1. Collingwood
54 points (13 wins, three losses, one draw) 140.14 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 19: Geelong at the MCG
Rd 20: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 21: Adelaide at the MCG
Rd 22: Hawthorn at the MCG
Collingwood's tilt at the minor premiership continues apace but its run home is a combination of the tricky (Carlton, Adelaide) and the downright scary (Geelong, Hawthorn). Still, one can't fault the Magpies' form and even a slip or two should see them finish first or second.
2. Geelong
52 points (13 wins, four losses), 145.44 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium
Rd 19: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 20: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Carlton at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: West Coast at Skilled Stadium
The Cats purred their way through Saturday's match, thumping the Lions but the weeks ahead - especially rounds 19 and 20 against the Magpies and Bulldogs - will be a sterner test. Mark Thompson says men will be rested in the lead-up to the finals and why wouldn't he? Only a minor catastrophe could keep Geelong from a top-two finish and a perfect shot at a fourth-straight grand final.
3. St Kilda
50 points (12 wins, four losses, one draw) 119.77 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Port Adelaide at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Richmond at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
The Saints got a lot more than just two points out of the draw to a red-hot Hawks on Saturday night, with a fast-break style of counter attack producing goals and skipper Nick Riewoldt beginning to look like his old self. Even Kosi got into the act and, with five games against bottom-eight sides remaining, St Kilda should be able to tune up nicely before an expected clash with Collingwood or Geelong in week one of the finals.
4. Western Bulldogs
44 points (11 wins, six losses) 137.98 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: Geelong at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 22: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
It might have taken the better part of the season, but the Bulldogs' form is finally at the level many pundits predicted after their NAB Cup triumph. The Dogs destroyed Freo on Sunday but will have to remain on song in rounds 19-21, when matches against Adelaide, Geelong and the Swans away will demonstrate whether they are ready to win a flag. Win all those games and don't expect too many Doggies' fans to still be talking about Aker.
5. Fremantle
44 points (11 wins, six losses) 111.62 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: West Coast at Subiaco Oval
Rd 19: North Melbourne at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: Sydney Swans at Subiaco Oval
Rd 21: Hawthorn at Aurora Stadium
Rd 22: Carlton at Subiaco Oval
The staggers have found Freo at the worst possible time. Sunday's shellacking at the hands of the Dogs capped off a very ordinary month and may have put a top-four spot out of reach. Mark Harvey's men must regroup before next week's derby or kiss the double chance goodbye. The round-20 clash against the Swans will be pivotal, as will the performances in the final two weeks against Hawthorn at Aurora and Carlton at home.
6. Hawthorn
38 points (nine wins, seven losses, one draw) 107.71 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 19: Sydney Swans at the SCG
Rd 20: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 21: Fremantle at Aurora Stadium
Rd 22: Collingwood at the MCG
There is not a lot in Hawthorn's remaining matches to suggest its momentum will be halted before September comes around, although the Swans on the SCG are always a difficult proposition. Fremantle will be no easy beats either, but the Tasmanian venue will strongly favour the Hawks in round 21. By the time Hawthorn faces Collingwood in the last round, its finals spot should be all sewn up.
7. Carlton
36 points (nine wins, eight losses), 105.97 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 19: Essendon at the MCG
Rd 20: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 21: Geelong at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Fremantle at Subiaco Oval
The Blues' season was in jeopardy early in the match against West Coast but their comeback - and North Melbourne's loss to Essendon - kept them snugly in the eight. Staying there, however, is another proposition. Flag contenders Collingwood, Geelong and Fremantle bookend matches against Essendon and Richmond, both of which will be desperate to derail the Blues' finals hopes.
8. Sydney Swans
36 points (nine wins, eight losses), 105.04 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Geelong at ANZ Stadium
Rd 19: Hawthorn at the SCG
Rd 20: Fremantle at Subiaco Oval
Rd 21: Western Bulldogs at the SCG
Rd 22: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Sunday's belting at the hands of Melbourne paints an even glummer picture for the Swans, whose run home was looking tough enough as it was. Paul Roos' final season as coach will round out with games against three of the competition's hottest teams in Geelong, Hawthorn and the Bulldogs, interspersed by a trip to Perth to play Freo. The Swans may have to beat the Lions in round 22 to cling on to a finals spot.
