AFTER five rounds, Essendon's sample size is now big enough to see the trends. 'BradBall' is building.
The Bombers under coach Brad Scott notched their most significant win of the season – possibly many seasons – on Saturday when they crunched Melbourne at Adelaide Oval. It sees them enter next Tuesday's Anzac Day clash with Collingwood inside the top four and with a 4-1 record.
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Scott and the Bombers are in for the long game on Essendon's development, but the rise in a short space is obvious.
Defensively, the Bombers are one of the leading teams in the competition right now – a compliment rarely afforded to Essendon in the past.
They rank third best for points conceded on average (77.8 a game), which is three goals better than last year, when they ranked 16th. They also sit second in points from turnover differential, having been 15th in the AFL for that statistic last year.
Champion Data also shows they sit third for scores against per inside-50 entry, having been third last for that category in their dismal 2022 campaign.
Where Brendon McCullum's 'BazBall' has transformed England's Test cricket team with an all-out attacking philosophy, the Bombers' 'BradBall' is being built on settling the basics, simplifying roles, retaining good things (their disposal efficiency is No.1 in the AFL but also was last year) and focusing on consistency.
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The Bombers' 27-point win over the Demons also saw them raise their average score across the first five weeks to 99.6 points, with their defeat against St Kilda in round three – when they were restricted to 74 points – their only loss.
Games against Hawthorn, Greater Western Sydney and Gold Coast – all sides who didn't make the finals last year – have had an effect on the numbers, however the Bombers have lifted their contested possession and post-clearance pressure differentials to be ranked in the top four in the League, while they are also ranked fourth for time in forward half differential.
A measure of Scott's method for the Bombers, who are the third-youngest list in the competition, can be seen in their mark play on percentage. Last season, the Bombers were last in the AFL in this, but now sit seventh.
How Scott is using his players is instructive, too, of the longer-term goal.
Save for Kyle Langford, who is having a strong campaign as an effective Mr. Fix-It, Scott has settled his players in their best positions. Andrew McGrath has been much more effective as a half-back, and his exit has opened up more midfield time for others.
Where other clubs rotate big numbers through their centre square mix, Essendon is trusting its 'contest quartet' – Darcy Parish, Zach Merrett, Will Setterfield and Dylan Shiel – to get the game moving its way.
All four of those players average at least 19.6 centre bounce attendances a game this season – the next most at Essendon are Jye Caldwell (1.2 average attendances) and Jake Stringer (0.7). Last year Caldwell, Stringer and McGrath averaged a combined 32 centre bounce attendances a game on average.
The recruitment of Setterfield has found the Bombers the bigger-bodied midfielder they had been searching for. Under AFL player ratings points, Setterfield has been Essendon's biggest improver this season from his 2022 numbers (at Carlton), when he averaged 4.9 points a game to this season be at 12.7.
Defenders Jake Kelly and Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, who have been part of a settled backline group, are also in the Bombers' top four improved players, with Langford also included. Kelly and Zerk-Thatcher have been central to a back half that has upped its defensive one-on-one results, with the Bombers last year ranked second last for winning those but this year sitting in fifth overall in the AFL.
Another shift that is paying dividends is Essendon's dual ruck decision. The only time Andrew Phillips hasn't played this season was against the Saints, with his capacity to support Draper, create a forward target and also allow his younger comrade to be a threat close to goal working.
The pair didn't play together in 2021, but Draper had 88 per cent of game time last year as a ruckman. This season, it has dipped back to 78 per cent, with Phillips cutting his time 61 per cent as a ruckman and 39 per cent as a forward. Together they have combined for nine goals this season, an important contribution with Peter Wright injured.
Essendon's tests will continue to grow – it faces three of last year's preliminary finalists in the next four rounds – and the fluctuations of a young team are inevitable, but the foundations are getting steadier.
Essendon improvement |
2023 |
Rank |
2022 |
Rank |
Points Conceded |
77.8 |
#3 |
94.9 |
#16 |
Points from Turnover Differential |
+21.8 |
#2 |
-14.8 |
#15 |
Score Against per Inside 50 % |
41.4% |
#3 |
47.2% |
#16 |
Post-Clearance Pressure Diff |
+7 |
#4 |
-1 |
#10 |
Contested Possession Diff |
+7.6 |
#4 |
-3.4 |
#13 |
Inside 50 Diff |
+5.2 |
#6 |
-2.6 |
#13 |
Time in Fwd Half Diff |
+3:23 |
#4 |
-1:58 |
#13 |
Goal per Inside 50 % |
24.9% |
#5 |
22.4% |
#13 |
Mark Play on % |
28.1% |
#7 |
23.8% |
#18 |
Bombers' biggest improvers |
AFL Player Ratings |
||
2022 |
2023 |
Change |
|
W. Setterfield |
4.9 |
12.7 |
+159% |
K. Langford |
6.3 |
14.0 |
+122% |
J. Kelly |
4.5 |
8.7 |
+93% |
B. Zerk-Thatcher |
7.4 |
12.3 |
+66% |
N. Martin |
8.1 |
12.9 |
+59% |
Essendon CBAs (centre bounce attendances) |
2023 Average |
D. Parish |
22.0 |
Z. Merrett |
21.8 |
W. Setterfield |
21.4 |
D. Shiel |
19.6 |
J. Caldwell |
1.2 |
J. Stringer |
0.7 |
Essendon CBAs |
2022 Average |
D. Parish |
21.6 |
D. Shiel |
20.2 |
Z. Merrett |
19.5 |
J. Caldwell |
14.8 |
J. Stringer |
10.7 |
A. McGrath |
6.7 |