FOR MELBOURNE this season, it has been a case of follow the leader.
On both occasions where it has played – and then battered – Brisbane, it has been the ability of Melbourne's forwards to get loose on the lead that has caused Chris Fagan arguably the most headaches.
The Lions have a backline that relishes the high ball into their defensive 50. This season, they are the second-best defensive one-on-one contest team in the competition with Harris Andrews at the helm.
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But without a natural opponent for Andrews, they have struggled against a Demons team that has been able to target lead-up forwards with lethal efficiency during successive victories worth 64 and 58 points.
Champion Data notes that, despite its strengths as a defensive system, Brisbane ranks 14th for lead-up marks conceded this year. It's the worst of any side to have qualified for the finals.
Melbourne – through its own lead-up forwards spearheaded by Ben Brown and Bayley Fritsch, in addition to some clever and patient delivery going inside 50m – has been able to torch Brisbane's inability to defend in this manner.
In their two fixtures against the Lions this season, the Demons have taken a remarkable 24 uncontested marks inside 50. Fritsch has subsequently kicked seven goals in their two outings, while Brown has added five more.
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It enabled the reigning premier to be incredibly damaging every time it went forward. In their first meeting, Melbourne had 37 scoring shots from 62 entries. In their second meeting, the Dees kicked 18 goals from 50 entries.
Melbourne's ability to hit such targets, though, was predicated on it winning the football from the source. It's something it has done ruthlessly against Brisbane during its two convincing wins at the MCG and the Gabba this year.
In their first meeting – a round 15 clash in Victoria – the Demons kicked 14 goals to four after quarter-time on the back of a mauling out of the middle. They surged clear for clearance, winning that battle 45-35, and finished +38 for contested ball.
It would have been a point of emphasis for the Lions when they met again – this time in a round 23 bout in Queensland – barely two months later. However, by just quarter-time, the hosts were -10 for contested ball and trailed by 31 points.
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Melbourne's success in shutting down Brisbane's star midfielder and Brownlow Medal winner Lachie Neale has played a big part in its dominance. He has won 22 and 29 disposals in his two meetings with the Demons, but has been largely ineffectual.
In their first contest, James Harmes spent 54 minutes paired with Neale. During that time, Harmes won 13 disposals and kicked two goals while Neale was limited to just nine disposals.
In their second contest, Angus Brayshaw had the match-up for 79 minutes. For the most part, he broke even in that duel. Neale had 22 disposals and four clearances, while Brayshaw had 20 disposals and three clearances.
It will give Brisbane a lot to ponder ahead of Friday night's semi-final. Along with the side's MCG record – the Lions have lost 11 straight games there and have won just four of 30 games there since the 2004 Grand Final – they have issues in need of an urgent fix.