THE CASE involving Patrick Cripps can either go one of two ways.
It will either be Match Review Officer Michael Christian's view that Cripps elected to bump Brisbane's Cal Ah Chee, forcing him from the field with concussion and almost certainly ending the Carlton captain's home and away season and Brownlow Medal hopes.
Or, Christian will take the view that Cripps was making a reasonable play on the ball and that the contact with Ah Chee was incidental. That decision would enable the Blues to have their talisman available for pivotal back-to-back fixtures against Melbourne and Collingwood.
The decision will revolve around one crucial sentence in the AFL's Tribunal Guidelines relating to rough conduct: "Unless intentional, such conduct will be deemed to be careless unless … the player was contesting the ball and it was reasonable for the player to contest the ball in that way."
And so, Christian will review Cripps' incident on Monday needing to determine whether it was "reasonable" for the Carlton midfielder to have entered into his contest with Ah Chee in the manner that he did.
Should he come to the view that Cripps could have arrived on the scene in another, safer way then his season could essentially be over. He would be found guilty of careless conduct with high contact, with the only remaining question to answer being whether the impact would be defined as 'high' or 'severe'.
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Brisbane's medical report would then be assessed to come to that conclusion, with a 'high' impact grading worthy of a two-match suspension and a 'severe' impact grading forcing Cripps to the AFL Tribunal and staring at a minimum three-match ban.
Where the impact to Ah Chee's head occurred – and what caused the concussion, given Cripps also fell on the Brisbane player upon landing – would be irrelevant under this particular circumstance.
That's due to a clause in the Tribunal Guidelines that states: "Consideration will be given not only to the impact between the offending player and the victim player, but also any other impact to the victim player as a result of such impact."
But, should Christian come to the view that Cripps was contesting the ball in a "reasonable" manner then he would be found not guilty of rough conduct and would be free to play Melbourne this weekend and Collingwood next week.
That would likely need Christian to determine that Cripps leapt into his contest against Ah Chee with eyes for the football and with the intention to make a legitimate play to win possession, rather than to bump his opponent. That's an argument Blues coach Michael Voss made after the match.
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"I thought it was a good contest. When you have not a lot of time to adjust in those circumstances, that made for a difficult contest. I'm sure it's one that will get looked at," he said.
"From what I've seen, the arms were outstretched and it was a pretty even contest and there's micro-seconds in it. If we are asking players to make micro-second decisions, I don't know whether the game enables that. I really don't.
"I don't think he (Cripps) is there to cradle the person to the ground, is he? It was unfortunate, we hope (Ah Chee) is OK. Clearly. we have empathy in terms of that side of things. But we've also got to respect that the game is going to be evenly contested and that looked like an even contest to me."
It's a case with very little middle ground. Cripps will either be cited, and suspended for at least two games, or be found not guilty and walk away without penalty. The result will hinge on Christian's take on the incident on Monday afternoon.
