THE OFFICIAL Fantasy game of the AFL opened in early January and thousands of coaches have started building their squads with an aim to win a prize … but most importantly, the bragging rights over their mates.
The salary cap in AFL Fantasy Classic has increased to $15.5 million, mirroring the AFL clubs' budgets, to pick their squad of 30 players. At an average of just over $500k per player, you can't just pick all the guns, you need to look for some value options, including players close to the $200,000 basement price.
While we have around 50 days until the first bounce of the Toyota AFL Premiership Season, plenty of coaches have put in the hard yards with their team – including us at Traders HQ! Let's have a look at the most popular picks per position.
Ownership figures can be accessed via Coaches Choice for Fantasy Coach subscribers.
Defenders
It's a guns and rookies strategy for the backline this year with little mid-priced value found by the masses. Elliot Yeo fits the bill as a mid-priced player, but otherwise, it's the cash cows in Eagles pair Campbell Chesser and Reuben Ginbey together with last year's finals debutant Darcy Wilmot that are helping control the salary cap. Chesser appears in more than half the teams constructed so far, but he must be monitored as he's had an interrupted pre-season. The top-priced players all featured at the top end last year with plenty backing in Nick Daicos to avoid second-year blues to be one of the best defenders in 2023.
Player |
Club |
Position |
Price |
Ownership |
Campbell Chesser |
WCE |
DEF/MID |
$200,000 |
52% |
Nick Daicos |
Coll |
DEF |
$769,000 |
41% |
Reuben Ginbey |
WCE |
DEF/MID |
$284,000 |
37% |
Darcy Wilmot |
BL |
DEF |
$200,000 |
36% |
James Sicily |
Haw |
DEF |
$854,000 |
28% |
Will Gould |
Syd |
DEF |
$200,000 |
28% |
Jordan Dawson |
Adel |
DEF |
$893,000 |
23% |
Elliot Yeo |
WCE |
DEF |
$625,000 |
22% |
Sam Docherty |
Carl |
DEF |
$977,000 |
21% |
Tom Stewart |
Geel |
DEF |
$836,000 |
21% |
Midfielders
Building a team around a pair of Wills, father-son Lion Will Ashcroft and fit-and-firing Roo Will Phillips looks to be a popular, and sensible, play. Ashcroft had magnificent numbers as a junior and there has been plenty of reports out of North Melbourne about Phillips' pre-season after an injury hampered 2022. Tom Mitchell is under-priced as he'll slot into the Pies' engine room. Value has been found in James Worpel and Dom Sheed, coming off down and injury-affected seasons. The other value play in the top 15 most selected midfielders is Tom Green, who is looking strong this pre-season and a breakout is on the cards after some departures in the off-season at the Giants.
Player |
Club |
Position |
Price |
Ownership |
Will Ashcroft |
BL |
MID |
$298,000 |
60% |
Will Phillips |
NM |
MID |
$270,000 |
34% |
Tom Mitchell |
Coll |
MID |
$853,000 |
31% |
James Worpel |
Haw |
MID |
$463,000 |
27% |
Touk Miller |
GCS |
MID |
$972,000 |
26% |
Dom Sheed |
WCE |
MID |
$591,000 |
22% |
George Wardlaw |
NM |
MID |
$294,000 |
19% |
Elijah Tsatas |
Ess |
MID |
$292,000 |
19% |
Jack Macrae |
WB |
MID |
$916,000 |
18% |
Andrew Brayshaw |
Frem |
MID |
$995,000 |
17% |
Rory Laird |
Adel |
MID |
$1,066,000 |
16% |
Matthew Johnson |
Frem |
MID |
$200,000 |
16% |
Clayton Oliver |
Melb |
MID |
$994,000 |
15% |
Jack Steele |
St K |
MID |
$978,000 |
15% |
Tom Green |
GWS |
MID |
$752,000 |
13% |
Rucks
The most common ruck combination is Tim English and Rowan Marshall. The former looks like the safest pick of all the premium players and is tipped to be the No.1 ruck in Fantasy this year. Max Gawn (six per cent) and Brodie Grundy (four per cent) have the lowest ownership they've had for several years now that they'll be playing in tandem at the Dees.
Player |
Club |
Position |
Price |
Ownership |
Tim English |
WB |
RUC |
$901,000 |
33% |
Rowan Marshall |
St K |
RUC |
$808,000 |
32% |
Darcy Cameron |
Coll |
RUC/FWD |
$725,000 |
24% |
Samson Ryan |
Rich |
RUC/FWD |
$200,000 |
20% |
Jacob Edwards |
NM |
RUC/FWD |
$200,000 |
19% |
Forwards
Two of the big names who changed clubs in the off-season appear in the most Fantasy forward lines in Josh Dunkley and Tim Taranto. Dunkley's numbers are outstanding when attending centre bounces, as are Taranto's. Both look to be used more in the middle at the Lions and Tigers respectively. Toby McLean offers mid-priced value, otherwise it's looking at draftees from the last couple of seasons. Mostly, coaches are looking for the big dogs at the top and hoping that players like Connor Rozee and Stephen Coniglio can outperform their price as they did in the second half of last year.
Player |
Club |
Position |
Price |
Ownership |
Josh Dunkley |
BL |
MID/FWD |
$963,000 |
50% |
Tim Taranto |
Rich |
MID/FWD |
$846,000 |
48% |
Mattaes Phillipou |
St K |
MID/FWD |
$282,000 |
46% |
Connor Rozee |
PA |
MID/FWD |
$780,000 |
42% |
Stephen Coniglio |
GWS |
MID/FWD |
$871,000 |
37% |
James Tsitas |
GCS |
MID/FWD |
$200,000 |
31% |
Josh Sinn |
PA |
MID/FWD |
$233,000 |
29% |
Toby McLean |
WB |
MID/FWD |
$401,000 |
29% |
Darcy Cameron |
Coll |
RUC/FWD |
$725,000 |
24% |
Harry Sheezel |
NM |
FWD |
$296,000 |
23% |
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Team Vanilla
Using ownership numbers, here is a team picked based on what the early selectors have been locking into their squads. The structure is one that works; a few value picks with some premiums and cash cows sprinkled in.
Elliot Yeo, Dom Sheed, James Worpel and Toby McLean are the mid-priced players of choice. They all have a case to add at least 20 points on their breakeven (score they need to achieve to maintain their price). Otherwise, it is the value premiums. Sam Docherty is the highest-priced defender available and Josh Dunkley is the highest-priced forward, but it's hard to suggest they won't remain there for the season … and potentially not get any cheaper.
The sub-$300k players is a guessing game 50-odd days out from round one, but most have one reason or another why they should be in the conversation. Will Gould is a pre-season favourite for many Fantasy Classic coaches. Could this year be his year?
Overall, the structure is sound. Sheed and Worpel at M4 and M5 feels a bit light on. The names of the cash cows are interchangeable, but structure needs to be realistic with who gets a gig in round one.
There's plenty more to chat about during the pre-season, but for now, the vanilla team doesn't taste too bad.
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