In his time at Hawthorn, Franklin evolved from a forward in 2008, who gained 65 per cent of his disposals inside the forward 50, to a midfielder/forward in 2013 collecting just 46.5 per cent of his disposals inside 50.
In his remarkable 2008 season, when he kicked 113 goals (and, unbelievably, 88 behinds too) to lead the Hawks to a premiership, he kicked 27.7 per cent of the team's goals.
Last year he kicked 60 goals, a mere 17 per cent of his team's total.
He still carried the aura all sports stars do but he didn't finish in the top 10 in the Hawks' best and fairest and kicked just four goals in the finals when opponents were at their hottest.
In five years he became a different model on the ground, yet his superstar status increased.
In recent times he has also became less of a target for his teammates as they look for a forward inside 50.
In 2011 he was the target 45.7 per cent of forward forays. That dropped to 40.3 in 2012, then 28.3 as the Hawks presumably prepared for life without Buddy.
| Fwd 50 | Midfield | Def 50 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 65.2% | 32.8% | 2.0% |
| 2008 | 69.2% | 28.7% | 2.1% |
| 2009 | 51.3% | 43.4% | 5.4% |
| 2010 | 47.2% | 50.9% | 1.9% |
| 2011 | 55.1% | 41.9% | 3.0% |
| 2012 | 53.7% | 45.7% | 0.6% |
| 2013 | 46.5% | 52.0% | 1.5% |
| 2014 | 35.7% | 64.3% | 0.0% |
At the Swans he has been targeted just 30.4 per cent of the time as he pushes further up the ground.
His scoring assists have increased in that time from an average below one per game from 2008-2010 to 1.5 a game in the past three completed seasons.
Never great overhead, Franklin's average marks per game hovered between 5.2 and 6.3 from 2007 until 2012. Then last season he took just 4.1 marks per game, with 1.2 being contested.
He can tackle, averaging 2.6 a game over his career and he is giving away fewer free kicks than he did in the years he regularly gave away about one-and-a-half more free kicks than he was awarded.
| Percentage of team's kicks to Franklin when kicking to a target inside 50 | |
|---|---|
| 2010 | 36.9% |
| 2011 | 45.7% |
| 2012 | 40.3% |
| 2013 | 28.3% |
| 2014 | 30.4% |
Buddy's kicking efficiency has improved too, sitting above his career average of 58.9 in four of the past five seasons.
So what do all these numbers mean?
The magic Buddy makes means he is a tough player to assess purely on statistics and there is no doubt he kicks team-lifting, season-defining goals regularly.
His presence also creates anxiety among defenders unless they have nerves of steel.
But because he is more predictable and he spends less time close to goal, he no longer makes defenders freeze like bushwalkers who cross paths with a grumpy snake.
He'll still hurt teams but how frequently he does in the future remains open to debate.
Team defence has made life harder for Franklin.
In his early days he drew an extra man and made both opponents look silly. Now he draws men from all angles.
| Franklin's percentage of team's goals by season | |
|---|---|
| 2007 | 25.1% |
| 2008 | 27.7% |
| 2009 | 24.7% |
| 2010 | 26.8% |
| 2011 | 25.2% |
| 2012 | 22.8% |
| 2013 | 17.0% |
| 2014 | 15.2% |
Perhaps Kurt Tippett will make the big difference the Swans hope or they can find a creative foil at his feet playing the role Cyril Rioli played at the Hawks.
But being a magnet is a tough role to play for nine years and Buddy was hired to attract a crowd in the stands, not on the ground.
Franklin – like any forward – now needs to create space for teammates, position himself at stoppages to open avenues for others and be effective even when the ball is heading away from him.
That is not his natural game.
He is a player who wants the ball coming his way, and does his best work in space in a game that is becoming more crowded.
Perhaps he can be reinvented - if he's willing to change - and become a big-bodied midfielder that sprinkles his magic in ways that are harder to measure.
It's unlikely he'll be able to spend the last five years in semi-retirement in the goalsquare, as others have done in the past.
Whereas Alastair Lynch - who signed a 10-year deal with the Brisbane Lions in 1994 and kicked more than 60 goals in a season four times after he turned 30 - became a tractor up forward, Franklin won't be able to do that. Simply, it's just not part of his game.
Lance Franklin marks in front of the outreached arm of Crow Daniel Talia. Picture: AFL Media
So the challenge for Sydney Swans coach John Longmire will be tofind a role that suits Buddy's athleticism and power off the mark.
For the fans (and Buddy) it might be best to give him free rein and see what havoc he can create.
At a club that spent the past 15 seasons sacrificing personal gloryfor team success, that would be radical and unlikely to be conducive totop four finishes.
Those we spoke to for this column suspect the Swans recruited a solo star that will have to play a role.
However, the Buddy we fell in love with was not a role player - nor is it what he was born to be.
Many guess that although great days lie ahead for Buddy, his best years are behind him.
Stats supplied by Champion Data
