IF GOLD Coast is to address its worrying start to the season, it must begin by fixing its second halves.
The Suns' 1-4 record is a fair reflection of their play to date, but on multiple occasions in the opening five rounds, they've been in winning positions after half-time, only to fall flat.
DRAFT HUB Click here for the latest draft news
Against Essendon in round two, scores were level at the final change before the Bombers ran out 28-point winners, while last Friday it was Fremantle who turned an 11-point deficit into a 10-point victory inside the final 15 minutes of play.
In all, Gold Coast has conceded 40 goals and kicked 26 in second halves, losing by a combined 90 points through five matches.
It has won two third quarters and just one fourth quarter, in the round three upset over premier Geelong.
The result is mounting pressure on a club that expected – and still expects – to play finals this season.
So, what's going wrong?
The easy thing to point to is fitness. But that's just wrong.
TRADE HUB All the latest player movement news
Over the past five years, the Suns have built a terrific collective running capacity, with at least eight players breaking the six-minute barrier over 2km and another handful under 6.10.
There is more than enough capacity on every line of the ground to run out games strongly.
However, it's fair to ask whether some of those elite runners – including Touk Miller and Noah Anderson – have the same power late in matches after playing heavy on-ball minutes.
As shown on Access All Areas, Miller, Anderson and Matt Rowell are responsible for almost 80 per cent of centre bounce attendances.
This is terrific for continuity, but places a heavy burden on the trio that could be spread over greater numbers.
Coach Stuart Dew conceded last week he'd like to beef up the midfield numbers, recalling Brayden Fiorini against the Dockers to join David Swallow and two-gamer Bailey Humphrey as other centre bounce options.
The knee injury to Sam Flanders has not helped here, as he was set to take on strong midfield minutes, nor the inability for Alex Davies to demand a regular spot in the 22.
There's absolutely no question over the trusted trio's ability to impact late in games – Anderson kicked two final-quarter goals against Freo and it was he and Rowell who ran the length of the ground to try and smother Michael Walters in the goalsquare deep in the final term – but could a more even spread through the middle help around the ground when the whips are cracking?
Statistics provided by Champion Data show there's no one area letting the Suns down late in matches, but a collection of small losses that add to a big one on the scoreboard.
It's death by a thousand cuts.
The raw numbers are fine, with clearances, contested possessions, tackling and inside 50 differential quite even.
MEDICAL ROOM Check out the full injury list
They're getting an equal amount of chances.
Opponents are transitioning the ball from defensive 50 to inside 50 about 10 per cent more often after half-time (an extra entry or two) and are scoring about 10 per cent more regularly once the ball is in there.
Conversely, Gold Coast isn't marking the ball as often when it goes inside forward 50, nor is it retaining it is as often. The result? Not surprisingly, less efficient scoring.
The crux of the Suns' issue comes in how they deal with opposition momentum.
As football manager Wayne Campbell pointed out on Tuesday, they haven't been able to cash in on their own moments of ascendency. Against Essendon it was a 4.6 to 4.0 third quarter that left the door open for the Bombers that they charged through.
Similarly against Fremantle, that 23-point half-time lead could have been greater, alas for some wayward goalkicking.
But how are they dealing with things when challenged late in matches?
When St Kilda put the defensive clamps on late in the second and early in the third quarters of its round four win, Gold Coast's answers were to try and move the ball quicker, which invited more pressure and led to more turnovers.
Six days later against the Dockers, it moved the ball conservatively from defence, often kicking long down the boundary line to contests.
The dare, first-option-gives and change-of-angles that had worked so well for the first three quarters was ignored as the Suns opted for a safety first approach.
It was almost as if they'd over-corrected under pressure from the previous week.
They're not as far away as the ladder indicates, but some midfield help and clearer thinking under pressure could go a long way to stopping the second half drop-offs that threaten to derail Gold Coast's season before it truly gets underway.
Suns Fadeouts |
First Half |
Second Half |
Scores from Turnover Diff |
-6.6 |
-17.0 |
Oppo D50 to F50 % |
22.4% |
31.2% |
Score per Inside 50 % |
49% |
40% |
Score Agst per Inside 50 % |
42% |
49% |
Kick Inside 50 Retention % |
50% |
41% |
Kick Inside 50 Mark % |
17% |
11% |
Pressure Rating Diff |
-11 |
-16 |