MELBOURNE and Collingwood are coming off painful finals losses, but history suggests a deeper run into September remains on the cards.
The reigning premiers, the Demons were stunned by Sydney in a 22-point qualifying final loss, with a clash against Brisbane awaiting them on Friday night.
The Magpies came so close to securing a preliminary final spot to continue a fairytale season, falling short by six points to Geelong to set up a semi-final against Fremantle at the MCG.
While the possibility of a straight-sets finals exit remains, history suggests Melbourne and Collingwood should go at least one step further in September.
Since 2000, the losing qualifying finalist has won 35 of 44 semi-finals.
But of the 35, only eight have made the Grand Final, with five winning the premiership.
Geelong and Sydney, who have secured home preliminary finals, will have a big say on the back of the week off.
Richmond (2020) and Hawthorn (2015) are the most recent teams to lose their qualifying finals before winning the premiership, while West Coast (2006), Sydney (2005) and Brisbane (2003) have also managed it since 2000.
For the Lions and Dockers, only nine elimination final winners have gone past the semi-finals since 2000, with three – the Western Bulldogs (in 2016 and 2021) and Greater Western Sydney (2019) – making the Grand Final. Only the Bulldogs, six years ago, have gone on to win the flag.
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Since 2015 – the pre-finals bye came in a year later – the elimination final winner has won five of 14 semi-finals, giving the Lions and Dockers hope.
But Melbourne and Collingwood go into the semi-finals as favourites and unsurprisingly so, with history in their favour.