IT WAS neither senior coach convention nor popular public opinion when Chris Scott in February this year declared Geelong could win the 2022 premiership.
Coaches almost never commit such words to tape. The Cats' last game had been an 83-point loss. There was little to gain in being bold.
Twenty-one matches later and with one game remaining of the home-and-away season, Geelong cannot lose top spot on the ladder. The bold public sentiment has clearly been reflected in internal workings, with an unbeaten streak now tallying 12 matches. The latest win – a 60-point stroll on the Gold Coast against the Suns on Saturday.
If Cats players manage to find even 40 per cent of optimum motivation levels for their last assignment before finals, it will win by 100 points against second-bottom West Coast at GMHBA next Saturday.
While clearly Sydney, and perhaps Melbourne, Richmond, Fremantle, Brisbane and Collingwood, are obvious major concerns for the Cats and what lies ahead this season, it is arguable their biggest worry is how to manage players through the Eagles game without subjecting them to injury, and how to then treat the following weekend off. More than any other club this year, the Cats have already enforced weekends off for many key players, including Joel Selwood, Paddy Dangerfield and Mark Blicavs. Even the four-week Tribunal suspension handed to Tom Stewart can be viewed as a positive, for he too is now beautifully rested.
Geelong in 2022 does not rely on an individual, because many individuals have changed roles and attitude – sometimes both – and other individuals have stepped up. That has been the key to the season. Jeremy Cameron may have already compiled the best of his 12 years in the AFL, and yet it has been his regular preparedness to run a long way from goal as much as his actual goalkicking (three against the Suns for 59 for the year, three behind Coleman Medal-leading Charlie Curnow) that has been the bigger impact. Tom Hawkins has 55 goals, and has no ego.
NINE THINGS WE LEARNED Jezza might be the AFL's No.1
Tyson Stengle was never to be seen again in the AFL after behavioural problems at two previous clubs. He has kicked 42 goals, deserves to be All-Australian. Tom Atkins and Brad Close are still rookie-listed. Max Holmes gets better every week. Zach Guthrie now looks at home on an AFL field.
AFL.com.au asked Scott in February: "Can you win the 2022 flag?"
"Yep, I am very confident of that," Scott said, without feeling the need to temper the statement.
" … I can understand why there may be some question marks over us, and I am not here to argue with any of that, but internally, and one of the reasons I am really excited and am enjoying my job as much as any time in the last five or six years, is that I've got some optimism that the challenges can be overcome."
They were profound words given what has since transpired. He went further later in the conversation, comparing the preparation for his 12th season as Geelong coach with that of his first, the premiership season of 2011.
"It does (feel very different), it really does – the last two years have affected everyone in various ways, and may well contribute to how I am feeling and how the club is feeling, but going into this season reminds me a little bit of going into my first year," Scott told AFL.com.au.
"I can draw the parallels to the enthusiasm I felt then … I must say my level of enthusiasm reminds me of how I felt back in 2011, which was a good time."
Scott won his first three finals as coach. He has taken Geelong to preliminary finals in seven of the 11 completed seasons, and also to the 2020 Grand Final.
In the 22 finals which followed the 2011 premiership, the Cats have won just seven. That record is one the Cats aren't proud of. But it has zero to do with what is about to happen in the 2022 finals series.
Three clubs, three early calls, three lost seasons
Essendon chairman Paul Brasher ordered a football department review of his club in May this year. It was to be conducted by the same people – directors Sean Wellman, Simon Madden and Kevin Sheedy – who had conducted a review just two years earlier.
"We are looking at every element of the football program," Brasher said.
If that was a proper review, it would still be open. And Sunday's horrendous 84-point loss to Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium wouldn't make for pretty consideration.
But the Bombers have since made noises that Brasher's call for a review wasn't really a call for a review, and everyone, including coach Ben Rutten, is supposedly safe for 2023. Interesting.
This club's team has lost its way this year. As it has been too prepared to do since its once-regular glory years which clearly ended in 2000, it has accepted being ordinary. It even felt good about winning five of seven matches, which only happened long after another season was dead. Those wins were fake wins.
St Kilda and Gold Coast chose to reappoint their coaches for 2023 and 2024 many weeks ago, when the 2022 season was still unfolding.
Like Essendon, the Saints and Suns were premature in determining that everything was looking good. Everything wasn't, and certainly isn't, good.
Both clubs had opportunities to make big statements in 2022, but both failed. The Suns, out of their depth by a very long way against Geelong on Saturday, have got North Melbourne in round 23. Even if they win, they will only equal their best number of wins in a season, 10, from 2014.
St Kilda was 8-3. It is now 11-10. It has made no progress, with no reason to think progress will be made in 2023.
None of this is to say that Rutten, Stuart Dew and Brett Ratten should have been moved on. But proper reviews should only come with proper, full-season evidence. Decisions made on the run may make the negative headlines disappear, but they don't guarantee a brighter future.
