LOSING after the bye has become an epidemic in the AFL in 2023.
After Melbourne, West Coast, Essendon, Adelaide and Hawthorn all lost off the bye in round 15, the overall win-loss record of teams following their week off has plummeted to 2-10 this season.
The only two victories have gone to teams whose rivals were also coming off a bye, with St Kilda beating Sydney two weeks ago and Collingwood edging the Crows on Sunday.
That leaves the record a staggering 0-8 for 'fresh' teams against opponents that played the previous week. The combined percentage of those losing teams is just 52.5 – skewed significantly by the Eagles' historic 171-point loss to the Swans.
Brisbane (against Hawthorn), Fremantle (against Richmond) and Gold Coast (against Carlton) were all walloped by rivals that were in the week-to-week rhythm.
Hawthorn coach Sam Mitchell said he was conscious of the trend before his team was steamrolled by the Suns on Sunday.
"We had a theory and we used it and it didn't work," Mitchell said.
"Some of the other clubs wouldn't have known that pattern, but we did know it, so we've got absolutely no excuse."
Prior to this season, teams had won 46.67 per cent of matches following their bye over the previous decade. That figure is heading south in a hurry.
Richmond gets the first opportunity in round 16 to buck the trend when it faces Brisbane at the Gabba on Thursday night.
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On Saturday North Melbourne plays the Crows at Adelaide Oval, the Western Bulldogs host Fremantle at Marvel Stadium and Port Adelaide's 11-game winning streak is on the line against Essendon at the MCG.
Carlton plays Mitchell's Hawks at the MCG on Sunday, while Greater Western Sydney heads to the middle of the country to face Melbourne in Alice Springs.