THIS is it tipsters, the final round of the home and away season. If you’re vying for glory in your tipping comp, be sure to read on and read carefully before submitting your picks or risk jeopardising your chances of ultimate victory.
Fremantle v Carlton
Why Freo win:
- Fremantle has dominated Carlton since 2002, winning 11 of 13 contests.
Why the Blues win:
- Carlton has won its last three matches at Subiaco Oval, including a 26-point win over West Coast in round 17 this year.
The Market*: Fremantle $1.64, Carlton $2.50
The Mozz: With so much riding on the outcome of this match, there’s pressure to perform on both sides. Expect the underdog to get over the line here - Blues in a thriller.
Geelong v West Coast
Why the Cats win:
- Geelong defeated West Coast earlier this season, winning by 24 points in round 11 at Subiaco Oval. That victory extended their recent dominance of the Eagles, having now won five consecutive games since 2007.
Why the Eagles win:
- Historically West Coast holds a narrow advantage over the Cats, winning 21 games to 19 with one draw.
The Market*: Geelong $1.03, West Coast $26.00
The Mozz: Geelong should repeat its round-22 performance of two seasons ago with a thrashing of the Eagles.
Hawthorn v Collingwood
Why the Hawks win:
- Hawthorn has had the better of Collingwood recently, winning four of the last five clashes between the sides.
Why the Magpies win:
- This will be the 150th clash between Hawthorn and Collingwood, and the Magpies hold a significant head-to-head advantage, with 94 wins to the Hawks’ 55.
The Market*: Hawthorn $2.72, Collingwood $1.55
The Mozz: The Magpies wouldn’t have been happy with their form last week and will come out firing against the Hawks, with a win to cement their position as flag favourites going into September.
Adelaide v St Kilda
Why the Crows win:
- Adelaide holds a clear advantage over St Kilda in matches at AAMI Stadium, winning nine games to the Saints’ four.
Why the Saints win:
- St Kilda comfortably defeated Adelaide by 47 points earlier this season, in round 10 at Etihad Stadium.
The Market*: Adelaide $2.62, St Kilda $1.56
The Mozz: The Saints won’t want to drop one going into the finals and should finish the season in style at AAMI Stadium.
Western Bulldogs v Essendon
Why the Bulldogs win:
- Prior to being upset by Essendon in round 10 this season when they were defeated by nine points, the Bulldogs had won six consecutive matches against the Bombers.
Why the Bombers win:
- In the Bombers favour, they have met the Bulldogs four times previously in round 22 for three wins.
The Market*: Essendon $1.23, Western Bulldogs $5.00
The Mozz: Decimated by injury, the Bulldogs are under the pump in a big way, while the Bombers have nothing to lose in their final outing for 2010. Essendon to provide the upset of the round.
Brisbane Lions v Sydney Swans
Why the Lions win:
- This will be the 15th contest between the Brisbane Lions and Sydney Swans at the Gabba. The Lions have dominated at the venue, winning eight games to five (with one draw).
Why the Swans win:
- The Swans were too strong for the Lions earlier this season in round six at the SCG, winning by 20 points.
The Market*: Brisbane $3.30, Sydney $1.39
The Mozz: The end of a disastrous season can’t come quickly enough for Michael Voss and his men - the Swans to blitz the Lions and secure a home final in the process.
Richmond v Port Adelaide
Why the Tigers win:
- Richmond’s first win this season after losing their first nine games was against Port Adelaide in round 10 at AAMI Stadium, to the tune of 47 points.
Why the Power win:
- Historically Port Adelaide has dominated Richmond, winning 12 games to the Tigers’ six.
The Market*: Richmond $1.75, Port Adelaide $2.28
The Mozz: This match has no bearing on September action, but as Ben Cousins’ final farewell will likely attract plenty of the Tiger faithful, Richmond to get over the line and finish the season on a high.
Melbourne v North Melbourne
Why the Demons win:
- This will be the 88th time these sides have clashed at the MCG and Melbourne holds a clear advantage at the venue, with 54 wins to North Melbourne’s 33.
Why the Kangaroos win:
- North Melbourne has dominated Melbourne in recent seasons, winning the last seven matches between the sides.
The Market*: Melbourne $2.02, North Melbourne $1.92
The Mozz: Failing a miracle, this match will be played for pride only - and in that case, expect the Kangaroos to deliver the goods.
* prices via Betfair.com, correct as at 11:00am AEST, August 27, 2010
The views in this story are those of the author and not necessarily those of the clubs or the AFL.
