IT IS the 'dilution dilemma' facing a number of clubs this year.
The full list of this year's free agents, revealed by AFL.com.au this week, highlighted a trend of the best unsigned free agents in 2023 coming from clubs who were in the bottom rungs of the ladder last season.
There are many factors behind this, largely that many of the players who signed up last year before reaching their free agency seasons play for flag contenders – Clayton Oliver at Melbourne, Eric Hipwood at Brisbane, Tom Papley and Callum Mills at Sydney, and Carlton pair Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay – and had strong leverage to agree to lucrative deals.
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But the remaining group of top-end free agents for this season, including Essendon pair Darcy Parish and Mason Redman, North Melbourne's Ben McKay, Greater Western Sydney's Harrison Himmelberg, Adelaide's Tom Doedee and St Kilda's Jade Gresham, all played with bottom-nine sides last year.
While McKay considered his options last Trade Period amid interest from rivals before deciding to see out his deal with the Roos, there was little reason for the rest of that group to rush into the biggest contract decision of their respective careers with so much change at their clubs (five of those six players have new coaches in 2023).
However, their decision to make no decision yet makes for a delicate situation for their clubs.
The appeal of free agency for clubs with money is not giving up any trade capital to bring in a high-quality player. It is where Hawthorn's addition of Karl Amon last year as a free agent was perfect given the Hawks wanted to protect their draft hand and had sizeable cap space.
Essendon, North Melbourne, Adelaide and St Kilda will be scouring the free agency market this year as well, but also must do so knowing that they all have top players still on the market for others to pitch to. It is where Hawthorn – with ample cap space and no top free agent guns on its own list – is in a good position to be aggressive again in the space this year.
The free agency compensation system makes it difficult for clubs to gain first-round compensation picks for losing players – Essendon (for losing Joe Daniher) and GWS (for losing Zac Williams) were the most recent to secure first-round compensation picks, back in 2020 – but a number of the topliners in this year's free agency group would attract a big enough deal elsewhere to unlock a band one compensation pick.
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However, under the compensation model, clubs' picks for losing free agents are diluted and sometimes completely cancelled out if the club losing a free agent also brings in a free agent of similar quality.
If McKay takes his time to weigh his options and a compensation pick for losing him could land North Melbourne a top-five selection after its own, would they proceed with targeting an incoming free agent?
There are, of course, ways around such situations. If a club loses and gains a free agent in the same year, they can look to bypass free agency for the player coming into their club and strike a deal using a trade if the compensation pick is shaping as a strong one.
For instance, if Jordan De Goey had left Collingwood last year as a free agent, the Pies would likely have sought to secure Brisbane free agent Dan McStay via a trade.
Or, they could match the rival's bid for a restricted free agent and force a trade that way so that they still get a good outcome for losing a star whilst gaining a top-end free agent for no trade price.
Options exist, but the dilution dilemma is a factor clubs have to consider in the multi-faceted world of free agency.