Last Monday night, 21 players were selected in the opening round of the NAB AFL Draft. This is the inside story of the first round of picks – the bids, the bluffs, the wheeling and dealing, the trades that didn't happen and how things could have looked very, very different. 

HOURS before this year's NAB AFL Draft, Essendon held all the cards.

The Bombers had dangled their No.4 pick up for trade and had received bites. Whichever way they went next – hold and pick or trade and go – would have a very real impact on the top order of the draft.

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Melbourne had upped its offer and was keen on the prized selection. Gold Coast was keeping tabs on the situation and was ready to jump up the board if needed. The Western Bulldogs had floated their interest, as had Adelaide, while Sydney had also thrown up its best offer.

But just before proceedings started, clubs became aware the Bombers were set to hold onto their pick and they went on to select midfielder Elijah Tsatas.

Had they done the deal with Melbourne, though, the alternate draft universe would have seen Bailey Humphrey become a Demon, Reuben Ginbey join Gold Coast, Geelong choose between Tsatas and Jhye Clark and the Eagles likely land Mattaes Phillipou.

We'll call it the 'Bailey butterfly effect' coming into play: the interconnected nature of one draft pick to the next to the next, the domino of each club's single decision having a say on proceedings much deeper in the night.

The addition of live trading since 2018 has only enhanced the tactical aspect of the draft, as strategy comes into play and draft intelligence grows harder to keep and even more valuable to attain. Only one trade was made in the first round of this year's draft – between Sydney and Hawthorn – but hundreds more potential deals, options and scenarios were played out inside clubs and between list bosses and recruiting managers. 

The main mystery this year surrounded the Bombers, who held what was being viewed as the first 'live' selection of the draft given Greater Western Sydney was locked in on Aaron Cadman and North Melbourne was set on Harry Sheezel and George Wardlaw. 

A week before the draft, the Giants had informed Cadman they were going to draft him, but also canvassed his thoughts on being the No.1 pick outright or whether they should instead bid on Brisbane father-son Will Ashcroft. Cadman's take was that if you're going to be No.2, you may as well be the No.1, with the impressive key forward wearing his Giants jumper and broad grin everywhere he went on draft night.

The Giants hadn't told the Lions they were not going to bid on Ashcroft, but Brisbane had made points plans to match the bid for the gun youngster at No.2 when North Melbourne called his name.

The Roos, who landed picks No.2 and 3 in the Continental Tyres AFL Trade Period as seven of the top 12 selections changed hands, were locked in on mercurial forward Sheezel and hard midfielder Wardlaw with their pair of early selections. St Kilda, using pick No.9 and Hunter Clark, had tried to get up to pick No.3 at the end of the Trade Period but the Roos had been set on their duo for some time.

But that didn't stop Melbourne having a throw at the stumps. A week out from the draft, the Demons went to North Melbourne (who held pick No.3), Essendon (No.4) and Gold Coast (No.5) with an offer of two future first-round picks (one tied to Melbourne's finishing position and another tied to Fremantle). None of the clubs were keen to move, but it did stir some thought from the Bombers.

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Despite being knocked back, Melbourne continued to be aggressive with its draft hand. Humphrey, the powerful midfielder/forward, was in their sights, and pick No.4 appealed as it would have given the Dees first choice of the 'open' pool given the top three were set. Days before the draft, another deal was proposed: pick 13 in this year's draft and the two future first-rounders in exchange for Essendon's picks No.4 and 22.

Essendon weighed it up. Spreading the Bombers' first-round picks across two years was enticing. Sydney had also thrown up picks 14 and 17 for pick No.4, with Humphrey and Reuben Ginbey rated highly, but it knew that deal was unlikely. Adelaide, meanwhile, had discussed with clubs inside the top 10 about using a future first-rounder subject to a player (likely Phillipou or Humphrey) being available. The Western Bulldogs, with Tsatas on their radar, were willing to use pick 11 and a future first-rounder to get pick No.4, but their pick was too far back for the Bombers to move.

Gold Coast, at pick No.5, wanted Humphrey to get through but also weighed up a trade. The Bombers approached the Suns and eyed off a future first-round pick to slide back a spot, and Gold Coast considered the cost of a move to ensure it got its man. If they found themselves in competition with the Demons for pick No.4, the Suns could have thrown in a future second-rounder to jump a position, with the Bombers knowing they weren't considering the same players. 

Whether the Bombers would have accepted three first-round picks for the single pick No.4 was moot – the Demons weren't going to offer that. 

So, despite the wild pick movement in the Trade Period, Essendon's decision to hold at its pick - which became No.5 after the Ashcroft bid - started the next trend of the draft: it was, to paraphrase the TV show, the Seinfeld of drafts, with a lot of conversations amounting to nothing and the first round featuring just the one pick swap.

The Bombers took Tsatas over Phillipou, having narrowed their selection to that pair and meeting with both in the final days leading up to the draft. Their interest in jumping back a handful of spots for a future first-round pick, thinking one of those two players would still be available, was justified when Phillipou was drafted at No.10 by St Kilda. But it was the same reason no other club wanted to do the trade.

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Humphrey was keen for a move to the Suns, who had also visited Ginbey in Western Australia a week out from the draft and would have grabbed him if Humphrey was off the board. Clark was next of their group.

Hawthorn's first pick had also been the topic of plenty of discussion. In the lead-up to the draft, Collingwood had offered the Hawks picks 16, 25 and 27 for pick No.6, but the Hawks hadn't been keen to budge. St Kilda and Hawthorn had also spoken about swapping their top-10 picks, but the Saints, knowing they were set to get one of their three priorities in Tsatas, Cam Mackenzie and Phillipou, weren't going to offer more than a future third-rounder to make the jump, and knew that wasn't going to be enough to tempt the Hawks.

