THE 2023 AFL season begins in 38 days. With the all-time drama of 2022 still fresh, there is soooo much to anticipate.
Collingwood – premiership chance or ladder slider? Gawn and Grundy – can they really work together? Dusty – still motivated to be the best? Will the even-older Cats go back-to-back? Will Carlton again tease everyone for 18 matches only to lose the last four? Can Clarko and Ross the Boss wind back personal clocks? Can Brisbane finally reach a GF? Is Fremantle ready to win the whole thing? Will Chad Warner prove himself the game's best midfielder?
There will be guaranteed drama off-field, too, as many history-shaping issues need to be forensically addressed – without access to one of the greatest brains in the history of Australian sports administration.
With Gillon McLachlan's year-long last lap as AFL chief executive now in the final few metres – a formal chesting of the tape comes April 16, at the conclusion of Gather Round – there is industry-wide uncertainty.
Some clubs are restless, a few even agitated, at aspects of the AFL's bigger-picture pursuits, particularly with the finance and player composition plans attached to the Tasmanian 19th licence.
And opinions at club level are split on whether the next CEO should be an internal candidate or a fresh outsider.
The major point of concern in 2023 will be the outcome of the AFL's own investigation of serious allegations of racism at Hawthorn, while a new Collective Bargaining Agreement must soon be struck with the players. Another strong focus will be applied to AFLW, where plans for that competition include a re-branding in order for it to have its own identity.
Marvel Stadium's $250 million renovations will soon be unveiled to the players (new changerooms) and public (new entrances, vibrant food and beverage facilities); representation will be made at a federal parliamentary inquiry into concussion in sport; at least one person – and maybe more – needs to be chosen to join the AFL Commission; the club funding model will continue to be reshaped … before the season even starts, there is a lot going on.
Since the AFL Commission's inception in late 1985, just four people have sat in the CEO chair – Ross Oakley (finished 1996), Wayne Jackson (1996-2003), Andrew Demetriou (2003-14) and McLachlan. There are no shrinking violets nor self-confidence doubts on that list, yet McLachlan's charm, power, engaging personality and mindset – which has infiltrated seemingly every workplace inside the AFL ecosystem – has meant that replacing him will be impossible.
While weaning itself off McLachlan has been problematic according to some clubs, retaining his services long after his public announcement of an exit was a no-brainer and considered best outcome by the AFL Commission.
There is no doubt that the explosive allegations contained in the ABC report into alleged racism at Hawthorn, which were published in Grand Final week last year, ultimately led to the farewell period running all the way through to April this year.
Protecting the new CEO from the myriad fallout still to come in the Hawthorn matter became prominent in overall replacement machinations, as this matter has even more complexity than the Essendon drugs saga of 2013.
The AFL Commission met on Wednesday this week, where the final stages of the new CEO search were thrashed out. It had already been decided that interviews would be conducted with remaining candidates as soon as Thursday this week. Of the AFL headquarters applicants, Kylie Rogers, Travis Auld and Andrew Dillon will all be given chances to sell themselves for the main job. Externally, the CEOs at Richmond and GWS – Brendon Gale and Dave Matthews – are said to remain in the mix. In the eyes of many senior people across the AFL industry, Dillon is cited as favourite.
The delay in the CEO process has also slowed the search for a new football operations head (that role becoming vacant in Brad Scott's appointment as Essendon coach). Among Dillon's many current roles with the AFL is overseeing the football department, so the new football boss's skillset will effectively be determined by Dillon's responsibilities post-McLachlan. Jimmy Bartel is among those who have been officially sounded out for the post.
While likely being protected from the inevitable public fallout of the initial stages of the AFL findings in the Hawthorn racism allegations, the new AFL CEO will still be faced with a complex mess.
The ABC published damning allegations of racism at Hawthorn in late September. The claims were also contained in a report commissioned by the Hawthorn Football Club, the contents then forwarded to the AFL. Former Hawthorn coaches Alastair Clarkson and Chris Fagan, respectively at North Melbourne and Brisbane, stood themselves down only to rescind those decisions days later. AFL commissioner Andrew Newbold, a former Hawks president, removed himself from AFL involvement.
The AFL appointed a four-person independent panel to investigate the issue. Some of the people interviewed in the Hawks' report have chosen not to partake in the AFL inquiry due to a lack of trust in the process and a refusal to be subjected to reliving the alleged distressing issues.
So many aspects of this Hawthorn racism matter are disturbing, starting with the actual allegations – ranging from urging a player to terminate a pregnancy, to forcing a player to separate from a partner – through to the fact that the initial report was completed without any form of contact, let alone a formal right of reply, for those being accused.
While sanctions are impossible to predict and a long way from even being considered by the AFL, I would be surprised if Hawthorn – the club – escaped penalty, possibly in the form of the removal of national draft picks. Even allowing for the specific timeframe of investigation into racism being 2008-16 (why not before and after those dates?), the Hawks' actual plan to investigate racism may have been pure. But their execution has angered several clubs, particularly the charter of investigation.
There is zero chance of an outcome in this matter which will appease everyone, and legal action is all but guaranteed beyond the AFL findings. Another AFL industry lawyer-off.
The CBA with players has expired and needs urgent signing. There is strong intent from both the AFL Players Association, which received the League's financial forecast documentation before Christmas, and the AFL to broker a deal that would jointly cover the key conditions for men and women players.
In the monetary clauses of the new document, the players, buoyed by the fresh broadcast deal that will reap $4.5 billion in 2025-31, will be seeking a 15 per cent increase. It will take time, but it will be worked out without a strike threat. It always is in the AFL.
The AFL is expected to commit to starting the next AFLW season at the same time as the recently finished one – in the post-round 23 bye weekend of the men's season. Initial debriefs of AFLW Season 7 have been resoundingly supportive of that timeframe.
There is a growing view of people connected with the running of the AFLW competition for a change in how the game is presented to the public, that it should seek to separate itself as a competition and brand, and that is expected to lead to bespoke initiatives across all media platforms.
The Tasmanian licence is now effectively out of the AFL's hands, and firmly in the control of the Albanese federal government. About $240 million is being hoped for from the federal government, which would be added to $375 million committed by the state government, $15 million by the AFL, and about $80 million from the private sector in order for a new 23,000-seat stadium to be built in Hobart.
Other changes to the AFL's landscape in 2023 will come in the form of Marvel Stadium's $250 million renovation, an appearance in some form (possibly a written submission) at a recently commenced Senate inquiry into concussion in sport, further analysis of funds distributed to clubs, and the likely addition of at least one new member to the commission.
The 2023 season, in and out of venues, is again guaranteed to be blockbuster.