THIS year's final eight looks set to be in flux until round 23 given the evenness of the premiership contenders, but history suggests being on top after 15 rounds is certainly the place to be.

Of the past 16 completed seasons dating back to 2000, 10 teams in first place on the ladder after 15 rounds have made the Grand Final, with six claiming the premiership.

It bodes well for Hawthorn, who have topped the ladder at round 15 in two of the past three years en route to flags and sit in No.1 position again heading into Thursday night’s clash with Port Adelaide.

AFL.com.au took a look at the ladder-leaders at round 15 since 2000 to see how their respective seasons finished. 

2000

Premiers: Essendon (1st at round 15 with 15 wins)
Top of the ladder at round 15: Essendon (15 wins)
Essendon's dominance in 2000 started in the opening round and continued through to the Grand Final, when it was far too strong for Melbourne and won its 16th flag by 60 points. The Bombers produced the best single season in the game's history, winning the first 20 matches a close loss to the Western Bulldogs in round 21 – their only defeat of the year.

2001

Premiers: Brisbane Lions (3rd at round 15 with 10 wins)
Top of the ladder at round 15: Essendon (13 wins)
The Lions’ pursuit of a breakthrough flag started shakily, losing five of their first nine games in 2001. The turnaround started with their victory over Essendon in round 10, which brought the famous 'If it bleeds, you can kill it' line from coach Leigh Matthews in the lead-up. The Bombers' stumbles with injury later in the year and the Lions' growing confidence saw them overcome Essendon in a sun-drenched Grand Final.

2002

Premiers: Brisbane Lions (2nd at round 15 with 11 wins)
Top of the ladder at round 15: Port Adelaide (12 wins)
The Lions won 10 of 11 games between rounds 11-21 to set up their assault on back-to-back flags. Collingwood and Port Adelaide were the two main contenders throughout the season, but the Lions' September experience won out in a tight and wet Grand Final against the Magpies. The Lions saluted by nine points to take out the premiership.

2003

Premiers: Brisbane Lions (3rd at round 15 with 10 wins)
Top of the ladder at round 15: Port Adelaide (11 wins)
The Lions suffered seven losses in the home and away season in 2003, but again were there when it mattered. However their passage to a third successive premiership was a little different in 2003, given they lost their qualifying final to Collingwood and needed to beat the Sydney Swans in a preliminary final in Sydney to progress to the season finale. They managed that and then easily accounted for flag favourites Collingwood by 50 points to etch their name into history.

Jason Akermanis attempts a handstand in Brisbane after the Lions' third-straight flag. Picture: AFL Media

2004

Premiers: Port Adelaide (3rd at round 15 with 11 wins)
Top of the ladder at round 15: St Kilda (11 wins)
Port overcame an inconsistent start to the year – they were 5-3 after eight rounds – to power through the back half of the season and win 13 of their last 14 games and clinch the premiership. In doing so they shed the 'chokers' tag that had dogged them for several seasons as one of the best performed sides during the home and away rounds before falling in the finals. St Kilda won the first 10 games of the season but lost the preliminary final to Port in Adelaide. 

2005

Premiers: Sydney Swans (5th at round 15 with nine wins)
Top of the ladder at round 15: West Coast (14 wins)
Of all premiership teams since 2000, the Swans of 2005 had the lowest amount of wins after round 15. Their ability to turn a poor start to the season into a drought-breaking premiership season was captivating, and they tamed a talented West Coast outfit to claim the premiership by four points. Of course, Leo Barry's match-saving mark in the dying moments will be remembered forever by the red and white faithful.

2006

Premiers: West Coast (2nd at round 15 with 12 wins)
Top of the ladder at round 15: Adelaide (13 wins)
Adelaide looked the team to beat in 2006, but its staggers began around this time of the season when the plan to hit peak fitness backfired and it limped to the finals. Smarting from their tight defeat the previous season, West Coast overran the Crows in Adelaide in the preliminary final and then held on for a one-point win over the Sydney Swans in the Grand Final in another epic contest between the two sides.

