SUMMARY
The loss to North Melbourne last week probably ended St Kilda's unlikely finals bid, although the Saints still hold a faint hope if they win all four remaining games and the Kangaroos lose every match. The Saints started Carlton's seven-game losing streak, stunning the Blues with their speed and attack on the ball in round 12. Carlton's defence has been impressive this season, but St Kilda key forward Tim Membrey proved a handful in round 12 with a five-goal haul. Lapses in games, particularly in the third quarter, have been costly for the Blues, who have been competitive against top-eight teams West Coast, Sydney and Hawthorn in consecutive rounds. Carlton has been getting close without notching a win lately and is due to break through.
WHERE AND WHEN: MCG, Sunday, August 7, 1.10pm AEST
TV AND RADIO: Click here for broadcast guide
Sam Kerridge is likely to have the big job on Jack Steven. Picture: AFL Media
LAST FIVE MEETINGS
R12, 2016, St Kilda 17.8 (110) d Carlton 12.6 (78) at Etihad Stadium
R4, 2015, Carlton 18.13 (121) d St Kilda 12.9 (81) at Westpac Stadium
R16, 2014, Carlton 24.7 (151) d St Kilda 10.6 (66) at Etihad Stadium
R8, 2014, Carlton 15.11 (101) d St Kilda 9.15 (69) at Etihad Stadium
R16, 2013, Carlton 16.14 (110) d St Kilda 10.14 (74) at Etihad Stadium
THE SIX POINTS
1.Tim Membrey booted five goals and Sebastian Ross had 32 disposals in the Saints' convincing win in round 12. Dale Thomas had 31 touches for the Blues. St Kilda won the inside 50s count 63-48.
2. St Kilda is the top-ranked team for disposal efficiency, operating at 75.2 per cent. Carlton isn't far behind, ranked third at 74.7 per cent.
3. Both clubs have struggled in clearances this season. The Saints are 14th at an average of 34.9 and the Blues 15th at 34.7.
4. St Kilda has won the past four games between these two clubs at the MCG. The Blues have not defeated the Saints at the MCG since 1998.
5. In the past three rounds against top-eight teams the Blues have lost by an average margin of only 11 points, restricting their opposition to only 76 points a game.
6. Saint Jade Gresham is the fourth-ranked first-year player in Schick AFL Player Ratings, one spot ahead of young Blue Jacob Weitering. Gresham is in 431st spot overall with 145.4 points and Weitering 449th with 137.2 points.
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR … Andrew Walker
The veteran announced his retirement this week after being plagued by chronic soreness in his left knee and will play his farewell game on Sunday. The Blues would love to give the versatile Walker the perfect send-off with a victory in his 202nd and final game for the Blues.
PREDICTION: Carlton by 11 points
