A PRELIMINARY final spot is up for grabs as Melbourne takes on Sydney in a blockbuster clash at the MCG.

Reigning premier Melbourne started to find form late in the home and away season, but it faces a Swans outfit which is on a seven-match winning streak.

The Demons have been hit by a gastro scare ahead of the encounter, with coach Simon Goodwin and defender Michael Hibberd falling ill.

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Melbourne v Sydney at the MCG, 7.50pm AEST

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Match Previews FW1: Melbourne v Sydney

Sportsbet's Nathan Brown, Matthew Richardson and Brendon Goddard preview the Demons v Swans qualifying final at the MCG.

Published on Sep 2, 2022

SUMMARY

The mere 2.6 percentage points that separates the second placed Demons and third placed Swans at the end of the home and away season sums up just how tantalising this qualifying final match-up is. The premiers in Melbourne are coming off a pre-final statement shellacking of Brisbane at the Gabba and should welcome back Christian Salem from a groin problem. There's a big watch come selection on key forward Tom McDonald after his strong return in the VFL following three months out. The Swans couldn't be more settled and confident. They'll almost certainly name an unchanged side for a third straight week and come into the finals off the back of seven straight wins.

Where and when: MCG, Friday September 2, 7.50pm AEST

WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?

Round 12: Melbourne 9.7 (61) lost to Sydney 10.13 (73) at the MCG

The Swans made everyone take notice of their flag credentials when they came to Melbourne and shocked the reigning premier. It was the Demons' first back-to-back defeats since round 16, 2020, and their 10th loss to the Swans in 12 matches. In the absence of Lance Franklin, the Swans were led by Logan McDonald and Sam Reid up forward with three goals each. Max Gawn dominated for Melbourne with 28 disposals and three goals but it was the Swans' 75 tackles to Melbourne's 53 that was a key factor, with Callum Mills and Reid leading the way with 10 apiece.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Melbourne
The holy triumvirate of Gawn, Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca will be out to assert themselves on an in-form and settled Swans outfit but one that is a touch light-on for finals experience. Oliver has averaged 30.6 disposals in his last five games against the Swans, with 19 of those contested possessions. Angus Brayshaw is another to keep an eye on, since moving into the midfield in round 20 he's averaging 31 touches with seven inside 50’s.

Clayton Oliver fends off Jack Crisp during the R13 clash between Melbourne and Collingwood at the MCG on June 13, 2022. Picture: AFL Photos

Sydney
What the Swans lack in finals exposure they make up for with serious scoring power. Lance Franklin averages close to three goals a game in finals at the MCG, Chad Warner and Isaac Heeney are both in the top five for score involvements since round 15 and Tom Papley is fifth in the AFL for goal assists. And then there's the sleeper in the Swans forward line in Will Hayward who has played every game this season, kicking 31 goals for the season has gone goalless just twice.

Will Hayward kicks a goal for Sydney in the round 22 match against Collingwood at the SCG on August 14, 2022. Picture: Getty Images

THE STATS THAT MATTER

Melbourne
Watch out for the fast start. The Dees blitzed Brisbane early last week and they've led at quarter-time 17 times this season – that's the most in the competition. They've got their clearance game back up and running as well – they average 41 points from clearances over the last four rounds – ranking them No.3 in the competition.

Sydney
Watch out for the big finish. The Swans have won the final term 17 times this season which ranks them No.1 in the competition, equal with Geelong. It's likely to be a hot, contested game and the Swans relish that kind of battle. They have the second best tackle efficiency in the competition at 67.3 per cent with Mills and James Rowbottom both in the top five for tackles across the season.

IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR…

Melbourne
The uber-talented Luke Jackson looks certain to return home at the end of the season and he wants to go out with a bang at Melbourne. Sam Reid has done an excellent job as the second ruck at the Swans this season but if Jackson can put in a big performance alongside Gawn, they can potentially work over Tom Hickey and Reid and give the Dees a strong chance of dominating the stoppages.

Luke Jackson and Sean Darcy contest the ruck in the round 20 match between Fremantle and Melbourne at Optus Stadium on July 29, 2022. Picture: AFL Photos

Sydney
It's hard to believe this will be just game No.37 for Chad Warner. The Swans dynamo provides such an important point of difference in his side's midfield. Mills, Luke Parker and Rowbottom will undoubtedly provide the intensity in the contest but it's Warner who can break games open. He's the striker in the Swans' engine room, sitting eighth for score involvements in the AFL. He loves a big stage and if he can shine on this one, the Dees will likely have some concerns.

Chad Warner in action in Sydney's round 23 match against St Kilda at Marvel Stadium on August 21, 2022. Picture: AFL Photos

PREDICTION

Sydney by 10 points. This is an incredibly hard call to make as the Dees look back to their best and the game looms as another nail-biter. But the Swans are so incredibly settled, are in superb touch and crucially beat the Dees in their last encounter at the MCG. Tipping their bevy of matchwinners to get them over the line again, but only just.