COLLINGWOOD enters this year’s AFL finals series as minor premier and with a huge shot at its first flag since 1990.
If they win the big prize, they’ll be the most inaccurate goal-kicking team of the past ten years to do it. But that’s not to say the sharpest shooters always come out on top.
In 2008, Hawthorn was ranked 14th in the league for goalkicking accuracy, converting just 58.3 per cent of set shots. The Cats weren’t much better last year, kicking at 59.9 per cent (ranked 11th).
Collingwood’s overall conversion rate from set shots this year has been 56.5 per cent.
What all three teams have in common is/was their ability to create opportunities. By continually dominating their opponents in contested ball and inside 50s, the Pies have gone forward often enough to kick winning scores.
They’ve also been outstanding at converting forward 50 entries into scores (even if those scores have been behinds a large percentage of the time).
| Stat | Per game avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Inside 50 differential | 11.6 | 1st |
| Scores once inside 50 | 54.50% | 2nd |
| Contested marks | 15 | 1st |
| Contested possession differential | 11.5 | 1st |
| Forward 50 marks conceded | 10.1 | 2nd |
| Tackles differential | 14.3 | 1st |
Interestingly, the Pies’ goalkicking problems have got worse as games have gone on.
As the graph below shows, their kicking accuracy has actually been above average in first and second quarters this season, at 62.1 and 60.4 per cent.
But in the second half they’re dropping away alarmingly, kicking at just 47 per cent come the final term - not a good sign if Magpie fans are sweating on a shot after the siren to break their flag drought!
What do you think of the Pies’ finals chances? Can they go all the way? Tell us in the comments below.