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9. North Melbourne
32 points (eight wins, nine losses) 86.05 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Fremantle at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 21: West Coast at Subiaco
Rd 22: Melbourne at the MCG
North's poor percentage means Saturday night's loss to Essendon has probably scotched hopes of playing in September. And if it didn't, then the Bulldogs, Freo and St Kilda probably will in the next three weeks. West Coast away and Melbourne at the MCG round out a tough end to the season for the Kangaroos.
10. Adelaide
28 points (seven wins, ten losses) 92.70 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 19: Western Bulldogs at AAMI Stadium
Rd 20: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 21: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 22: St Kilda at AAMI Stadium
A Showdown from hell will haunt the Crows for weeks to come, especially when September arrives and no South Australian team is in action. Away games to Richmond (next week) and the Lions (round 20) are winnable but the other assignments - the Bulldogs, Collingwood and St Kilda - don't bode well for Adelaide's now very fragile finals hopes.
11. Melbourne
26 points (six wins, 10 losses, one draw), 94.21 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba
Rd 19: Richmond at the MCG
Rd 20: Hawthorn at the MCG
Rd 21: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: North Melbourne at the MCG
They couldn't, could they? The Swans would have completely snuffed out Melbourne's chances of playing finals with a win on Sunday but instead they were mauled by a Melbourne side that faces just one top-eight team in the run home. They'd still have to win all those games, including Hawthorn in round 20, to have a sniff but the door remains ever so slightly ajar for the Demons should both Carlton and the Swans falter.
12. Essendon
24 points (six wins, 11 losses) 84.84 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 19: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 20: Collingwood at the MCG
Rd 21: Brisbane Lions at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Western Bulldogs at Etihad Stadium
Saturday night's win over North will keep the dogs at bay for a week, but by the time Essendon meet those other Dogs in round 22, the speculation over the future of coach Matthew Knights is bound to be as keen as ever. Any points from the next three games would surprise, with the Lions in round 21 seeming the Bombers' best chance of finding win number seven for the season.
13. Port Adelaide
24 points (six wins, 11 losses), 79.91 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Hawthorn at AAMI Stadium
Rd 19: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 20: West Coast at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: Melbourne at AAMI Stadium
Rd 22: Richmond at Etihad Stadium
Matthew Primus' first win as coach came in the sweet surrounds of a Showdown but reality returns with a vengeance in the form of Hawthorn and the Saints in the next two weeks. The last three rounds at least provide a chance to end what has been a dark season for the Power on a brighter note.
14. Brisbane Lions
20 points (five wins, 12 losses) 79.32 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Melbourne at the Gabba
Rd 19: West Coast at Subiaco Oval
Rd 20: Adelaide at the Gabba
Rd 21: Essendon at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Sydney Swans at the Gabba
After back-to-back thumpings by Hawthorn and Geelong, the Lions are well and truly in the mix for the wooden spoon. But a win at home against Melbourne next week would allay those fears as well as give Michael Voss's men just their second success in 14 weeks of trying. The last four games are also winnable on paper, but the Lions look to be limping toward season's end.
15. Richmond
20 points (five wins, 12 losses), 71.40 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Adelaide at the MCG
Rd 19: Melbourne at the MCG
Rd 20: Carlton at the MCG
Rd 21: St Kilda at Etihad Stadium
Rd 22: Port Adelaide at Etihad Stadium
The Tigers' roar has been quietened by successive drubbings at the hands of North Melbourne and Collingwood, but Richmond should still hope to climb higher than 15th. Its last five games are all in Melbourne and, on form, at least two of those are winnable.
16. West Coast
16 points (four wins, 13 losses), 78.40 per cent
The run home:
Rd 18: Fremantle at Subiaco Oval
Rd 19: Brisbane Lions at Subiaco Oval
Rd 20: Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium
Rd 21: North Melbourne at Subiaco Oval
Rd 22: Geelong at Skilled Stadium
Next week's derby will be closest thing the Eagles get to finals football and it won't surprise if they rise to the occasion. The two other home matches, against the Lions and Kangaroos, are winnable and West Coast will also travel to Port Adelaide with optimism. If that all sounds great, playing Geelong at Skilled Stadium in round 22 should bring some sobriety.
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