David Wirrpanda and Andrew Embley let rip after the Eagles' toppled the Swans in '06. Picture: AFL Media

2007

Premiers: Geelong (1st at round 15 with 12 wins)
Top of the ladder at round 15: Geelong (12 wins)
Geelong was the dominant team of 2007, topping the ladder for most of the season en route to its first flag in 44 years. Under coach Mark Thompson, the Cats pieced together a brilliant year after losing three of their first five games, which included a streak of 15 wins from round six to 20. Their standing as the best team in the competition was underlined by a record 119-point Grand Final win over Port Adelaide. 

2008

Premiers: Hawthorn (3rd at round 15 with 13 wins)
Top of the ladder at round 15: Geelong (14 wins)
The Hawks started their season with nine consecutive wins but were never considered the premiership favourites given the Cats' continued dominance. Geelong was thrashed by Collingwood in round nine but headed into the finals with that as their only loss for the home and away season. They were on track to equal Essendon's record in 2000 with just one defeat before the Hawks shocked them in the Grand Final with a 26-point win. 

2009

Premiers: Geelong (2nd at round 15 with 13 wins)
Top of the ladder at round 15: St Kilda (15 wins)
St Kilda appeared headed for the second premiership in its history as it started the season with a 19-game winning streak. They held top spot but that unbeaten run ended when the Bombers beat the Saints by two points in round 20 when Nick Riewoldt missed a shot after the siren. They lost again the following week but progressed to the Grand Final, which they lost to Geelong by twelve points.

Tom Harley and Travis Varcoe celebrate their 2009 flag win over the Saints. Picture: AFL Media

2010

Premiers: Collingwood (3rd at round 15 with 11 wins)
Top of the ladder at round 15: Geelong (12 wins)
The Pies saluted for their first flag since 1990 when they won the replayed Grand Final over St Kilda. The clubs played out the draw a week earlier in a dramatic contest, before the Pies overran the Saints the following week to clinch the premiership. St Kilda's two seasons of dominance near the top of the ladder amounted to no flags and their decline began after this defeat. 

2011

Premiers: Geelong (1st at round 15 with 13 wins)
Top of the ladder at round 15: Geelong (11 wins)
Geelong capped a brilliant era in 2011, winning its third premiership in a five-year window. Collingwood was the main challenger throughout the year, finishing on top of the ladder with the minor premiership and searching for back-to-back flags. At three-quarter time in the Grand Final it could've gone either way, before Geelong pulled away to prevail by 38 points over the Pies.

2012

Premiers: Sydney Swans (1st at round 15 with 11 wins)
Top of the ladder at round 15: Sydney (11 wins)
2012 was one of the most even seasons at the top of the table. All teams finishing in the top four were serious contenders for the premiership. Hawthorn beat Adelaide in an electrifying preliminary final at the MCG to advance to the Grand Final. The Hawks and Swans went on to play a tough, hard-fought decider, with the latter coming out on top in the dying minutes thanks to a Nick Malceski sealer.

Shane Mumford enjoys the approval of the fans after the Swans' 2012 flag triumph. Picture: AFL Media

2013

Premiers: Hawthorn (1st at round 15 with 12 wins)
Top of the ladder at round 15: Hawthorn (12 wins)
The Hawks' dynasty began with the 2013 premiership, which would be the first of three in a row. Hawthorn broke the hearts of Geelong to win another tight preliminary final, this time by five points in a thrilling finish. Fremantle won through to its maiden Grand Final appearance after a consistent season, but rued missed opportunities in front of goal to suffer a 15-point defeat. 

2014

Premiers: Hawthorn (1st at round 15 with 11 wins)
Top of the ladder at round 15: Hawthorn (11 wins)
Hawthorn was clearly the best team of the 2014 season, finishing on top of the ladder after the home and away season and cruising to a second premiership in as many years. The Grand Final had a twist, with the Hawks taking on former star Lance Franklin, who had crossed to the Swans the previous off-season. But the Hawks punished Buddy's Swans in a 63-point thrashing to take out another premiership.

2015

Premiers: Hawthorn (4th at round 15 with 10 wins)
Top of the ladder at round 15: Fremantle (12 wins)
Fremantle began the year with a bang, winning the first nine games and shaping as early flag favourites as they took out the minor premiership. But the Dockers suffered defeat in a home preliminary final at the hands of eventual premiers Hawthorn. The Hawks completed their three-peat by defeating West Coast by 46 points to go down in the history books as one of the most dominant teams. They can confirm that status with a fourth flag in 2016.

*Statistics supplied by AFL history/statistician Cameron Sinclair