While on the clock, the Hawks gauged West Coast's interest in jumping from pick No.9 to 7 for a future second-rounder if the Eagles wanted to ensure they could secure Ginbey, who also had interest from the Cats. But the Eagles stuck it out and waited as the Hawks picked Mackenzie to bolster their big-bodied midfield stocks.

Geelong was in a strong spot to see which midfielder got through and grabbed local boy Clark, having also looked closely at Ginbey and travelled to WA to meet him in the lead-up.

West Coast, having split its pick No.2 in the Trade Period, was then able to secure Ginbey, who had been ranked around their top four players and not far from where their original early pick had been before the mega trade delivered the Eagles two first-rounders. Essendon had floated some potential trade interest in sliding back from its pick, but the Eagles were set and didn't want to dip into their future picks to get anything done. 

Mackenzie and Phillipou had also been around the mark for the Eagles, who then set their sights on their second first-round selection.

Draft gambles get played in different ways, but each comes via clubs knowing the market around them. They accrue information in the lead up to inform decisions on staying in the draft order, pushing up the board to grab a player or being able to slide back and get the same player. List bosses and recruiters have become as good at finding draft intel as finding draftees.   

It had become clear that one of the premium midfielders would be available next for St Kilda, which didn't entertain moving back down the order. In the lead-up, the Magpies had thrown up picks 16 and 25 for No.9 but didn't gain any traction. Had Phillipou, like Tsatas and Mackenzie, been off the board, the Saints could well have looked next at Elijah Hewett, but the long-kicking South Australian Phillipou was still available and was snapped up. 

Then there was the Blues, who had been linked to Oliver Hollands ahead of the draft and selected the hard-running midfielder at No.11. Melbourne had also explored interest in that pick and was able to throw up pick 13 and other picks going in and out, but Carlton wasn't going to risk shifting back. If Hollands had been unavailable at that point, the Blues might have looked to split the selection, with Ed Allan, Lachie Cowan and Jacob Konstanty others in their mix deeper in the group.

The Bulldogs had fielded the same interest from Melbourne as Carlton did and had looked at ways to push up the board. They pulled the trigger on a bid on Brisbane father-son Jaspa Fletcher, with the bid coming where the Lions had him ranked as well. Carlton and Collingwood also rated Fletcher highly. 

After Brisbane matched, the Dogs then swooped on WA defender Jedd Busslinger. Had they shifted back to Melbourne's choice, it would have opened up the risk of missing Busslinger given West Coast came next. Allan and Charlie Clarke, who the Bulldogs ended up selecting with their next choice in the second round, were among the group next in line for that spot if things went a different way. 

Instead, the Dogs landed Busslinger and the Eagles pounced on Hewett, who had been their target ahead of Matt Jefferson and Allan. There had been interest in the Eagles' pick, including from the Dees and Saints, but Melbourne was able to quickly grab key forward Jefferson, who was a priority, with Allan and Harry Barnett others in the frame.

It was here that the Hawks started to make the move that shook up the first round of proceedings. Hawthorn floated its deal of future second and third-round picks, as well as its pick in the 20s, for Melbourne's choice, and had the same discussion with the Giants and Swans, who were on the clock at pick 16. 

Before making their pick, the Swans called the Giants to see if they would trade a future first-rounder (they held their own and one tied to Richmond) to move into pick 16 and get in ahead of them making a bid on Academy prospect Harry Rowston.

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The Giants had no interest in that. The Swans had another look and asked for a swap of picks at No.19 and 20 to do the deal. Again, the Giants said no, and then watched the Swans place a bid on their crosstown Academy gun before the Giants matched it.

It was a move that had broader implications. Melbourne had been willing to use a future first-round pick to trade for that Giants selection, Essendon had been interested in using pick 22 and a future second-rounder for it and St Kilda, with a future first-round slide and combination of picks, was also interested, although that was likely to be pursued only if Hewett was still available.

That first bid from the Swans was a curveball but their next was more predictable, with their interest in Adelaide father-son Max Michalanney foreshadowed. It also gave them 10 minutes on the clock to arrange the deal with the Hawks, who zoomed up the board to grab Vic Metro defender Josh Weddle in a trade for two future picks and a selection in the 20s. 

The Hawks already have a solid group of young backs but viewed Weddle as more than just a defender and liked his versatility beyond the backline, potentially even playing as a wingman. Plus, as a rebuilding club, the Hawks were keen to double up at the front end of the draft.

The Hawks had also proposed a similar deal with Collingwood, but the Pies wouldn't have done it with Allan still up for grabs when their pick rolled in at No.19. Allan was believed to be inside the top 10 for the Pies, who had also strongly considered Barnett as well as Weddle for their pick. 

St Kilda had continued to look for ways to get another pick inside the top 20, all around retaining a future first-round pick for 2023 (even if it wasn't theirs). But didn't land a taker, with Sydney choosing to hold its next pick and grab small forward Jacob Konstanty, who two years ago gave fellow Gippsland graduate and now Swans teammate Tom Papley a call for some advice. 

GWS had also considered Konstanty closely but had fellow zippy prospect Darcy Jones as their preferred pick and grabbed him at No.21 to close out the opening night.

Having kicked things off with the Cadman pick, it meant the Giants bookended their evening with a tall and a small, an example of the long and short of drafting in the modern age – with bids, potential deals and tactics all playing a part.