WITHOUT realising it until round 21, in season 2022 we may be revisiting season 2011.
The dominant teams right now were the dominant ones back then. Geelong and Collingwood, both on 11-win streaks, one-and-two on the ladder after 21 rounds, as they were for the near-entirety of 2011.
And while so many have come and gone, there are some crucial constants – Scott Pendlebury and Steele Sidebottom for the Pies, and Joel Selwood, Tom Hawkins and Mitch Duncan for the Cats.
That ageless quintet remains crucial to what lies ahead, but equally crucially, their teams' chances are not reliant on them being dominant.
Collingwood's win against reigning premier Melbourne – and its second of the 2022 season against the Demons – last Friday night was proof its victory streak was premiership-worthy. I'm embarrassed that it's taken me until round 21 to realise this.
Eleven years ago, Collingwood, coming off a premiership, went through 22 home-and-away matches and three finals losing just three times, all to the same club – Geelong, in rounds eight and 24, and the Grand Final. The Pies had rock stars: Pendlebury, Dane Swan, Dale Thomas, Travis Cloke, Heath Shaw, Alan Didak and Heritier Lumumba among them.
This year, Collingwood, coming off second-last in 2021, has simply found a way to win matches against all odds, nine of its victories coming by less than two goals. That takes serious guts and dare. It is THE most must-watch team of 2022, by some margin, given its breathtaking, you-can-never-kill-us attitude.
THE RUN HOME Five teams, three spots. Who'll miss the top four?
First-year player Nick Daicos has been extraordinary. Surely he will become the first player since Ben Hart as a 17-year-old to make All-Australian in his debut season.
Jack Crisp, Taylor Adams (out now with a groin injury, hopefully back for the finals), Darcy Moore, Jamie Elliott, Josh Daicos, Brayden Maynard, Jeremy Howe (who was playing for Melbourne in 2011). You just know what you're going to get in advance: commitment to the cause.
And what about mid-season draft selections in John Noble, Ash Johnson and Josh Carmichael? Johnson has been playing with the poise and impact of a 100-game player, Carmichael is ice-cool in clutch moments.
NINE THINGS WE LEARNED Mid-season bonus sparks unstoppable Pies
Eleven years ago, Geelong lost on a mere three occasions, all in the home-and-away season, by just four, eight and 13 points, respectively to Essendon, West Coast and Sydney. Its rock stars, through a combination of image and impact, were Stevie Johnson, Jimmy Bartel, Selwood, Hawkins, Matthew Scarlett, Paul Chapman, Corey Enright, Brad Ottens, Cameron Ling.
Current Cats from other clubs from 2011 are Paddy Dangerfield, Isaac Smith and Rhys Stanley. Jeremy Cameron hadn't yet played a game at AFL level. Hawkins is still near competition-best at his craft in 2022. Selwood, who debuted in 2007 and played in all three Cats' flags of 2007-09-11, doesn't need to be anywhere near his best to still have telling impact, and has been rested three times this season, the most recently last Friday against Melbourne, for three Cats wins.
While the Pies' main weapon this year has been their collective refusal to give up, the Cats' has been the emergence of so many players formerly considered second-tier, including Tom Atkins, Brad Close, Zach Guthrie, Max Holmes and Gryan Miers. And then there is the still-getting-better Tom Stewart, who has already secured three All-Australian jackets. And as for Sam De Koning, well, we have witnessed the arrival of a superstar this season.
Neither the Cats nor Pies have lost this year since round nine. Their respective home-and-away season dominance in 2022 has come later than 2011, their one-two ladder coming with just two matches remaining. In 2011, they swapped the one-two poles every week after round two.
In 2011, Chris Scott was in his first year in charge. Now in his 12th season, he has never coached better. But he's been here many times before, beautifully placed late in a home-and-away season, with finals losses following. In the 22 finals Geelong has played since the 2011 flag, just seven have been wins. That is a big burden, yet it also means nothing to what may happen in the next seven weeks.
Scott's mate as a player in the famous Brisbane Lions premierships during 2001-02-03, Craig McRae, is in charge of the Pies. His vibrant approach as Pies coach has pervaded through all Collingwood operations. He is not weighed down by anything.
McRae in 2022 was Scott in 2011.
Can't wait to see what happens from here. And another link to 2011, John Longmire, then in his first season as coach, will be looming ominously somewhere in the paths of Geelong and Collingwood.